When the Narendra Modi-led BJP government came to power in 2014, it was made clear that there would be zero tolerance towards terror. Some of the examples were the wiping out of the Indian Mujahideen, the ban on the Popular Front of India (PFI) and the handling of terror in Jammu and Kashmir.
A report by the United Nations confirms that the government of India had managed to foil every attempt by the Islamic State to launch large-scale attacks in the country. There were several attempts made to launch attacks on a massive scale, but all of them had been thwarted.
Flop show
The Islamic State Khorasan Province and its affiliates in Somalia are considered to be the most dangerous terror groups in the world. It is known for its propaganda and the group has always been devising new strategies to carry out attacks as well as expand territory.
According to the 35th report of the UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team which tracks the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and their affiliates, these groups are always modifying their strategies.
This is largely to combat global counterterrorism prolixities. The primary agenda of the Islamic State is to take a hold on as much territory as possible and then establish a Caliphate.
For the Islamic State, India is a big market. It realises that it can radicalise many Muslims with ease by raking up communally sensitive issues. It has managed to create an image of a rock star terror group which will ensure that the entire world will one day be governed by radical Islam.
However, its plans have not taken shape exactly as how it may have expected in India. The UN report states that the Islamic Tate has been unsuccessful in carrying out large-scale attacks in India. However, its leaders have attempted to instigate lone actors through supporters based in the country.
Further the UN report says that the Islamic State backed propaganda outlet Al-Jauhar Media has continued its anti-India disinformation campaign through a publication called Seerat-ul-Haq. It has also been using online platforms to radicalise and recruit individuals to carry out small scale yet deadly attacks.
Zero tolerance
If there was one thing that resonated loud through the campaign that Narendra Modi led ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it was zero tolerance towards terror. The manner in which the Indian Mujahideen was carrying out attacks at will, the entire security apparatus looked like a joke. In fact, some of the attacks were so brazen that the Indian Mujahideen would inform a media through email and then carry out an attack.
However, post 2014, the Indian Mujahideen died a quick death. No new offshoots came up post that unlike what we had seen in the past when the SIMI was banned, the Indian Mujahideen cropped up.
In 2014, the Islamic State was at its peak in Iraq and Syria. A lot of Indians especially from the southern states wanted to join the outfit. At one point of time, the Intelligence Bureau estimate showed that nearly 4,000 were in line to join the Islamic State.
The agencies launched ‘Operation Chakravyuh’ whereby the Intelligence sleuths would pose as recruiters and facilitators for the Islamic State. They managed to trap at least 95 per cent of the Muslim youth wanting to travel to either Syria or Iraq. This operation was such a success that it managed to prevent a large-scale exodus.
The Islamic State was gaining in strength in the southern states. It had a massive presence in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. However, the activities of the Islamic State dropped significantly following the ban on the PFI. The agencies learnt that the PFI had become the feeder outfit for the Islamic State and had even been recruiting for them.
Similarly in J&K, the forces were given a free hand to operate against terror groups. The government squeezed the funding of the separatists as a result of which the movement died. This had a direct bearing on the terror outfits. The Hizbul Mujahideen was reduced to nil and almost every top commander was eliminated.
Further, the government also hit Pakistan hard on two occasions. Following the Uri attack, a surgical strike was carried out in which several terror launch pads were destroyed. Following the horrific Pulwama attack, the Balakot air strike was launched in which the Indian Air Force flew deep into Pakistan and hit one of the largest facilities of the Jaish-e-Mohammad.
A threat that lurks
An Intelligence Bureau official tells Organiser that it is an ongoing battle. We may have thwarted major attacks and massive recruitment drives, but we cannot afford to lower our guard.
The threat of the Islamic State is highest from its unit in Afghanistan. The Islamic State in Afghanistan known as Islamic State Khorasan was set up to challenge the Taliban. While at first the Taliban had urged the Islamic State leadership to join hands, the offer was rejected and since then they have been sworn enemies.
While the Taliban is still in control of Afghanistan, it has faced several setbacks due to the Islamic State. The outfit according to various assessments would have been wiped out. However, the falling out between Pakistan and the Taliban worked to its advantage. The ISI started backing the Islamic State to beat the Taliban and this resulted in the outfit becoming stronger.
While the Indian agencies may have beaten down the Islamic State to a large extent, it would be prudent never to take their eyes off. It may not be having the same kind of strength that it enjoyed between 2014 and 2018, but it continues to pose a severe threat to international peace and stability.
