Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu’s pro-China regime currently under debt pile, to become ‘bankrupt’ by 2026

Even though Maldives has not gone bankrupt as media reports say, Male is heavily leveraged with external debt mounting to nearly USD 4.038 billion and the internal debt nearly matching the figure with debt crisis looming ahead in 2026. The gross national income of Mohamed Muizzu ruled Maldives is USD 5.6 billion as per official figures.

While Muizzu with his overt anti-India stance, is asking for debt relief from his close friend Xi Jinping, the President of China and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party along with Islamic emirates in the Middle East, the Chinese debt of USD 1.3 billion constitutes nearly thirty percent of its external debt with sovereign bonds maturing in the year 2026.  Even though Muizzu sought financial support from the likes of Turkey and China, none is seen forthcoming as the island nation reels in a fully blown economic crisis.

The Chinese surveillance ship, the Xiang Yang Hong 03 which had come for operational turn around at Male seaport even though it takes maximum two days for the ship to turn around and head for the port of Sanya. For the record, the Chinese surveillance ship was allowed to use the Male port only for the OTR and not conduct any survey or ocesn bed mapping in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Maldives and beyond.

While India is expected to replace the crew of one of the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) flying the Maldivian flag by the end of this month or early March, the Modi government is on a wait and watch mode but fully prepared to help Maldives in case of humanitarian disaster.

Rather than get worked up with Muizzu’s anti -India posture for his own political survival, the Modi government has given a green signal to the Indian Navy to extend the airstrip at Agatti islands in the next door Lakshadweep and Minicoy Islands with building a new airbase there, the Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will commission the first squadron of MH-60 Sikorsky helicopters in Kochi on March 4 to March 5, 2024 and then head towards the Maldives on board India ‘s two aircraft carrier strike for Minicoy to commission a new base called INS Jatayu.

Even though Muizzu’s anti-India political stance and posturing is aimed at Majlis (Parliament Elections) in April 2024, the public mood towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for infra-development in Maldives is at best lukewarm. This is after a number of countries like Pakistan, Kenya, Tanzania are reeling under BRI debt after taking high interest loans from China’s EXIM Banks.