Some years ago, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa talked off and on about geo-economics, as opposed to geopolitics, as a way forward for Pakistan. This divine revelation dawned on him a trifle late in the day and he tried to take steps, rather goaded Prime Minister Imran Khan into taking suitable steps. Repairing ties with eastern neighbour India and western neighbours Afghanistan and Iran could be his abiding legacies, he seemed to think at one time. But that was not to be.
In early 2021, Bajwa and PM Imran were on one page when the first baby steps in this direction were being taken. Bajwa was emboldened after having sealed a ceasefire agreement with India and started talking about geo-economics more often in public. On August 15, 2021, the Taliban swarmed and swept into Kabul at lightning speed. Lauding the Taliban, Imran called their action akin to “breaking the mental chains of slavery”.
His being a Pathan was not the only reason why Imran earned the moniker of Taliban Khan. ISI Chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, considered close to Imran, then flew into Kabul to have coffee with the Taliban leaders on September 4. It was obvious Hameed was patting himself on the back with this public display. After all, the deadliest of the Taliban, Haqqanis, had been nurtured for long by the ISI. Bajwa apparently did not like it, and that ended Hameed’s chances of being the next COAS (Chief of Army Staff).
After a long time, the ISI had succeeded in upending a pro-India Ghani Khan Government in Kabul. Pakistan started thinking it had regained its “strategic depth” with the Taliban installation. It thought of the Taliban as no better than Lego toys for boys that young lads play with. For the uninitiated, Lego is a construction toy box children play with; its blocks are colourful and reusable. The original Lego toy pack was a box of “Large creative bricks” of approximately 800 pieces of different sizes and shapes, multi-coloured, used for creating multi-storey buildings, trucks, pull carts and other basic items.
Taliban are no longer prepared to be Lego-like for the Pakistani establishment, readily fighting in the high hills of Poonch, Rajouri, or Kashmir districts. In other words, the good Taliban have turned into the bad Taliban now, and Pakistan knows not how to handle them. Adding to Pakistan’s troubles are the repeated attacks carried out by TTP (Tehrik Taliban Pakistan), whom the Taliban refuse to forsake.
At present, between 5,000 to 6,000 TTP fighters may be based in Afghanistan. The Taliban are unwilling to rein them in. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khwaja Asif, wants to resolve issues with Afghanistan through dialogue. No defence delegation has visited Afghanistan, but one was led by Pakistan Commerce Secretary Khurram Aga! The two sides talked about tackling “existing hurdles in the transit areas”. Incidentally, the Taliban are presently conducting trade via Chahabar port of Iran, shunning Gwadar. Chahabar is promoted by India, and this shift by the Taliban has caused much annoyance in Pakistan, as well as China.
Long after Bajwa’s departure, the Pakistani policy planners realised that trade was the grease they needed, be it in their east or west. However, despite finding this right remedy, there are no takers for their initiatives at this juncture.
