The developments in Syria are moving at a fast pace, and the worry for the security agencies is that there is a possibility of online radicalisation going up. While on the bilateral, it would be a wait-and-watch approach, the Intelligence agencies have, however, warned that some fringe elements would take advantage of the ongoing situation and spruce up online radicalisation attempts.
While the rebel forces in Syria led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have managed to keep both the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda at bay, there are still concerns about a resurgence. It is a well-known fact that with the HTS at the helm, the influence of Iran and Russia would be negligible, and one would get to see more of Turkey in the country.
Presence of Indian terrorists in Syria
Syria is no stranger for scores of Indian Muslims who left the country and went on to fight alongside the Islamic State. Some who were part of the Indian Mujahideen had moved to Syria.
Yasin Bhatkal, who headed the Indian Mujahideen before his arrest, had claimed that he had many friends in Syria who would help him escape. One of his closest aides in Syria was Sultan Armar, who led to a massive recruitment drive for Indian Muslims wanting to join the Islamic State.
Armar and Bhatkal had initially wanted their men to fight in Afghanistan but were advised by the ISI to head to Syria instead. Further, a chat transcript of Sultan Armar also revealed that two persons belonging to the Indian Mujahideen Farhan and Sultan, who were residing in Pakistan too, would be joining them in Syria.
A lot would depend on the HTS goes about its business especially when it comes to these terror groups. Giving them a free hand would mean that they would raise their ugly head, which could become problematic for New Delhi.
While the prime recruiter, Sultan Armar, is dead, the agencies suspect that some of his followers may still be around. It would all depend on what the Islamic State’s strategy for Syria would be under the new regime. It knows that if it gets closer to the HTS, it can survive in Syria, provided it does not trouble the existing regime. With the Russians refusing to intervene, it would make it easier for the Islamic State to operate.
A deadly merger on the cards
The ouster of Bashar Assad is a game changer. The dynamics in the Arab region change dramatically following his exit. The HTS has shown the right intentions for now, but one would have to wait and watch how the developments shape up in the days to come.
The HTS claims that it is here to govern Syria better. However, there would be a lot of factors that would influence the group, which is proscribed by the West. The Turkey factor and the ideological connections with the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda are things that one should also factor in on. It must be noted here that the HTS has been connected with both these terror outfits in the past but decided to walk away as it wanted to politically fight the battle in Syria.
Indian agencies say that for now, the HTS may stay away from these outfits. It would not give them much leverage if the HTS feels that it would disturb Syria. However, granting a safe haven for them to operate against other countries is something that the HTS may allow. This is a major concern for the Indian security agencies, and hence, the alert is high, and surveillance is up.
With Israel all out at war, there could be a coming together of many terror groups. A tie-up between the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State cannot be ruled out in such an event. For Bharat, the biggest concern is that it faces a threat both from the Islamic State as well as the Al-Qaeda. There are many Indian Muslims who have joined these groups in Syria and Afghanistan, and this is something that the agencies will keep a close watch on in the coming days.
If the two outfits enter into a tie-up, then there is a problem of plenty for the Indian security agencies. For now, the radar is on the web space, and agencies are looking to put down all attempts at online radicalisation.
An Intelligence Bureau official tells Organiser that the fall of Assad will be cited as a recruitment tool, making the youth believe that regimes can be overthrown through resistance and violence. The handlers would continue to urge the Muslim youth to either carry out lone-wolf attacks or join them in Syria. An image of a friendly regime being at the helm, too, would be used as a recruitment tool, the officer said.
