One of the unexpected outcomes of the ouster of Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh on 5 August last year has been its growing proximity to Pakistan. Under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, India and Bangladesh shared very close and cordial relations, which kept Pakistan out of the loop. Yes, there was sizeable presence of Pakistan backed Jamaat e Islami in Bangladesh. The infamous Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan also had their contacts in Bangladesh. But none of them were considered potent enough to cause any major threat to India. Therefore, the growing nexus between Pakistan and Bangladesh has quickly reached a level of magnitude that has serious security implications for India.
During the premiership of Sheikh Hasina in the last 15 years, Indo-Bangladesh relations flourished, particularly from 2014 onwards when Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in India. He and Sheikh Hasina shared a great personal rapport and Bangladesh aligned its foreign policy to suit India’s national and global interests. PM Modi also pursued a more aggressive ‘Act East Policy’ from 2015 onwards and Bangladesh was a key player to further India’s eastern march. India and Bangladesh relationship gave impetus to extensive trade, infrastructure development, connectivity and mutual security interests.
Under PM Hasina, Bangladesh took serious steps to flush out various terrorist outfits including ULFA which had made bases in Bangladesh over a period of time. Most of these terror outfits were active in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura, with sporadic influence in rest of India’s North East. The terror outfits in the North East receive funding, weapons, ammunition and warlike sores in the form of remotely operated Improvised Explosive Device and Drones from China and ISI. The shadow of China looms large over India’s North East and it is more than likely that China would like to destabilise the region for strategic gains against India. India may have to watch the activities in areas bordering Bangladesh and Myanmar closely, particularly if the terror bases are revived there.
So how come Bangladeshis have found a new friend in Pakistanis. Bangladesh suffered a massive genocide at the hands of Pakistan prior to its independence in 1971. It is believed that more than 30 lakh Bangladeshis lost their lives in the gruesome genocide committed by the West Pakistan (now Pakistan) against East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). There are still a large number of people who have not forgotten the genocide. But approximately 55 per cent of the current Bangladesh population was born after 1971 Indo- Pak War which liberated Bangladesh. Thus, this relatively younger population does not have much emotional connect with the genocide and atrocities by the Pakistanis. Pakistan has intelligently cultivated the younger lot in Bangladesh towards Islamic fundamentalism. Majority of the Muslims in Pakistan and Bangladesh are Sunnis and this may have helped the religious bonding.
The growing proximity with Pakistan was first noticed when Bangladesh ordered small arms, ammunition, artillery ammunition and some warlike stores in September/October last year. Increased personal interaction between the military officers of the two nations has also been observed, mostly while touring Gulf countries. But in January this year, Lt General SM Kamar-ul-Hassan, second ranked officer after Bangladesh Army Chief visited Rawalpindi and initiated talks with Pakistan Army counterparts to formalise defence engagement between the two countries. These include arms trade, joint military exercises and joint training. So far, India has been the training ground for a large number of Bangladesh military personnel. It is feasible that our military strategy, tactics and training methodology which may be shared by Bangladesh military with Pakistan.
Another concerning input is of Bangladesh planning to acquire JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan. JF-17 has been jointly developed by China and Pakistan. Bangladesh plans to expand its Air Force in a big way as part of its’ Forces Goal 2030’ and thus growing Chinese influence in the South Asian geopolitics can easily be inferred through this move. China would view Bangladesh as another opportunity to execute the ‘String of Pearls’ to encircle India from as many sides as feasible. Bangladesh is also likely to receive support to expand the Naval and maritime fleet, which does not augur well for India’s strategic concerns in the immediate neighbourhood.
At the political and diplomatic level too, there has been increased interaction between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Muhammad Yunus, head of the interim government in Bangladesh has already met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif twice, on the sidelines of international diplomatic events. The diplomats from the two countries have visited more frequently. The trade between the two countries has increased by more than 25% in less than one year. The cultural exchanges have been permitted and people to people connect is being encouraged, which so far was with the people of India, particularly with the people of West Bengal. In addition, the Hindus in Bangladesh are still being persecuted and India may have to send strong signals to stop any discrimination against them. The new regime has to accept Hindus as equal citizens in Bangladesh.
We continue to hear news of obliterating any reference to Banga Bandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman in Bangladesh. There is a danger of Bangladesh become a hub of Islamic fundamentalism and radicalisation with potential to export divisive thought process to India, particularly in West Bengal and India’s North East. The threat to India’s ‘Siliguri Corridor’ from Bangladesh and China is a major security concern for India. Siliguri Corridor is a narrow section of land, at times measuring just 20 km wide which connects this portion of Siliguri, West Bengal to the seven states of North East, thus its huge strategic significance. India is also grappling with the threat from the influx of Rohingyas and this too has the potential to harm the social fabric of India. The demographic shift in minority population in states like Assam and West Bengal is also a cause of concern for India.
With Trump 2.0 administration having decided to stop the financial aid to Bangladesh, the going may not be easy for the Yunus administration. Pakistan would also face the heat from the new dispensation in the US. President Trump has also taken note of the Deep State elements like George Soros. India and USA are going to be closely aligned and PM Modi is visiting US from February 12-14. PM Modi is one of the first world leader to visit USA on the invitation of President Trump and that too in less than one month of him assuming power on 20 January this year. Bangladesh would certainly figure in their discussion. Under PM Modi, India has clearly established itself as the democratic leader of the Global South.
India has to navigate the relations with Bangladesh, under the shadow of asylum given, even if a temporary one, to deposed PM Hasina. Prime Minister Modi would have taken a long-term view of giving shelter to a trusted friend of India. India has the capability to make Bangladesh realise the grave implications of aligning towards Pakistan and China. Indians still have a large support base in Bangladesh, who would like their country to remain friendly with India. Our historical ties are so intricately intertwined that both the nations need each other for their peaceful coexistence. So far, India has exercised extreme restraint and dignity to rebuild the relations with the new regime in Bangladesh. India also the capability and national will to act tough with Bangladesh, if its long-term interests are compromised.
