Assuming power for the fourth time in the twilight zone of his over-50-year political career, Chandrababu Naidu will have to marshal all his acumen as an administrator and politician to live up to the aspirations of the people of Andhra Pradesh. The task before him is no less arduous, despite his enviable reputation as a hard taskmaster driven to deliver.
He has a bankrupt treasury, empty coffers, bleak economic prospects and an extremely impatient and highly aspirational populace to contend with. To top it all, he has a slew of electoral promises, which are hard to implement, even in the most stable of the economies, to fulfil. He has the toughest task of fine-balancing both welfarism and development.
If his 1999-2004 stint was marked by a lopsided globalisation-driven and blind development model that ignored the poor and the marginalised, then his immediate predecessor, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s 2019-2024 rule was a classic case of autophagous welfarism at the cost of development. Both the attempts were summarily rejected by the voters. Hence, his 2024-29 stint will have to strike a balance between both welfarism as well as development.
Though he is an important cog in the wheel of the NDA’s alliance politics, Chandrababu Naidu does not enjoy the same leverage that he had during the Vajpayee era. The BJP today may not play ball with him over issues like ‘special status’ to the State etc. Modi 3.0, too, may not agree to imprudent fiscal demands to fund Chandrababu’s electoral promises, including the Super Six welfare scheme, which calls for spending far beyond the means of the near-bankrupt State.
Economy In Dire Straits
The real challenge facing the Chandrababu Naidu Government is the state of economy. The questions bothering him are how he would mop up the Rs 1 lakh crore needed to implement cash doles to adult women, free travel in State transport buses, unemployment allowance to youth, support to school-going students and pension for the elderly?
How would he re-begin ambitious projects such as completing the Polavaram project given the total outstanding liabilities of the State Government, which zoomed from Rs 2,64,388 crore in 2019 to Rs 4,85,490 crore by the end of the financial year in 2024? In terms of percentage of Gross State Domestic Product, it stands at a staggering 33.5 per cent. Even paying the salaries of the Government employees is no less than a monthly ritual of fire-dance.
His first challenge is to arrange Rs 4500 crore by July 1 to disburse welfare pensions to 65 lakh beneficiaries by July 1. Inability to do so will immediately draw comparisons with YS Jagan, who somehow or the other paid the welfare pensions on the dot. In addition, he has to pay salaries and pensions to present and past government employees, and that costs another Rs 6000 crore. The promised free commute to women in State-run bus services would entail heavy expenditure to a tune of Rs 2000 crore per annum.
According to the Government Budget report 2023-24, the State has Rs 4.83 lakh crore public debt, besides Rs 1.39 lakh crore Government guarantees and Rs 26,296 crore of loans from the Centre. The total Revenue Receipts in the Budget for 2024-25 are estimated at Rs 2,05,352.19 crore, while the expenditure was pegged at Rs 2,30,110.41 crore.
Amaravati Challenge
The ambitious 217 sq km Amaravati capital construction, which was in limbo all these years due to the vengeful policies of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, needs to be brought back on the rails. Finishing touches need to be given to the flats for MLAs, MLCs, AIS officers and secretariat staff, which were in a state of suspended animation during the Jagan regime. The High Court building, the Secretariat and legislative complexes, though operational, need some repairs. The construction of roads, drains, utility ducts, and other infrastructure needs to be speeded up in the right earnest. How the Chandrababu Naidu Government mops up the Rs 50,000 crore, which is needed as per the 2016 Master Plan, is a question that beckons serious and sincere answers. Experts say that though Rs 10,500 crore has already been spent on Amaravati, another Rs 12,000 crore is needed for building projects.
Addressing Hindu Concerns
One strong undercurrent that worked in Chandrababu Naidu and the NDA’s favour is the anger against the ever-increasing Christian assertion and spike in the proselytisation activities across the State. Despite Jagan’s umpteen attempts to whitewash, his Christianity became a sticking point. Several Missionaries took advantage of their proximity to Jagan and tried to preach their religion even in places considered most holy by the Hindus. His scheme to offer stipends to pastors did not go down well. The spate of attacks on Hindu temples has created distrust against YS Jagan. All these resulted in a Hindu backlash against the YSRCP Government.
However, Chandrababu, too, has a penchant for pandering to the so-called minorities at the State level. In fact, it was during his time that the funds from the State exchequer were allocated for building compound walls for the Churches. His Chandranna Christmas Kanuka, or gift and his decision to stick to the four per cent reservations for the Muslims stick out like sore thumbs. During and after the electoral campaign too, Chandrababu’s scion spoke favourably about minority reservations and setting up of Islamic banks. How Chandrababu protects the Hindu interests will be an important thing to watch.
Impatient Voters
Politically, the TDP faces several challenges. Coalition politics at the State level are quite new to the TDP, and its earlier experiment with the BJP in the post-2019 elections did not last long. Chandrababu has two partners – BJP and the Jana Sena – to contend with this time. Pawan Kalyan, who now lords over the influential Kapu vote bank, could be a tough customer to deal with. Chandrababu Naidu will also have to keep the NDA’s national goals and objectives in mind as a key constituent of the NDA. Initially, at least, his moves would be stymied by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, who has a majority in the legislative council. How Chandrababu Naidu steers the coalition at the State level determines the fate of his Government.
One major sign of worry for Chandrababu Naidu is that voters are growing increasingly impatient and unforgiving. Whether they would allow Chandrababu the luxury of a honeymoon period is anybody’s guess. Another important point is that the YSRCP is down but not out. It still has the solid support of 39 per cent of the voters in the State.
