The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the astute leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, has not only achieved numerous milestones but also shattered several long-standing political and electoral myths in India.
Initially, the BJP was considered a party of the Hindi-speaking belt only. For nearly two decades since its inception, the BJP was considered the party of Rajasthan, joint Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, the NCT of Delhi, and erstwhile Uttar Pradesh. In addition to these States, the BJP has a limited or almost negligible presence in most states.
The BJP won only two seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha election. The BJP won Mehsana in Gujarat and Hanamkonda Lok Sabha seat in erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, defeating P V Narasimha Rao, who became PM of India in 1991. The BJP, till 2010, was considered the only defeating the Congress party. In the States mentioned above, the BJP had defeated and became the primary challenger of the Congress party in these States. In the early 90s, the BJP was successful in Uttar Pradesh, but in 2002, the BJP was defeated and remained out of power in the State for 15 long years.
Till 2010, the BJP had no such strategy and capability to contest against the regional or Communist parties. The BJP got partial success only in Karnataka or some other States, including Maharashtra, in alliance with the Shiv Sena.
It’s always tough for national parties to penetrate States where local State parties are active. If there are more than two State-level political outfits, then it’s tough for national parties to make room for them long-term. Uttar Pradesh Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party have occupied the political space since the early 90s. Bihar Lalu Yadav-led RJD and Nitish Kumar-led parties also occupied the political space. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK, AIADMK, and local parties occupied most of the political space. In these States, the national parties must forge alliances as smaller allies to remain in the reckoning.
However, since 2014, the advent of the resurgent BJP and the dawning of the Narendra Modi era, the BJP has made inroads in multiple impregnable areas. Firstly, the BJP completely sidelined two regional outfits in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP also makes state parties irrelevant, like the RJD, JDU, NCP, JDS, and other such parties, in their respective strongholds more in the Lok Sabha than in the Assembly.
The BJP was weakest in Communist strongholds. The Communists were vital players in three States: West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala. These States have 494 Assembly and 64 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP was not even a marginal player in these States. The resurgent BJP had penetrated these areas first, starting with Tripura. Though Tripura is small in geography and population compared to the statistically, the State is significant. The Communists have ruled the State since 1993 without any break for 25 long years. The BJP had broken the Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPM fortress. In 2018, the BJP won 36 seats in the 60-member strong Assembly in Tripura. Before that, the BJP did not open its account in Tripura till 2018. In 2023, the BJP again bounced back to power in the State with a full majority of its own. In the process, the BJP earned a new ally, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, and expanded its base in Tripura and other States of India.
Gaining such an important message and victory in Tripura gave a big thrust to the cadres of the BJP in West Bengal, and the BJP completely sidelined the Communist parties in WB, too. The BJP became the main Opposition party in West Bengal by sidelining the Congress party and the Communists. These two parties did not open their account in West Bengal in the 2021 Assembly poll. The BJP and its cadres have learnt the knack of defeating the Communist parties, too. Defeating Communist parties was the most arduous task in Indian politics. The uninterrupted Communist regimes in Tripura and West Bengal are testimony to the fact that Communists are a hard nut to crack for their opponents. The BJP’s track record in Communist-based states shows that it has had great success. Kerala is the next such target for the BJP. BJP will likely start its success story in Kerala from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP will repeat its Tripura and West Bengal performance in Kerala in the 2026 Assembly elections.
Meanwhile, the BJP replaced the CPM in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Lok Sabha seat and became the runner-up. In the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Lok Sabha seat, the BJP was a marginal player, much behind the Congress party and the CPM. Still, the BJP first replaced the CPM, became the main contestant in the seat, and started its mission against the Communists.
