From being the single dominant political party in India to its pathetic performance in the assembly elections in most of the big states and last three Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party, India’s oldest political party, has been on a steady downhill journey. Congress has gone from winning 82 per cent of seats it contested in 1984 to losing 88 per cent in 2019, with long-term decline in many individual seats.
In 1951-52 assembly elections in India, Congress has won and formed government in all 22 states. But now where Congress stands? Congress has gone from winning all states in 1951 to just 3 states in 2024. Over the decades, the Congress would proceed to vanish similarly in many other seats, and the trend has been accelerating. From 1962 till 1984, the Congress’ strike rate, the percentage of seats it won out of all those it contested was above 50 per cent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party lost about 88 per cent (369) of the 421 seats it contested. In 2024 the tally improved slightly, but at the cost of sacrificing their seats to its alliance partners.
Organisational failures by the party could be a key reason for these defeats. At the state level, organizationally, the Congress party has been at a loss. Of course, local erosion contributes to overall organisational collapse. The strength that the party had has now been taken over by other parties. Sometimes, even a Congress offshoot has taken over, looks at the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Trinamool Congress, Aam Adami Party etc.
In 2024 Congress contested in only 326 seats and won 99 seats. In 2019 Congress had contested in 421 seats. Scarifying 95 seats for alliance partners is not a small things for a political party. It is symptoms of two things, the political situations makes Congress to leave seats to its alliance partners, and Congress has weak organization strengths in those seats.
Performance of Congress in State Assemblies Elections ( 5 big states )
As of 2011 census, almost half of India’s total population lives in these just five states; Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu and these five states accounts for total 249 lok sabha seats out of 545. So the magnitude of political importance of these states can be understood.
The Congress has been reduced to dust and can now officially be declared clinically dead in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal & Delhi. It is a common phenomenon that the Congress usually never comes back in the states where it disappears. The Country has a number of total 4036 legislative assembly seats out of which Congress has only 653. Can we tell a national party just over 16 per cent of MLAs in the country a national party?
The Maharashtra elections marked the worst-ever performance by the Congress in the state since 1962 — the grand old party won just 15 out of the 101 contested it contested, a strike rate of just under 15 per cent. Despite being the dominant party of the opposition MVA in Maharashtra, the Congress, which contested the highest number of Assembly seats in MVA, failed to pull the weight of the opposition bloc and stood decimated in the face of an NDA tsunami.
The Congress is in power now in only 3 states Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Telengana on its own and in Jharakhand, Tamil Nadu, J&K as a junior partner in any alliance. On the other hand, the BJP has extended its political reach and rules in 21 states either on its own or in alliance. The electoral map of India has turned almost saffron signaling the rise of the BJP as a dominant player in the country’s politics. The electoral shrinkage of the Congress has once again started the debate in the public domain over its imminent decline with some over-enthusiastic political observers even writing obituaries and penning requiems.
Election after election, the Congress struggles to capture the popular imagination and inspire voters to seek change.
Regional political anchors like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) have been distancing themselves from the I.N.D.I Alliance bloc and the Congress, leaving the state of the national opposition fragmented and demoralised. In this context, the alliance’s electoral setback in Maharashtra is hard hitting. It seems that a crisis of delusion, distraction and lack of direction is plaguing the grand old party.
A crisis of delusion has a lot to do with the party’s own internal state and vision. The degree of misplaced entitlement and dynastical privilege amongst certain leaders has led them to live in a bubble.
Congress has hardly any political presence in many states – UP, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi etc. In many of these states, Congress is dependent on its allies. The problem with Congress is that most of its allies have grown at the expense of Congress or have defeated Congress in the past. Congress can only grow in UP at the expense of SP and BSP, in Bihar at the expense of RJD, in Delhi at the expense of AAP, in West Bengal at the expense of TMC, etc.
Underestimate by Alliance Partners
After recently held Jharkhand election, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren has turned down the Congress’s request to grant them the Deputy Chief Minister position despite the INDIA bloc’s victory in the state Assembly elections. Congress, led by senior leader Subodh Kant Sahay, sought the Deputy CM post during discussions with CM Soren. However, Soren reportedly urged Congress to adhere to the existing arrangement and refrain from introducing fresh demands.
Not only in Jharkhand but also in Jammu & Kashmir, Omar Abdullah who took oath as CM of J&K, denied Congress to give a single minister berth resulting while Congress opted out of the cabinet over portfolio disputes.
In Maharashtra , on the first day of the special session of the Maharashtra Assembly, Samajwadi Party (SP) MLA Abu Azmi announced that his party had decided to withdraw from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Samajwadi Party is the second largest party in the Congress led I.N.D.I Alliance.
The third largest party in the I.N.D.I Alliance is All India Trinamool Congress. Recently Mamata Banarjee, CM of West Bengal, has said that ‘I can run I.N.D.I Alliance… if they can’t (indicating to Congress) run the show,’. TMC chief remarks follow other voices from within I.N.D.I Alliance questioning the Congress role, as party suffers a string of Assembly poll setbacks.
On December 1, 2024, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal said that the party will go solo in the upcoming Assembly polls in Delhi, delivering a setback to the Congress. AAP and Congress had fought the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi together earlier this year.
