Any political discussion about Punjab, without understanding the five distinct geographical regions – Majha, Doaba, Poadh, Bangar Pradesh and Malwa – may not yield correct inferences. All the five regions have their own distinct social, economic and political identities and thus politically behave accordingly. Hence, an attempt to define the political behaviour purely in Hindu-Sikh binaries will also give faulty outcomes.
For the first time since 1997, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting all the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab independently. The party has declared the names of candidates for nine seats and the names for four seats -Anandpur Sahib, Fatehgarh Sahib, Sangrur and Ferozepur – are still to be announced. Traditionally, the BJP had been contesting elections at Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur, while in alliance with SAD. However, with SAD moving away from the BJP over the farm bills, BJP would alone be testing the electoral waters in the State for the first time in national elections. AAP and Congress, partners in I.N.D.I. Alliance who were on the same side of the fence during the farm agitation, decided to fight separately in Punjab.
No Impact by Anti Farm Parties
During the farm agitation, the agitation leadership was seen as the future political leadership of the State. On the contrary, despite successful agitation against farm laws, political parties born out of the agitation – Samyukta Samaj Morcha (SSM) of Balbir Singh Rajewal and Sanyukt Sangharsh Party (SSP) of Gurnam Singh – failed to make an impact in the political space during the 2022 Punjab Assembly polls. Farmer leader Balbir Singh Rajewal-led SSM could not win any seat in Punjab. This underlines the difference in political behaviour and supporting the farm agitation.
Sharing a border with Pakistan, and due to its turbulent 1980s’ when the State was engulfed in a vortex of turmoil, elections in Punjab are not between four parties alone
Politics in Punjab has always been impacted by the principles of Miri Piri, which says religion and politics are bound together. Akali Dal, which was set up as a political arm of SGPC in 1920, has drawn its strength from the Gurudwara politics in the State through the SGPC’s 179 members. But since the last two Vidhan Sabha elections, its supremacy in SGPC has not helped the party with any major electoral gains. This fall is attributed to a growing feeling among the Sikhs that the Akali Dal, under present Chief Sukhbir Singh Badal, has been using SGPC for its political ends. The sacrilege cases, reported during SAD tenure in the State, were the core issues in the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls as well as in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab. And they cost SAD dearly. Though these issues were nearly missing from the public discourse in the initial phase of election season this time round, Shiromani Akali Dal raised them in a recent social media post blaming the incumbent AAP Government for the slow pace of investigations into the cases of 2015, when SAD was the incumbent in Punjab along with BJP.
In another recent incident, a 19-year-old man was beaten to death after he allegedly tore some pages of the Guru Granth Sahib, the holy book of the Sikhs, at a gurdwara in Punjab’s Ferozepur. Though there seems to be an attempt to keep the issues alive, only the election results would tell who has it impacted the most.
The State Vidhan Sabha elections of 2022 were won by AAP with a promise to end the drug menace in the State within three months of forming the Government in the State. The deadline has now been extended to the end of the year 2024. SAD also made it an electoral issue in this election, though one of its senior leaders Bikram Singh Majithia was booked under the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act on December 20, 2021. As Punjab being on the route of the international drug trade, there is no dearth of the illegal narcotics in the region. It is hard to believe this is happening without the knowledge or maybe connivance of the police, the administration and the politicians of the State. The Guardian, quoting BSF officials, wrote that BSF intercepted 90 drones from Pakistan in 2023 and the number was increasing every month. While most carried consignments of opium and heroin likely to have come from Afghanistan, some dropped weapons including pistols and Chinese-made assault rifles. The ISI is believed to have a special desk called K2 (Kashmir and Khalistan) which is tasked to exploit the faultlines in India’s border States. Even the opening of the Kartarpur corridor has failed to bring any change in Pakistan’s attitude. As a senior journalist of The Hindu, wrote, “In the absence of any other new initiative that would bring the two countries together, the Kartar Sahib Gurudwara remains both geographically and metaphorically a unique, lonely structure across a bleak landscape”.
Controversial Preacher
The Sikh radical preacher Amritpal Singh, who is lodged in Assam’s Dibrugarh prison under the stringent National Security Act (NSA), has announced to contest as an independent candidate from the Khadoor Sahib constituency, on the promise of fighting the drugs menace in the State. His sudden propping up from nowhere, rise to fame as a radical leader and an heir to Bhindernwale’s legacy is a matter of intelligence scrutiny. His candidature has been supported by the radical party, Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) which has withdrawn its candidate in Amritpal’s favour but has put SAD in a dilemma as Khadoor sahib is a Panthic seat. All three have another common point in their manifesto which is to get the release of “Bandi Singhs”. However, the history of his activities and speeches point towards his hardline views-openly exhorting for a separate State for Sikhs as a ‘permanent solution to Punjab’s problems- water disputes to drug addiction to the eroding Punjabi culture.’ In September 2022, he was appointed head of Waris Punjab De, an organisation founded by Deep Sidhu, an Indian actor and activist who was part of an enormous campaign to mobilise farmers against agricultural reforms by the present NDA Government at the Centre. Deep Sidhu died in a road accident in February 2022.
