In the assembly elections that had just concluded in Jammu and Kashmir, there were 47 constituencies in Kashmir and 43 in the Jammu region. Earlier, these figures were 46 and 37 for Kashmir and Jammu respectively. Is the present delimitation of assembly segments, all over J&K, which came into force a couple of years ago, correct? It seems the delimitation officials failed to do justice to the Jammu region and that is why there are fewer assembly segments in the region than in Kashmir.
The argument here is that had the delimitation officials been thorough, the Jammu region would have got more assembly segments, more than 43 it has got presently. We can compare the voter per assembly segment in the Jammu district to the voter per assembly segment of Srinagar district and the disparity becomes clear to us.
In the Jammu district, there are 12,00,977 voters and 11 assembly segments. The average voters per constituency thus comes to 1,09,180. These assembly segments are 72- Bishnah (SC) 1,19,988 voters; 73- Suchetgarh (SC) 1,13,449 voters; 74-R.S. Pura-Jammu South 1,30,107 voters; 75-Bahu 1,21,131 voters; 76-Jammu East 1,07,213 voters; 77- Nagrota 96,007 voters; 78-Jammu West 1,06,252 voters; 79-Jammu North 1,11,811 voters; 80-Marh (SC) 93,598 voters; 81-Akhnoor (SC) 95,386 voters and 82-Chhamb 1,06,035 voters.
If we scrutinise this more closely, we find that only three assembly constituencies in the Jammu district have less than a lakh voters. Eight others have more than a lakh voters.
In the Kshmir valley, in Srinagar district, the total number of voters stands at 7,74,462 and there are eight assembly segments. The average voter per constituency comes to 96,808. The eight assembly segments are 19-Hazratbal 1,12,541 voters; 20-Khanyar 91,226 voters; 21-Habbakadal 95,546 voters; 22-Lal Chowk 1,07,199 voters; 23-Chanapora 85,431 voters; 24-AC Zadibal 1,12,864 voters; 25- Eidgah 61,885 voters and 26-Central Shalteng 1,07,770 voters.
The assembly constituencies in the Jammu district are thus far larger than those in Srinagar district. There are fewer voters (12,372 per constituency to be exact) in Srinagar assembly segments than there are in Jammu assembly constituencies. Area-wise also, the Jammu district is much larger than Srinagar district.
The point being made here is that the assembly segments in Jammu are much bigger, both in terms of votes, and area, than those in Srinagar. Had the Kashmir region been treated equally or equitably with Jammu, there will be more assembly constituencies in the latter region. This is the basic reason of Jammu feeling disempowered.
May be, this disparity will be removed in the next delimitation of assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies. Whenever it happens.
As in the past at least three elections, the two regions of Jammu hills as also plains and the Kashmir Valley have voted differently. In Kashmir, the National Conference has emerged as number one winning 35 out of 47 seats, which is almost 75 per cent. In the Jammu region, the BJP has got 29 of the 43 seats at stake which means over two-thirds. The divide in the voting pattern is thus clear, obvious at first glance.
In 2002 assembly elections, in 2008, and then in 2014, three times in a row, the maximum any party could score in the assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir was 28/87, approximately 32 per cent of the House strength. The National Conference (NC) scored 28 each in 2002 as also in 2008 elections. In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed scored 28/87. This figure of 28 was repeated thrice in a row in the assembly elections in J&K. The majority figure being 44, the parties had to garner support of at least 16 MLAs every time.
Mobilising the support of 16 MLAs was no mean challenge and it gave anxious moments as also behind the curtain compromises among parties. In such fractured mandates, with hung assemblies, the Jammu region could not be ignored. In 2002, a PDP-Congress coalition came into being with PDP having 16 MLAs and the Congress 20, out of which 15 were from the Jammu region. The two coalition partners also mobilised the support of five Independents from Jammu, six from Kashmir. It was only then that they could form a coalition government.
With 20 MLAs from the Jammu region in the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s government, ignoring Jammu’s demands was just not possible. It was then that late Pandit Mangat Ram Sharma of the Congress became Deputy Chief Minister. He also ensured that the people of Jammu felt empowered and were heard in the power corridors.
