In Gujarat by announcing that the Congress party will trounce the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) Rahul Gandhi had challenged the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The Congress party won the election in Gujarat last time in 1985 when the Congress party won 149 seats in 182 member House. In 1985, the Congress party finally got its democratically elected Chief Minister in Gujarat.
In 1995, the BJP formed its first government in Gujarat, but the Congress party, undeterred, engineered a strategic defection within the BJP by supporting Shankersinh Vaghela. This led to the replacement of Keshu Bhai by Suresh Mehta within the BJP, followed by the Congress party’s direct support to Shankersinh Vaghela’s Rashtriya Janta Party (RJP), resulting in Vaghela’s ascension to the Chief Minister’s position. The Congress party’s political manoeuvring was a testament to its unwavering determination to oust the BJP from power in Gujarat.
The Congress party is looking at Gujarat as its next Tamil Nadu chapter. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress party last got power in 1962, and after that, it became only a small party in the State. Since 1995, the Congress party has not put up a tough challenge to the BJP in Gujarat. The Congress party is only putting up a token fight against the BJP in Gujarat as there is no alternative to the Congress party in the State.
It is rumoured that in the 2017 Assembly election in Gujarat, the Congress party had put a tough challenge to the BJP. Still, the observers deliberately ignored the vote share in the 2017 Assembly election. In the 2017 Assembly election in Gujarat, the BJP had 49.05 per cent of vote share, which was 1.15 per cent more than its 2012 Assembly election vote share. Even in the 2017 Assembly election, the BJP’s vote share was 7.61 per cent more than the Congress party’s.
Recently, the AAP has increased its political activity in Gujarat. The AAP is rapidly increasing its footprint in Gujarat at the cost of the Congress party. The AAP is applying its Delhi and Punjab formula in Gujarat, too. The AAP identified the weak points of the Congress party in these States and targeted its loopholes.
In the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election, the Congress party was relegated to only 17 seats. This was a drop of 60 seats of the Congress party from its previous Assembly poll tally. Besides that, the Congress party’s vote share decreased by 14.16 per cent compared to the previous Assembly election. In the 2022 assembly election in Gujarat, the Congress party got only 27.28 per cent of the vote. This was the lowest vote share in Gujarat since the formation of the State, while on the other hand, the BJP vote share in 2022 was 52.50 per cent, which was the highest of the BJP since its electoral debut in 1980.
The Congress party’s performance in the Gujarat Lok Sabha elections was disastrous. The party could not open its account in two successive Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress party won the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat by a small margin.
This is the only consolation for the Congress party in Gujarat after a long gap. Banaskantha winning candidate Geniben Thakor was MLA from Vav Assembly seat in Banaskantha district. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, the BJP established a lead on 173 ACs while the Congress party on only 9 ACs; in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP established a lead on 162 ACs while the Congress party on only 18 ACs. These data show the Congress party’s plight in Gujarat. The by-poll will be Waterloo for the Congress party, and to enthuse the morale of his party cadres, Rahul Gandhi gave an unwarranted statement regarding his party prospects in Gujarat.
Another trouble for the Congress party in Gujarat is from AAP. After the Lok Sabha election, the AAP and the Congress parties parted ways and will not tie up with each other in Gujarat either. The AAP will contest the Vav Assembly seat by-poll with full vigour to oust the Congress party as a runner. If the Congress party fails to put up a strong fight on this seat by-poll, then the AAP will try to replace the Congress party as the main Opposition to the BJP in the State.
