The month of September has not begun on a good note for the people of Manipur. On September 1 afternoon, a drone dropped bombs on two Meitei-dominated villages in Imphal West district. On September 2, drone bombing destroyed three India reserve Battalion bunkers in the Imphal East district. The drone attacks are being attributed to Kuki-Zo militant groups since the target was the Meitei-dominated population in the Imphal valley. Both the drone attacks were followed by a heavy exchange of fire between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo groups protecting their respective turf. The clashes between the two warring communities have taken even more violent turn in the last couple of days, leading to 12 people dead in the ensuing clashes.
The drone attacks have added another dimension to the 16-month long conflict in Manipur. Now the security forces and the people have to guard and fight the drone threat from the air. The confrontation on land in terms of firing, ambushes and sniping continues. The latest drone attacks are likely to have a ripple effect and the violence levels may escalate, if the past trends are any indication. The immediate challenge for the security forces would be to prevent escalation dynamics and thereafter look at restoring normalcy in the strife torn state.
First a brief background of the ongoing conflict. The state has an area of 22,327 sq km with a valley floor of just 2000 sq km. It has a population of little over 30 lakhs with about 55 per cent belonging to Hindu Meitei, Nagas at 20 per cent and the Kukis-Zo accounting for 16 per cent. Balance population belong to Muslim and other communities. Meitei and Kuki-Zo people are in a state of conflict since 3 May 23 when violence erupted suddenly, immediate provocation being the Manipur High Court order recommending ST tribe to the Meitei community. The Meitei community has been demanding ST status similar to the Kuki-Zo community so that they could buy land in the hills since the valley, which has maximum Meitei population is fully saturated. Obviously, the Kuki-Zo community which is largely Christian is feeling threatened. This court order was stayed by the Supreme Court but by then the state was engulfed in conflict and violence.
For the last six months, the violence levels were brought down by keeping a sort of Buffer Zone between the two warring factions. Both the factions were confined to their respective dominated areas. Even in the capital city of Imphal, the Kuki -Zo presence was miniscule. The security forces had to remain vigilant at all times to maintain a tenuous peace. It is a common sight to see young men from both the factions keeping a vigil at night. Both the factions are well armed, probably with the weapons looted from the police armoury. Even heavier weapons like Two-inch mortar have been used in the ground attacks. Therefore, violence can escalate in the state at the slightest provocation.
So far, locally assembled drones or Chinese quadcopters for surveillance purpose have been used by both the factions in Manipur. A drone is basically an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) with no pilot or crew on board. Quadcopter is an elementary drone with four rotors and these are flown by a remote-controlled device to maneuver the device. Basic drones have come of age and are commercially available easily. Armed with cameras which provide day and night photography, they are a good tool for keeping an eye on traffic, disaster incidents, remote areas and so on. The drones have lift capability as per size and we have seen Pakistan sending light weapons, ammunition and explosives into Jammu region and in Punjab through drones. The armed use of drones in Manipur, possibly first of its kind in the country, is a dangerous portend.
Post ouster of Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh on 5 August 24, the aim of the forces inimical to India would be to make India’s North East volatile and vulnerable. People’s Defence Force of Myanmar, a militia force is in control of border areas with Manipur. This faction which is fighting Myanmar military junta is under the control of China and could have sold the armed drone technology to the militants. It is worrying because both the drone attacks had good degree of accuracy and precision, indicating some good skills in the hands of the militants. If the contest becomes tit for tat, then we can expect armed drone attacks by Meitei groups in the Kuki-Zo areas soon. The sudden increase in violence levels is also indicative of the involvement of the Deep State through foreign funding and supply of warlike stores.
The state government has formed a committee to examine the drones used in the attacks, specifications, evidence and also to suggest effective counter measures. The committee would have to consult technical experts but immediate counter drone measures are available with Army and the Assam Rifles. Once again, if we use expensive war like equipment meant for use against China in the border areas, then our war waging potential gets degraded. But since there are chances of escalation in the ethnic conflict, the security forces may have to plan effective and sustainable anti-drone measures. In addition, the security forces have to gain intelligence to capture such equipment from the militant hideouts. Some technical measures with frequency jamming to prevent any drone to fly can be enforced. Such technology is employed in and around the airports.
Time has come for enforcing peace and bring near normalcy in Manipur within a fixed time frame. Some tough action is warranted. The political class in the state is clearly divided on the ethnic lines and there is lack of trust. The state administration needs a shake up and the Centre has to take direct control now. There are calls to withdraw central forces from Manipur and obviously these are demoralising for the forces fighting under trying circumstances. If necessary, the Central security forces may be turned over where the performance has been found below par. The intelligence set up has to be reinforced because the current drone attacks took the establishment by surprise.
It is evident that the military and kinetic dimension of conflict resolution has to continue for quite some time in Manipur. But other stakeholders have to intervene in a big way. The judiciary can take Suo moto notice and intervene in an appropriate manner. The civil society, the religious leaders, NGOs, women groups, Human Rights agencies, media watchdogs and the intelligentsia has to intervene in most neutral, fair and transparent manner. The next couple of months may be critical for peace and stability in India’s North East in general and Manipur in particular. Let us join hands to end violence, restore normalcy and push all the constructive initiatives to mark the beginning of enduring peace in Manipur.
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