In July 2008, the PDP toppled Ghulam Nabi Azad’s government over Amarnath land row and the parties parted company. After the assembly elections of 2008, the NC partnered with the Congress and formed a coalition government. Once again, there were over a dozen MLAs from the Jammu region who were there in the coalition government headed by Omar Abdullah who became chief minister on January 5, 2009.
Tara Chand of the Congress, from Chhamb in Jammu, considered close to Ghulam Nabi Azad, became the Deputy Chief Minister. Ignoring Jammu region’s aspirations was not possible as most MLAs of the Congress supporting Omar’s government were from Jammu. A delicate balance had to be thus maintained by Omar in his governance. He had to assuage Jammu MLAs and could not afford to give the impression that he could ride roughshod over them.
The NC and the Congress parted company prior to the 2014 assembly elections and went their separate ways, preferring to contest alone. The result was both of them lost, with PDP as the single largest party with 28 MLAs, mostly from Kashmir, and BJP scoring 25, all in the Jammu region. On paper, it may have looked like all the parties from Kashmir region could have joined hands and kept out the BJP from power.
For almost three months after the 2014 assembly elections, the state of J&K remained under the Central rule. The stalemate ended with the PDP and the BJP coming together and forming a coalition government. Just as had happened in 2002, and after the 2008 elections, a BJP leader from the Jammu region, Dr Nirmal Singh, became the Deputy CM. Many from the BJP became ministers in Mufti’s government and that was it.
In 2024, the NC has got 42 seats in a House which presently has strength of 90, with five MLAs, with all voting rights, to be nominated soon. After NC’s 42 come the six of the Congress raising their strength to 48, a clear majority. In Kulgam, CPM’s Yusuf Tarigami won for the fifth time and he was a part of the pre-poll coalition the NC and the Congress had formed. That takes the number of coalition MLAs to 49, and then there are Independents waiting in the wings.
Incidentally, at least three of the seven Independents who have won were rebel NC candidates who refused to back official Congress candidates in the elections. With NC set to form a government, they are all ready to do ghar wapsi and return to the party fold. Satish Sharma, who won as an Independent from Chhamb assembly segment, is the son of late Madan Lal Sharma of the Congress. The elder Sharma was a formidable leader in his times and remained twice MLA from Akhnoor and twice MP from Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency. Given all this, it doesn’t look like Satish Sharma will side with the BJP and may extend support to Omar government, taking its numbers to 50.
Where does that leave the Jammu region from where the BJP candidates have won in 29 constituencies, an unprecedented electoral verdict? Well, on the face of it, Omar can afford to not include anyone from the Jammu region in his ministry of nine he is likely to form soon. Incidentally, it bears mention here that in a Union Territory (UT), the number of ministers is pegged at 10 per cent of the total strength. That means there can only be nine ministers in J&K, including the incoming CM Omar Abdullah.
That can mean the Jammu region being bypassed in the government formation as the NC and the Congress won no seats from four districts of Jammu (11 seats), Kathua (six seats), Udhampur (four seats) and Samba (three seats). However, the problem before Omar is that he needs to have good relations with the Centre ruled by the BJP. To placate its supporters and to address their issues, the BJP is most likely to adopt a Jammu-centric approach. That will mean Omar will also need to build bridges with the BJP and not let the Jammu region feel disempowered. Or else the coming winter is going to prove real cold to him.
BJP’s highest vote share
In terms of vote share, the BJP has the highest vote share in the 2024 assembly elections in J&K, scoring an impressive 25.54 per cent, more than the NC which got 23.43 per cent only. However, it is worth repeating here that with 25.54 per cent vote share, the BJP won 29 seats. With 23.43 per cent vote share, 2.11 per cent lesser than the BJP, the NC has scored victories in 42 assembly segments and emerged as the single largest legislative party.
It also bears mention that the BJP performed poorly in twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri. Out of eight assembly segments, it could win only one, that of Sunderbani-Kalakote. In seven other assembly segments, its candidates were runners-up. That means a better performance in these twin districts could have easily taken the BJP tally higher. In Rajouri, Vibodh Gupta of the BJP lost by barely 1,400 votes to Congress candidate Iftikhar Ahmed, who also got good backing from the NC supporters.
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