The most awaited results for the two states are finally out. For the majority of the election watchers in India, the results of the elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are surprising, shocking and unprecedented. They are surprising in the context that these results were believed (by them) to be going against the BJP keeping in view the results of the Lok Sabha elections this year. It was presumed by the ‘political pundits’ and the ‘pollsters’ that the results would end BJP’s rule in Haryana and will also throw a hung Assembly in J&K. The way they conducted their opinion polls, exit polls and the narrative building in regard to these elections for the last three to four months exhibited their ‘eagerness’ to bring the desired change which, to their surprise, didn’t ultimately take place.
These results are shocking because a false narrative was created that overemphasized that the Modi magic was over consequent upon the results of the Lok Sabha this year. Congress, Indi-Alliance and their whole echo-system tried to construct a scenario that discounted everything positive about the government. They made all attempts to throw up a narrative that the farmers, sportspersons especially wrestlers and youth aspiring to join Army and the Armed forces were disgusted with the current dispensation and its Agniveer scheme; and would thus affect the change. The slogan of “Kissan-Jawan-Pahalwan-Sanvidhan” was increasingly popularized (with a design) by their echo-system through the electronic media, print media and the social-media.
Simultaneously, in regard to Jammu and Kashmir, the bogey of abrogation of Article 370/35A and the so-called special status was once again resurrected (despite Supreme Court of India rulings) to make an impact on the election scenario so as to drive the election campaign to soft-separatism and secessionist orientation. However, all these narratives failed lock, stock and barrel. They might have partially succeeded in the Kashmir valley to a limited extent, but the Jammu region didn’t purchase the narratives and instead built its own nationalistic narrative in the backdrop of the last ten years work done by the Modi government at the Centre and in the state.
This author reiterated a number of times earlier that the Article 370 restoration narrative of NC-INC was aimed at fooling the voters. The same has been confirmed by the latest statement of Omar Abdullah (the would be CM of J&K), after the announcement of the results, that “the issue of Article 370 should be set aside as the time was for working together with the Central government”. This is a significant development in the context of the centre-state relations in regard to the J&K scenario and won’t go well with the separatist and secessionist elements in the valley besides the PDP headed by Mehbooba Mufti.
These results are also unprecedented because of the fact that in Haryana, no government has been elected for the third time consecutively for the last several decades. It is for the first time that a government that ruled for ten years in a row in the state has been again installed by the electorate with a clear majority and also with an increased strength. This doesn’t generally happen unless people stand firm and convinced about the government’s work, intent and performance. BJP has, therefore, been successful in creating history in the political landscape of Haryana this time.
Secondly, this didn’t happen earlier in the state even during the period of stalwarts like Devi Lal, Bhajan Lal, Basni Lal, Om Prakash Chautala and Dipendra Singh Hooda. The ‘double-engine government’ of the BJP in the state caught the imagination of the people and they made their choice by remaining undivided despite all provocations in the name of caste and dynasty unleashed mainly by the Congress and their echo-system. The statements of Yogi Adityanath, CM, UP like ‘Batogey to Katogey’ (in case you get divided, you will be finished) made surely an indelible mark during the election campaigning.
In Jammu and Kashmir, a sinister campaign was launched against the BJP by all and sundry for a couple of years under one pretext or the other to destabilize its voter base. Thanks to the nature and kind of earlier election results of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP went for the needed course correction at many levels, both horizontally as well as vertically. The core voter of BJP in both the states of Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana remained vigilant and united and made a difference in the end. It refused to be misguided by the false narrative of Congress, freebies of the Indi-Alliance and the divisive campaign of their echo-system. BJP has emerged as the biggest party in terms of the vote share (26%) and second biggest in terms of the seat share (29) in J&K and the Congress has been completely decimated in the Jammu region.
There is no doubt that the top leadership and the think-tank of the Congress party headed by Rahul Gandhi and also of the Indi-Alliance have developed a very close proximity with the forces and elements inimical to the interests of India. These forces have been deeply engaged in destabilizing India by organising undue ill-will against the central government, unnecessary protest calls, anarchy and mayhem having linkage with the deep state. They pinned lots of hopes connected with these election results and expected that the change of the government in Haryana would pave way for the so-called farmer protesters at Haryana borders to enter and gherao Delhi, the capital of the country. Their plans couldn’t see the light of the day due to such results.
The scheme of selling the narrative of perceived defeat in Haryana and J&K of the BJP in other states, particularly in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar has also miserably failed. This has given these prophets of doom the most shocking treatment of their lives. It needs to be noted that the greatest victory for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir was in terms of the smooth conduct of the elections therein and the historical turnout of the voters taking part in them across regions, classes and communities. That the West Pakistan refugees and the other registered voters were able to contest and vote in these elections for the first time is also a great victory for the BJP.
The valley of Kashmir has voted on one pattern and the Jammu region has voted on the other pattern. The Hindus in Jammu, which constitute the biggest minority in the state of J&K, have virtually put all their eggs in one basket -the BJP. This makes the BJP their main political representative in the UT of J&K and the BJP has now an added responsibility to safeguard the rights of the minorities in the state in the given circumstances, besides their usual political responsibilities. The voters in the valley of Kashmir have reposed their trust primarily in the JKNC and have thus refused to be guided by the developmental agenda, slogans and the work of the BJP in the valley of Kashmir done for the last almost a decade.
One important issue in regard to the socio-political scenario of J&K requires attention and concern both. While no major political party other than the BJP gave their mandate to a Hindu candidate in the valley of Kashmir, almost all political parties gave their mandate to Muslim candidates in the Jammu region. The other related issue is that though the BJP gave its mandate to two Kashmiri Pandits in the Kashmir valley, none of them could get elected. Neither any Kashmiri Pandit independent candidate could win in any of the constituencies in the valley out of a score of them in the fray. This indeed confirms the argument that the Kashmiri Pandits, due to the past gerrymandering of the constituencies in the valley and the consequent displacement and dispersal from the valley of Kashmir due to terrorism have lost all chances to get their representatives elected from the valley to the State Assembly.
This author persistently struggled hard for five consecutive years (2019 to 2023) to impress upon the BJP, the government of India and the Delimitation Commission of India to reserve seats or nominate representatives from the displaced community of Kashmir keeping in view the hard ground realities of Jammu and Kashmir and the mindset of the Kashmir-centric political parties. Huge thanks to the Delimitation Commission of India, Election Commission of India, the government of India and the Parliament that the plea was ultimately accepted, though partially, and a law was enacted guaranteeing two seats to the displaced community of Kashmir in the Legislative Assembly of the UT. This is the best that could have happened in the given circumstances.
The biggest challenge now for the new dispensation of the UT of J&K is to carry the Jammu region along with it as a predominant representative of the Kashmir region; and for the BJP the challenge is to protect the interests of Jammu, minorities, the refugees and displaced people living in the region who have overwhelmingly voted in its favour. The new government in Haryana has also a great mission to carry forward the good work done for the last decade by its predecessor governments. Though the elements inimical to the interests of the nation and the Haryana state have been dusted but they are not out. They are of the belief that ‘the government may be theirs but the system is ours’. They continue to be guided by the same notion and won’t like to change themselves due to the results.
The narrative that has gained due currency after the results of these elections remains that the ‘magic of the BJP under the leadership of PM Modi is intact’. This narrative needs to be strengthened by the BJP keeping in view the challenges in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Delhi; and also in UP as well in the long run. ‘United we stand divided we fall’ is surely the moral of the story of these election results….!
