The entire political narrative of America has witnessed a radical shift and quite blatantly the ground says that the odds are in the favour of Trump. However, politics has a flair of being as dramatic it can be.
The political question that has become the talk of the town that how the failed attempt on Trump’s life will shape the future of American politics. The iconic image of Trump’s bloodied face and fist pumping in the air is a display of the coming high voltage theatrics.
It is being predicted that Trump has the potential to turn the table where a country brimming with angry citizens and backed by loads of money and a big sympathy vote, may end up in a landslide victory for him.
A significant amount of experts are pessimistic towards Trump’s return and fear the certainty that after coming to power he will accelerate a transition away from democracy in the name of democracy. November’s victory won’t satisfy Trump’s thirst for power.
He is already being preconceived as a connoisseur of chaos, a leader who will settle for no less than ‘democide’ in the name of democracy would become the new normal for American reality. The endgame is predicated as counterfeit democracy, a peculiar kind of despotism under Trump presidency.
If Trump returns, there are some important prospective transformations demand that the Indian foreign policy has to calibrate towards the US. The idea of “common sense” emerged as the guiding theme to the American governance under the potential second term of Trump. India’s partnership with the US has certainly widened, but it lacks depth. This might be a little more difficult for India to achieve under plausible Trump’s administration, as unchecked ambitions will be his thing.
Under Trump, the Republican Party is seeking to overthrow the traditional American consensus on: free trade, alliances, open borders, and the US support for post war global institutions. Rest of the world, including India must change assumptions about the US and adapt to the rapid transformations unfolding.
Experts have identified that trade and economic globalisation will face a major setback as Trump’s unapologetic stance of anti-globalisation instincts are sharper than before. The world has long assumed that the US is a bottomless sink for the world’s export, well now they are in a fix as it won’t be sustained under potential Trump’s tenure. Trade issues were a sticky irritant for India during Trump’s first term and now with his rock solid determination to stop outsourcing production to the rest of the world, this will become a serious challenge to overcome. India will have to rethink its own trade strategies.
On the security realm, India is in a better position than US allies in Europe and Asia and does not have to really fear US abandonment. India is a non-ally, however, the military collaboration and partnership has undoubtedly become a locus to India’s defence spectrum, especially with the ever expansionist China on its borders.
India’s strategic autonomy which has until now worked till date will be a tough endeavour to maintain with America under Trump demands for greater reciprocity. India desires to build its comprehensive national power and play a greater role in reshaping Asian security, this is a non-negotiable aspect on which won’t budge. However, India also seeks to articulate a plan to share burden with the US in the last decade and more.
Indian elites have been a major beneficiary of America’s open border policies since the 1960s. But today, immigration has become a raging issue in the US domestic politics and the Republican Party is determined to seal the border against migrant invasion and carrying out the largest deportation operation in the American history. India must work tooth and nail on facilitating legal immigration.
Climate and energy has been a dominant theme in Biden’s administration. The Republicans wants to reduce this expansive of green transition. Trump is promising to make America as energy superpower through industrial policy. Trump tenure saw India engage with America’s big oil companies. New Delhi must be pragmatic to reconnect with them.
Trump’s focus on internal change is inextricably linked to his plan to fundamentally restructure the international system. On both fronts, he is bound to face a strong rebuttal both politically and institutionally.
This brings us to the closing arguments that following these internal fault lines and their respective external spillover consequences, must be central to India’s efforts to intensify its engagement Wirth the US and create a new “common sense”.
