The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has defied exit poll predictions in the Haryana Assembly Elections 2024 and is on track to secure an unprecedented third consecutive term in the state. As the vote counting continues, the BJP is leading in over 46 seats, outperforming not only its 2019 tally of 40 seats but also expectations that pointed towards a Congress revival. The Indian National Congress, which was predicted by many analysts to secure a sweeping victory, has been left reeling from a surprising defeat as the BJP inches closer to securing a standalone majority.
This remarkable electoral performance by the BJP has been attributed to a combination of astute political strategy, an early campaign launch, and a series of calculated decisions aimed at consolidating key voter demographics. The BJP’s victory comes at a time when anti-incumbency, internal dissent within the opposition, and fractured voting patterns worked in its favor, turning a challenging election into a successful campaign.
One of the defining factors behind the BJP’s continued dominance in Haryana has been its ability to consolidate non-Jat votes, a strategy it has employed since its remarkable rise in the 2014 Assembly elections. Haryana has traditionally seen political power concentrated within the upper-caste Jat community, which accounts for around 25 per cent of the population. However, the BJP has successfully realigned the political equation in its favor by focusing on the 75 per cent non-Jat population, particularly Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Scheduled Castes (SCs).
In the 2024 elections, the BJP reaffirmed this approach by appointing Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, as the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate. Saini, who replaced former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar in March 2024, is a Punjabi Khatri and represents a departure from the traditional Jat dominance in Haryana’s politics. His appointment was a carefully calculated move, ensuring that the party continued to command the loyalty of OBC voters, who make up around 40 per cent of the state’s electorate.
Saini’s candidacy was confirmed well ahead of the elections, a strategic decision that allowed the BJP to solidify its support among non-Jat communities while avoiding factionalism within the party. By appointing an OBC leader as the face of the party in a state long dominated by upper-caste Jat leaders, the BJP successfully projected itself as a party for the marginalised and underrepresented sections of society. This helped the BJP draw significant support from OBC and SC communities, cutting across traditional caste lines.
The BJP’s outreach to non-Jat voters also included targeted campaigns to attract Scheduled Caste voters, particularly in rural areas. By focusing on community engagement programs and promoting women’s empowerment through initiatives like the ‘Lakhpati Drone Didis’ program, the BJP was able to extend its influence within marginalised groups. The ‘Lakhpati Drone Didis’ initiative empowered women from Dalit and SC communities to lead self-help groups and benefit from technology-driven entrepreneurship, symbolizing the BJP’s promise of socio-economic mobility.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direct engagement with SC women from these self-help groups, coupled with his personal invitations to them at national events, resonated powerfully with the Dalit community. This outreach helped the BJP build a narrative of inclusion and empowerment, particularly among SC youth. As an ITI student from Ambala remarked, “Modi ji will elevate SCs to the general category,” reflecting the rising aspirations of SC voters under BJP governance.
To overcome potential anti-incumbency sentiments and refresh its image, the BJP adopted a novel approach in its candidate selection. Unlike the Congress, where factionalism and internal rivalries led to the nomination of veteran politicians and loyalists, the BJP introduced 60 fresh faces, infusing new energy into its campaign.
The replacement of former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who had served two consecutive terms, was another strategic decision that worked in the BJP’s favor. Khattar had developed a reputation for being somewhat distant and disconnected from grassroots concerns. The party’s decision to replace him with Nayab Singh Saini, who was seen as more approachable and relatable, helped the BJP shed any perception of arrogance or detachment from the public. Saini’s humble background and OBC identity made him an appealing alternative for voters tired of traditional power structures.
In contrast, the Congress suffered from its inability to offer fresh leadership. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the face of Congress in Haryana and a veteran Jat leader, pushed for the nomination of loyalists and insisted on candidates from his own political camp. This not only deepened internal divisions within the Congress but also alienated non-Jat voters, who saw Hooda’s dominance as a return to caste-based politics.
The Congress re-nominated 17 candidates who had lost in previous elections, including state president Udai Bhan, further reinforcing the perception of a party stuck in the past. Meanwhile, the BJP’s introduction of new, younger candidates helped it combat anti-incumbency, presenting voters with a sense of renewal and a forward-looking leadership.
The BJP’s early start in the campaign season proved to be a critical advantage. As early as January 2024, the BJP rolled out its “Modi ki Guarantee” vans, which traveled across rural and urban constituencies, showcasing the government’s various development schemes. These vans not only highlighted the party’s welfare achievements but also allowed villagers to rectify issues with their Parivar Pehchan Patras, a unique family identification program.
This early groundwork ensured that the BJP maintained visibility in rural areas and connected with voters on a personal level. The campaign focused on the successful implementation of Direct Benefit Transfers (DBTs), with the BJP positioning itself as the most efficient state government in delivering welfare benefits directly into beneficiaries’ bank accounts. Voters, particularly in rural Haryana, responded positively to the BJP’s claims of transparency and efficiency in governance.
The BJP also emphasised its development achievements along the GT Road corridor, a region that spans from Ambala to Delhi and encompasses six districts and 25 key constituencies. Infrastructure development, industrial growth, and job creation in these areas contributed to a sense of progress that resonated with voters. The BJP’s focus on law and order, positioning itself as a disciplined and stable alternative to what it characterized as Congress-led chaos, further solidified its support base.
The fractured nature of the opposition played a pivotal role in the BJP’s electoral success. Unlike the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) formed alliances, the 2024 Assembly elections saw both parties contesting separately. This division was further exacerbated by the presence of regional players like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), both of which forged alliances with smaller parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Azad Samaj Party (ASP).
The multiplicity of opposition candidates resulted in a fragmented anti-BJP vote across several constituencies. In close contests, this vote split allowed the BJP to secure victories by narrow margins. Moreover, independent candidates further complicated the electoral landscape, siphoning off votes from opposition parties in key battlegrounds.
The BJP’s ability to communicate its message clearly and effectively, combined with the personal appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, was instrumental in securing voter support. The BJP held over 150 rallies across Haryana, many of which were addressed by Modi and Shah, in sharp contrast to the Congress’s 70 rallies.
The BJP’s messaging focused on development, governance, and welfare, while Congress’s campaign, led by Rahul Gandhi, emphasised farmers’ issues and targeted industrialists like Ambani and Adani. However, this socialist rhetoric did not resonate with Haryana’s upwardly mobile voters, many of whom were more interested in the BJP’s development agenda.
