As the race for the White House remains extremely tight even hours before the start of the vote, prominent American political scientist Ian Bremmer has said that no result would surprise him in this close contest, though he views Trump as the “very narrow favourite.”
He further highlighted that some polls have shown Trump “surprisingly weak” in Republican-leaning states, adding that the minds of undecided voters and turnout operations by the two parties might eventually play the deciding role in the results.
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, and GZERO Media, a company providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs
In an email interview with media, Bremmer said, “We view Trump as the very narrow favorite in this race, but this is a low-conviction view, reflecting the closeness of polling and polls over the weekend that showed him surprisingly weak in Republican-leaning states.”
“No outcome would surprise me. Deciding factors will be: how undecided voters break in the final days and which party has the more effective turnout operation,” he added.
In a major prediction, Bremmer said that the winner of the Electoral College might not win the popular vote, while highlighting how Trump defeated former First Lady Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the Electoral College, despite lagging behind by around 28 lakh votes.
“If Trump wins the Electoral College, there is a roughly 50 per cent chance (potentially higher) that he loses the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote while winning the 2016 election and nearly did the same in 2020. If Trump wins the popular vote, he will very likely win the Electoral College,” he said.
In the 2016 elections, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 304 electoral votes to 227, despite lagging behind the former First Lady in popular votes by over 2 percentage points and 28 lakh votes.
But in 2020, Trump was defeated by Joe Biden, 306 to 232, and he lagged behind by over 7 lakh votes.
Trump continues to deny the election results to date. His allegations sparked widespread protests by his supporters eventually leading to the January 6 Capitol Riots.
Further, being asked how much impact the foreign policy issues and domestic issues play in the poll outcomes, the political scientist said the election is about the economy and domestic issues, adding that the two conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza matter only to a “marginal portion” of the US electorate.
“He (Trump) has claimed that he would be able to bring them to a more rapid conclusion, and claimed that they would not have occurred under his watch, but they are by no means the center of his campaign message–the economy is,” Bremmer said.
He added, “This election is about the economy, and about domestic issues, far more than it is about foreign policy. The war in Ukraine and the crisis in Gaza matter to a marginal portion of the US electorate, and neither is likely to be the deciding factor in this race.”
The Eurasia Group president further said that both Trump and Harris are expected to favour “increasingly close ties” to India given New Delhi’s global position today, though the former president has a “better personal relationship” with the Indian leadership.
“Both candidates are likely to favor increasingly close ties to India given its crucial position as a regional counterweight to China and potential host for manufacturing, and as a crucial defense partner for the US in the coming decades. Trump has a better personal relationship with Indian leadership, but under either Harris or Trump the relationship is set to deepen,” he said.
Referring to the Indian-American community, Bremmer said, “The Indian-American community has not appeared to shift its political alignment in the run up to this race, making direct appeals a less pressing issue for each party. Harris has highlighted her diverse background in an effort to appeal to a wide range of voters.”
The political scientist also termed immigration and abortion as important poll issues. He stated that the voters disapprove of the Biden administration’s handling of the illegal immigration issue and most female voters support Harris, especially due to her stand on abortion.
“Immigration has been a very significant issue in this election, as has abortion. Immigration has been a headwind for the Harris campaign, with voters disapproving of the Biden campaign’s handling of the issue over the last several years. Abortion is a headwind for Trump, as most voters favor Harris and female voters especially are motivated to support her in response to court rulings limiting abortion access,” Bremmer further said.
Being asked if the multiple criminal cases against the former president and the two assassination attempts against him, will have an impact on the elections, the political scientist said that both events had “very limited impact”.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the candidate of the incumbent Democrats, and she is aiming to create history becoming the first woman of the US. If elected, she will also be the first Indian-origin President of the United States.
Republican candidate is former President Donald Trump, who is eyeing a historic comeback to the White House after a bitter exit in 2020. Notably, if Trump wins, it will be the first instance in over 100 years of a president serving two non-consecutive terms in the White House.
(with inputs from ANI)
