The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala will be different from the previous ones. Though the main opponents will remain the same, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to stake a strong claim as the third front. The NDA will try to grab multiple seats in Lok Sabha from the State. The scenario between the Congress Party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has changed from its position in 2019. In 2019, these two parties were avowed political opponents, but now, their relations are perplexed.
In Kerala, these two parties led alliances. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) are the main opponents, and outside Kerala, these two parties are allies in some States. These parties are allies in Tripura and West Bengal. Communists or the CPM had a strong mass base in these two States. But in West Bengal, these two parties are also drifting away from each other, as per recent media reporting. But now Communists or the CPM is relegated to only in the State of Kerala as in West Bengal, and in Tripura, the CPM and the Communists have lost most of their mass base.
Kerala is an experimental State for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP won only one assembly seat in Kerala in 2016. Till now, the BJP has been unable to open its account in the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala. But this time, it’s likely that the BJP will open its account with even three or four seats. The BJP is likely to win the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat. The Congress party will ensure the defeat of three terms of Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor. The reason for animosity against Shashi Tharoor is his candidature against Mallikarjun Kharge, the Gandhi family loyalist candidate for the post of president of the party. Now, a section of Congress party cadres is against Shashi Tharoor winning the seat as they feel that he will create a challenge for the Gandhi family in future. The section will try its best to ensure defeat to Shashi Tharoor, even by tactical voting to the BJP. This will ensure winning of Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat to the BJP.
In Kerala, the BJP has increased its vote share in many seats. On five Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, the BJP got more than 2 lakh votes. In Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Attingal, Palakkad and Thrissur Lok Sabha seats, the BJP got more than 2 lakh votes. In the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat, the BJP got more than three lakh votes. Besides these, on several seats, the BJP got a respectable vote. So, in 2019, it was obviously clear that the BJP would not open its account in Kerala in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but also its tally would be respectable.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, Rahul Gandhi contested from a Muslim-dominated Wayanad Lok Sabha seat beside his traditional seat of Amethi in UP. Though Rahul Gandhi won Wayanad Lok Sabha seat but he lost Amethi. This was the first time when any member of Gandhi family contested from Kerala. After his entry in Kerala the Congress party has lost its base in Assembly elections and even in local body elections too.
The BJP has a golden opportunity to cut into the vote bank of the UDF and of the LDF, too. The Congress party has been losing its ground in Kerala consistently in Kerala since the 2019 LS elections. In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the LDF bounced back to power by decisively defeating its main opponent, the UDF. This was the first time since 1982 when the UDF failed to retain power in Kerala after five years of its tenure in Opposition. In Kerala, there is a tradition of power exchange between the Congress party-led UDF and the CPM-led LDF in the State after five years of tenure. Not only in the 2021 Assembly elections but also in the 2020 Kerala local elections, the performance of the UDF was highly despicable. The UDF seat share was reduced in grama panchayat, block panchayat, district panchayat and corporations, too. In grama panchayat, the UDF seat share was reduced by 44, in block panchayat by 23, in district panchayat by 4 and in corporations by 1. The LDF, too, has also lost its seat tally in grama panchayats by 35 seats in 2020 with respect to its 2015 performance. The NDA’s performance in local body elections in Kerala was applauded, and it improved its performance. This was big news for the NDA.
Now, due to this churning in Kerala 2021 Assembly elections, there is a chunk of voters from the UDF camp who may switch to the other camp or to the NDA in the State. Now, it’s a golden opportunity for the NDA to expand its mass base in Kerala.
The BJP is looking for better performance due to its work on infrastructure projects. The BJP-led NDA Government at the Centre has done a lot of work on railways, roads, and other infrastructure projects. The Thiruvananthapuram-Kasaragod SilverLine project proposal of 530 km distance at a speed of about 135 kmph is a landmark for Kerala. It covers the entire Kerala from North to South. The project has the potential to change the socio-economic profile of the State. Besides these, many other projects are in the pipeline, and the BJP has a lot of expectations from these projects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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