“Post-election problems can be classified into three categories. Firstly, there are the problems pertaining to the politics of the transition. Inter-party relations, instability of coalition ministries, floor-crossing etc. are problems which fall in this category. To the second category belong those problems which stem from our constitutional set-up but which had either not arisen as yet, or had not confronted us as seriously as now. And thirdly, there are the manifold problems relating to economic, defence, home and foreign affairs which, because of the policies of the Congress Government, have become very grave now. Problems of the first category are of immediate topical interest and so generally evoke the maximum of public comment and debate. But they are less important than those in the other two categories. If these letter problems are not properly tackled, they can jeopardise the country’s unity and interests seriously” —Pt Deendayal Upadhyaya, Pt Deendayal Upadhyaya, Presidential Speech at Jan Sangh Sesson at Calicut in Kerala, December 29, 1967
As the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections are declared, analyses and discussions will continue for the coming days and months. Depending on political positions and priorities, everyone will try to interpret the data. Though who has won and lost is important in a democracy, the messages that electorates have conveyed through their voting behaviour should be the most crucial exercise while interpreting the gigantic and complex election results. First of all, the faith of common electorates in the process of electioneering is intact despite all attempts to raise questions over the role of the Election Commission India (ECI) and Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) by the Opposition parties and many international actors supporting them.
Prominent foreign media houses, international Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and Opposition leaders, including the Samajwadi Party and Congress, were preparing to mobilise the people for agitations if the ruling dispensation got the thumping majority. They must apologise to the ECI and Bharatiya voters for hatching a sinister plot. If I win, the electoral process is fine; if I lose, it is manipulated – such thinking is nothing but perpetuating undemocratic thinking.
The victory of PM Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is historic in many ways if we understand it in the context of election results since Independence. No political leader, party or coalition could secure a mandate for the third consecutive time since 1967. Reaching the 240 mark by BJP and NDA securing a majority with 293 seats for the third consecutive term is nothing short of a miracle in Bharat’s complex first post-past system, with Opposition parties trying to forge a formidable alliance. It looks like a setback for the ruling BJP as it had reset the benchmark since 2014 with PM Modi as the leader. This time, with 400+ as the target for the NDA bloc, the number 293 looks too short but is more than sufficient to form the Government. So, there cannot be a more ridiculous and unconstitutional argument than the mandate is against the ruling Government and PM Modi has no moral authority to form the Government. With this logic, all the Governments formed from 1989 to 2014 were immoral.
Even though the Opposition bloc is celebrating the electoral outcome, their strategy to come together and defeat the BJP-led NDA has failed miserably. The leading national party in I.N.D.I. Alliance, Indian National Congress (INC) has been unsuccessful yet again in touching the three-digit mark. Barring Telangana, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Punjab, Congress cannot claim its own votes.
Riding on the Muslim consolidation of votes and crutches of the regional allies, if Congress wants to celebrate it as a victory of Rahul Gandhi’s yatras, then the party with dynastic obsession is refusing to read the voter’s mind correctly nor making any amends in its dynastic obsession. The internal contradictions within the Opposition bloc were visible during the elections as many constituents were contesting against each other, and parties like Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) indicated pulling out of the alliance. Sooner or later, this unnatural alliance will fall apart. A million-dollar question is how far they can have a coordinated strategy with more numbers in the Parliament. If we go by Rahul Gandhi’s press conferences after the election results, he would undoubtedly be more of a nuisance value for our democracy rather than a constructive opposition in the coming days. The people trying to play around the discord between BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) do not understand the Sangh and its functioning. For the RSS, elections are not about someone winning or losing. Barring the 1977 elections, when the restoration of democracy after the Emergency was the national cause, RSS never came out openly to support any political party. For the national voluntary organisation, the only concern is that politics should remain with the ‘nation first’ approach. RSS perceives elections as an opportunity to educate voters and refine public opinion on various national issues and the organisation has done that in every State through its Swayamsevaks. So, bringing in RSS and its role in the electoral outcome is an immature and unnecessary ploy that some political actors and media houses like to play around with. Educating the masses about national issues and exposing the sinister plot to discredit democracy is a continuous process. We should continue our efforts to fight out this battle of narratives with greater rigour and precision. There is a message of introspection for the BJP as well. In 2014, the call for change was at the Centre and enthused the party workers to galvanise the voters. The grand narrative of national security and the re-election of PM Modi became the mobilising factors in 2019. Then, Amit Shah, as the party president, repeatedly talked about the preparation for a fifty per cent vote share, as some kind of Opposition understanding was present in 2019 as well. This time, without a national-level grand narrative, the vote transfer among the Opposition parties could successfully occur, which did not happen in earlier attempts. Whenever a national-level grand narrative is missing, local and caste-ridden politics emerge. Though the idea of ‘Viksit Bharat’ was the grand narrative that PM Modi and BJP tried to build, over the phases, elections revolved around different emotive local issues. In the General Elections, the consolidation of Muslims on communal lines and dividing Hindus on the caste lines was the Opposition’s strategy. BJP will also have to assess whether the party’s image, especially on the corruption-free politics agenda, has faced a dent with the admission of some of the tainted leaders in the party or alliance. Consolidating anti-BJP votes in the critical States beyond the conventional lines, re-emerging caste-based identities and possible intervention from foreign players are the mysterious trends that the party strategists will have to address. There is a need for greater ground-level confidence-building measures among various castes and communities so that the vicious agenda of widening the faultlines does not succeed. BJP will have to educate and energise the party workers to counter this trend and make them stakeholders while implementing various social inclusion schemes. Despite two terms of anti-incumbency, all Opposition parties are trying to put up a one-on-one fight and international actors directly or indirectly influencing the voting behaviour. BJP has not just retained the substantive vote share but managed to sweep the elections in seven States and continued its dominance in two States. Dramatic entry in Odisha Assembly elections, retaining Arunachal Pradesh Assembly, and increasing the vote share in most Southern States are the factors from which the party should draw positive lessons.
The Lok Sabha election 2024 was not just a contest between PM Modi, BJP, NDA and Rahul Gandhi, Congress and I.N.D.I. Alliance. The political process in Bharat is increasingly becoming the battleground for various forces and vested interests. No ideological forces like evangelism, radicalism, cultural Marxism, or global capitalism would like to see a unified, stable, and progressing Bharat, as this creates obstacles to their agenda. During the election, a report emerged about the role of external intervention in the elections, a serious matter that needs deeper analysis and corrective response. Their attempt at regime change has failed, which is another success story of our democracy.
Deendayal Ji had mentioned in his historic speech at the Calicut session of the Bharatiya Jan Sangh that inter-party relations and coalition stability are just one part of the post-election problem. The real challenge is to manage the Constitutional process and priority areas of economy, internal security, defence and foreign affairs amidst such a transitory phase. Formation of the Government will take place smoothly with NDA having sufficient numbers. BJP, under PM Modi’s leadership, has a conviction to work in the national interest, even with coalition pressures. As the anti-Bharat forces further try to create chaos and divide society on various faultlines using political parties, NGOs, media houses, and other actors, the new Government will need the extensive support of enlightened voices on the issues of national concerns.
