The present Bangladeshi administration has been overthrown over protests relating to the 1971 independence struggle, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled the country. However, more than the demonstrations and following events, it represents a continuation of long-standing foreign and internal political issues. The reservation problem, as well as Bangladeshi organisations and people, are the only tools in this geo-political game. The collapse of Hasina is a win for the United States and its current allies.
The Repetition of the History
To comprehend the current scenario, we must start with the context in which Bangladesh was born. The Bangladesh Liberation Struggle 1971 was the testing ground for the Cold War. Mujjubur Rahman, the leader of Bangladesh, triumphed with the backing of the Soviet Union and Indira Gandhi. In this background, Mujjibur Rahman visited the Soviet Union after gaining independence in 1972 and expressed gratitude for their assistance. India and the Soviet Union were close during this time because of the distance from the United States. In this environment, India and the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation in August 1971. However, the US continued to offer military and economic assistance to West Pakistan, an ally of the US. Although Bangladesh was freed, Mujibur Rahman was killed in 1975. It is commonly believed that the CIA, the US intelligence agency, used the military to assassinate her. Except for Sheikh Hasina and her sister Sheikh Rahana, who were visiting Europe, all members of the family died. Coups occurred despite subsequent administrations run by communists, the military, and Mujibur Rahman’s successors. If we examine these coups thoroughly, we can see that they were carried out by foreign forces, namely the United States and the Soviet Union. Sheikh Hasina sought sanctuary overseas during the coup in the years after Mujjibur Rahman’s killing. However, after returning to the country and becoming involved in national politics, Hasina was the target of 19 assassination attempts.
Why the United States and the West
Foreign forces are also responsible for the present coup. The United States is the most significant country, whereas the Soviet Union no longer exists. However, China’s presence in Bangladesh has not reduced, and its influence is quickly expanding. Russia’s influence in Bangladesh has grown over time, particularly after 2022. The United States has invested in various sectors and is displeased with Bangladesh’s growing relations with China and Russia. The United States is concerned that this would undermine its Indo-Pacific strategy for countering Chinese aggression. As a result, the United States seeks an administration in Bangladesh that respects its interests. India, too, has little interest in the expanding power of China and Russia, controlled by tyrants who allied after the Ukraine conflict in Bangladesh. Today, the democratic nations of India and the United States have solid connections and are the dominant forces in the Indo-Pacific region.
Looking at it this way, we can see Hasina’s quarrel with the United States dating back to 2011. Hasina believes that the United States was behind the assassination of her father, Mujjibur Rahman. This was evident in her policies and dealings with the United States. If we examine the many remarks made by the United States in recent years, we may conclude that the United States was interested in the upheaval in Bangladesh. The primary focus was on the collapse of Hasina and her government. In response to the outbreak of violence, the US State Department stated that Bangladeshi citizens had the ‘right to peaceful protest’. The United States has also questioned Hasina’s decision to shut down the internet and telecommunications networks.
Furthermore, the United States and the European Union have already expressed concerns about the transparency of Bangladesh’s recent elections. Moreover, the relations between the two nations worsened as early as May 2023, when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken issued a visa restriction on those guilty of disrupting Bangladesh’s democratic political process. However, China and Russia welcomed Hasina’s return to power, showing the geopolitical interests of major powers.
Furthermore, the political hostility between Hasina and the US is evident in various past statements that allude to US meddling in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs. Hasina has accused the United States of attempting to construct a Christian state in the area by including portions of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This way, Hasina tried to unite Russia, China, and India to find a balance with the USA. She visited India twice this year. She first attended Modi’s swearing-in ceremony as Prime Minister, followed by a two-day-long official visit. During the visit, the two nations inked a rail connectivity pact, which allows India to transport products to its northeastern states via Bangladesh’s rail network. However, the two nations disagree about the Teesta River’s water supply.
Furthermore, Dhaka’s offer to Beijing to fund the construction of a water reservoir on the Teesta angered New Delhi. In response, Hasina said that Bangladesh will prioritise India’s interests over China’s. Moreover, India was recently awarded permission to operate the port of Mongla in Bangladesh despite the growing Sino-Russian influence in Bangladesh.
The actions taken during Hasina’s July visit to China also provide proof of the US’s involvement in the current coup. Although the visit was unsuccessful economically, Hasina recognised China’s claim to Taiwan and endorsed China’s ‘One Belt’ plan. During her visit, China’s condemnation of foreign intervention in Bangladesh gave Hasina some political relief. If China wishes to criticise any country for intervening in Bangladesh, it will be either India or the US in the current dynamics of global politics. Following Hasina’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa, the two nations released a joint statement saying, “China supports Bangladesh in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and integrity while resisting external interference”. Besides, Hasina’s declaration against America from April 2023 should be read alongside this. Hasina then accused the US of having the power to “overthrow the governments of all countries, especially Muslim countries, which are in great distress today.”
The United States has also welcomed the announcement of the caretaker government in Bangladesh and has cancelled Hasina’s visa to the United States. Mohammad Yunus, a US-backed Bangladeshi economist and Nobel winner, has been appointed Prime Minister. Britain has also requested Hasina to remain in the nation where she initially landed. In short, the West has abandoned Hasina. Furthermore, western countries are looking into possibly creating a coalition government to which India has tacitly consented. If China and Pakistan attempted to remove Hasina, she would stop visiting this nation regularly. In this circumstance, India would not have taken a passive role. China could only avoid further involvement in this problem because of India’s strong presence. China understands that if it intervenes, India will have a chance to meddle. In this case, India would have a massive advantage over Bangladesh due to its geographical proximity. As a result, China retreated, and the United States’ interest became real.
India’s position
India described the problems in Bangladesh as an ‘internal matter’ of the country. The fall of a pro-China administration benefits India as well. However, India takes political instability in Bangladesh seriously, as the two countries share a 4,156-kilometer border. That is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi led a Cabinet meeting immediately after Sheikh Hasina departed the nation, and Ajit Doval, the National Security Adviser, also met her in India. If the current difficulties are caused by US intervention, then the fundamentalists of Bangladesh and Pakistan have been instrumentalised. That is why Hasina had to ban Jama-e-Islami throughout the country.
This situation is critical for India. Terrorist organisations, like Jamaat-e-Islami, can attack minorities, including Hindus, under the guise of protests. Unfortunately, reports have already come out of the demolition of Hindu properties, including the ISKCON temple. Since the CAA exists in India, it can be assumed that the Indian government will use it to protect human rights. The probability of a similar inflow of refugees to India as in 1971 owing to political turmoil cannot be ruled out.
Furthermore, the Indian government must closely watch the risk of Bangladeshis being involved in and infiltrating cross-border disputes and Islamic fanatics in India should not raise their voices against the country. If Hasina’s allegations about intentions to establish a Christian state in the region are accurate, India must take steps to prevent it from becoming a reality. However, it may also be interpreted as Hasina’s policy of bringing India and China together to safeguard power. However, India must take the challenges in the area seriously. In conclusion, if the US conducts this coup with the assistance of terrorist organisations such as Jama-t-Islami in Bangladesh and Pakistan, it will result in the fragmentation of Bangladesh, which has grown in numerous domains, in the future, similar to what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
