The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance is doomed to fail in UP like the 2017 Assembly election in the State. The Samajwadi Party is struggling to survive after the demise of its founder and supremo late Mulayam Singh Yadav. The SP which won 224 seats in 2012 Assembly election and 36 LS seats in 2004 is relegated to win 5 seats in the last two successive LS elections. In Current Assembly the SP has half of the strength with that of 2012.
The Congress and Samajwadi Party alliances are not new. In the 2017 Assembly poll these two parties also forged an alliance. The SP contested on 311 seats and the Congress party on 114 seats. The SP won only 47 seats while the Congress party tally came down to 7 seats only. The SP lost 177 seats from its previous tally. This clearly shows that the voters of these two parties do not vote for each other.
It’s all likely that the BJP will perform unexpectedly in 2024 LS elections like that of 2017 Assembly poll. Whenever there is alliance between these two parties a big chunk of voters of these two parties votes for the BJP. Since this is Lok Sabha election and no third party like BSP has any role so the voters of the SP and the Congress party will vote for the BJP as they did in 2017.
Akhilesh took lessons from Congress party treatment of Lalu Yadav in 2009 LS and 2010 Bihar Assembly election. The Congress party fought these elections only to defeat Lalu Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan alliance. In 2009 LS elections in Bihar the Congress party had put such candidates into the vote bank of the RJD-LJP alliance and even Lalu Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan had lost their own seats from Patliputra and Hajipur LS seats respectively.
After that the RJD blindly followed the Congress party for alliance. In 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections in Bihar the Congress party got 41 and 70 ACs to contest. In the 2020 Assembly election the Congress party got 70 seats in alliance with the RJD and won only 19 seats.
The seats contested by the Congress party are easy targets for its opponents. Akhilesh Yadav is a relative of Lalu family and he knew the damage inflicted to the RJD by the Congress party. Akhilesh guessed that if he would not go in alliance with the Congress party then the Congress will play spoilsport for his party like that of RJD and LJP in Bihar.
In 2019 LS in UP the congress party was in direct contest on only four seats. So, it’s beyond imagination why the Congress party got 17 seats. Fatehpur Sikri was among the four seats on which the Congress party was in direct contest but even on the seat the Congress party forfeited its deposit.
In the 2022 UP Assembly election the Congress party contested on 399 seats and lost its deposit on 387 seats. In spite of such a bad performance by the Congress party, such huge seat allocation to the Congress party in UP by SP shows that these parties have neither vision nor any hope for the LS elections. These parties are only becoming part of the ongoing process in the LS election.
This clearly shows that like the 2017 Assembly election in UP in the 2024 LS election the BJP with its allies is going to repeat. Even Mulayam Singh Yadav blessed Modi in 2019 to return back as the PM of India on the floor of the Lok Sabha in his farewell speech of 16th Lok Sabha.
