The Gandhi family’s political opportunism in South India is old and time-tested. The Gandhi family always used the Southern States either for political rehabilitation or for political opportunism. The Gandhi family’s political experiment in Southern India started in 1978 when, completely out of political opportunism, Indira Gandhi asked D B Chandre Gowda to vacate his Chikkamagaluru Lok Sabha seat. The Chikkamagaluru seat is no longer in existence and became the Udupi-Chikkamagaluru seat. In post delimitation in 2008.
Indira Gandhi lost her traditional seat of Rae Bareli in 1977 when Jan Sangh supported Raj Narain by a huge margin of 55262 votes. At that time, 55262 votes were a big margin. Indira Gandhi misused her influence in the party and ordered Chikkamagaluru incumbent MP D B Chandre Gowda to vacate the seat for her and ensure entry into Lok Sabha. It was a big cheat to the people of Chikkamagaluru Lok Sabha seat to foist a by-election on them. The voters of Chikkamagaluru Lok Sabha seat sent D B Chandre Gowda by a heavy margin of 64568 votes to Parliament in 1977. In Karnataka in 1977, the Congress party won all 28 seats but Hassan and Bengaluru South Lok Sabha seats. This was only the start of the Gandhi family’s political opportunism in South India. The voters of Chikkamagaluru ensure the victory of Indira Gandhi in by -poll by a heavy margin of 77343 votes. But that was only the start of the Gandhi family’s political opportunism in South India.
In 1980, it was expected that Indira Gandhi would contest from Chikkamagaluru, in addition to her traditional seat of Rae Bareli. But in 1980, she ditched Chikkamagaluru and contested from Medak, then Andhra Pradesh, and is currently in Telangana. The voters of Medak sent Indira Gandhi to Lok Sabha by a huge margin of 219124 votes. Indira Gandhi won both Rae Bareli and Medak seats in the 1980 Lok Sabha election. Indira Gandhi vacated the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat for Arun Nehru, a close relative. At the time when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, she was an MP from Medak.
However, in 1984, in spite of the sympathy wave for the Congress party in the entire country, the Congress party lost the Medak seat. It was a big fact that the sympathy wave for Indira Gandhi’s assassination was not felt in her own constituency, and the Congress party lost the Medak Lok Sabha seat in 1984. Senior Congress leader P Shiv Shankar was the Congress party candidate for the seat. P Shiv Shankar lost Medak’s seat to TDP’s P Manik Reddy.
The Gandhi family contested from South India next time in the 1999 Lok Sabha poll from Bellary in Karnataka. Besides Amethi, Sonia Gandhi put her nomination from Bellary Lok Sabha seat in 1999 out of fear of losing the Amethi seat. She won both the seats, and unlike her mother-in-law, she vacated the Bellary Lok Sabha seat. Afterwards, in all general elections of 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019, the Congress party lost the Bellary Lok Sabha seat.
After 1999, no member of the family contested in South India in 2019 when Rahul Gandhi, a scion of the Gandhi family, contested for the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. Rahul Gandhi sensed ground reality from Amethi in 2019 and put his nomination from the Muslim-dominated Wayanad Lok Sabha seat too. Rahul Gandhi was capitalising the support of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) In Kerala. Wayanad LS seat shares its border with Malappuram Lok Sabha seat, which is the stronghold of the IUML. The IUML has been winning Malappuram Lok Sabha seats since 1952, with only one exception in 2004. Ponnani LS seat is also close to Wayanad LS seat which has been represented by the IUML since 1977 without any break. In Kerala in 2019, the Congress party contested 16 seats, and Rahul Gandhi had multiple options to contest. But, Rahul Gandhi chose the Wayanad LS seat where the influence of IUML was apparent. In the 2021 Assembly elections in Kerala, if we calculate the votes of seven assembly segments of the Wayanad LS seat, then the vote share of the INC/UDF vote came down to 521825, which is 27 per cent less than the INC LS vote tally in the 2019 LS poll. Due to the decreasing vote share within the Wayanad LS seat in the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress party is ambivalent about Rahul Gandhi’s candidature for the seat in 2024. Besides, it is a tradition of the Gandhi family not to contest again from the same seat in South India. Even the Congress party had not made its stand clear on whether Rahul Gandhi will contest from Amethi again or not. Sonia Gandhi made her health an issue and opted for Rajya Sabha. She became the second member of her family after Indira Gandhi to opt for Rajya Sabha.
After Gandhi’s family’s direct involvement in Kerala electoral politics, the Congress party-led United Democratic Front lost in the 2021 Assembly elections. In Kerala, since 1982, it was a tradition of changing governance every five years, as has been happening in Rajasthan since 1993. In 2021, it was the turn of the UDF to bounce back after its five-year Opposition role. But in 2021 the Left Democratic Front (LDF) make bounce back by reversing four decade old tradition of changing governance.
Since the Gandhi family no longer has any kind of mass base in their traditional seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli any longer so they want to rehabilitate from the southern States. The Gandhi family’s electoral contest from the Southern States is not due to their inclination but due to their vanishing mass base in their traditional seats in UP. In the Hindi-speaking belt, no seat is sure to be taken from the Gandhi family. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress party formed its Government, but they felt none of the four seats were safe for them. In the 2022 UP Assembly elections on the five assembly seats of Amethi LS seat, the Congress party got only 142952 votes, much behind the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. In the 2022 LS poll on four assembly seats of Tiloi, Salon, Gauriganj and Amethi. Amethi LS seat, the Congress party forfeited its deposit. The Congress party got only a 14.28 per cent vote share in 2022 on five ACs that fall within the Amethi LS seat. On Rae Bareli LS seat, the condition is more or less similar to that of Amethi. In the 2022 UP Assembly elections of the five ACs within the Rae Bareli LS seat, the Congress party garnered only 140706 votes and stood much behind the BJP and the SP. The Congress party lost deposit on three ACs of Harchandpur, Rae Bareli and Unchahar. The Congress party got only 13.15 per cent of votes in the Rae Bareli LS seat in the 2022 UP Assembly elections. The poor performance of the Congress party in 2022 in Rae Bareli might be the reason for Sonia Gandhi to opt for Rajya Sabha.
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