The State Vidhan Sabha elections of 2022 were won by AAP with a promise to end the drug menace in the State within three months of forming the Government in the State
The State with about 32 per cent of the Dalits and Mazhabi Sikhs population in the State is also known for its Deras. There are approximately 10,000 Deras in the State, some of which are as old as Sikhism. The State has witnessed a pronounced tilt among the poor and socially oppressed castes towards Deras, which has made them highly influential in a society where the boundaries between religion and politics are often blurred. Many of these Deras have earned the status of pilgrimage for politicians of almost all parties. Divya Jyoti Jagriti Sansthan (DJJS) at Nurmahal and Dera Radha Soami Satsang, Beas, Dera Sachkhand Ballan and Bhagwan Valmiki Yog Ashram at Nakodar are amongst the famous Deras of Punjab that are visited by politicians during the election season. These visits do not always get converted into votes bringing into question the influence of Deras on the electoral politics of the State.
Growing Footprints of Church
Punjab is also witnessing the growing footprints of the Church. Though as per the 2011 census, Christians stood at 1.26 per cent of the total population of the State, the Christian leaders place the actual percentage of Christians between 10 and 15 per cent. This big gap can be attributed to large-scale conversion in recent years amongst Dalits and Mazhabi Sikhs, who retain their original identity even after conversion to avail various benefits meant for SCs. The growing influence of the Church was adversely commented upon by Giani Harpreet Singh, the Jathedar (head of Sikh clergy) of the Akal Takht, last year during three day Jor Mela, when he warned the crowd about the growing influence of the Pentecostal movement in Punjab, saying “Churches are coming up like mushrooms across the State”. However, the political influence of the Church in elections in the State is still to be tested.
With the elections in Punjab drawing near, there is a sudden increase in reports by American media outlets, notably The Washington Post and The Guardian, concerning alleged actions of Indian agencies against anti-Bharat terrorists. The reports that amount to alleging Indian agencies of acting beyond the law bring out in open a troubling bias against the present Government in Delhi amongst international journalism. Such “exclusive” reports suddenly appearing in the media during this election season, raise questions not just about the timing of such reports but also about the inherent biases they may reflect. The implications of this biased reporting can be grave not only on international relations but also on internal political dynamics within India, where such reports may influence electoral outcomes.
Can the Sikh radicals staying abroad impact the elections in India?
AAP Soft on Radicals
In one of the purported videos, the founder of the radical organisation Sikhs For Justice, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, alleged that radical groups gave USD 16 million (approximately Rs 133.54 crore) to Aam Aadmi Party to fund elections between 2014 and 2022 on a promise by Arvind Kejriwal to release convicted terrorist Devinder Pal Singh Bhullar in exchange for financial support. Bhullar was involved in the 1993 Delhi Bomb Blast that killed nine people and injured 31 others.
In the past also, there had been whispers of AAP going soft on Punjab radicals. Recently, a Punjabi vernacular paper reported the Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) Head Simranjit Singh Mann’s statement against AAP Chief Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest. Dubbed ‘Budda Jarnail’ by some of his critics, 77-year-old Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) president and former IPS officer Simranjit Singh Mann has been a proponent of a separate Sikh State.
During his mid term election victory during elections at Sangrur, Mann had said that it was the efforts of his party cadres and the “direction given by Jarnail Singh Bhindrawale” (the slain Sikh separatist leader killed in Operation Blue Star) that resulted in his victory.
Punjab, the bread basket of Bharat, is counted amongst the developed States in India. However, persistent unemployment problems amongst the youth and the farming crisis have adversely impacted the State’s social and economic standing. Also, it is a border State, sharing a border with Pakistan, and due to its turbulent 1980s’ when the State was engulfed in a vortex of turmoil, elections in Punjab are not between four parties alone, and the outcomes are not as per mathematical calculations. With its 13 seats, the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab may not have a decisive impact at the Centre unless and until it is a very close finish at the all India level but the outcome of elections in the State has strategic importance from national security point of view. Irrespective of who wins the elections in the State, the outcome must be in Bharat’s favour.
