As India prepares for the 2024 general elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself comfortably leading the race, while the Opposition struggles to keep up. The outcomes of recent elections in five States have significantly favoured the BJP, indicating a strong likelihood of Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third consecutive term.
Recently, the party achieved sweeping victories in the Hindi belt States of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, with the main Opposition Congress Party only managing a win in the Southern State of Telangana. Whereas, the Mizoram battle did not prominently feature either the BJP or the Congress Party.
Political analysts point to the BJP’s electoral success being grounded in money power, organisational strength, and right-wing populist politics. However, the unparalleled popularity of PM Modi adds an extra incentive for voters to support the BJP in national elections, reinforcing his position. While polarisation appears effective in urban areas, rural discourse revolves around welfare initiatives. The BJP’s approach, blending left-wing populism for the poor with right-wing cultural majoritarianism, particularly in the realm of welfare policy as populist politics, has proven successful. Welfare programs, strategically implemented, serve as crucial tools through which Modi establishes moral legitimacy and gains voter trust. Therefore, the impact of the Government’s welfare initiatives emerges as a pivotal factor shaping voting behaviour in the 2024 elections. Recent campaign speeches by PM Modi highlight the combination of emphasis on the BJP’s paternalistic welfare schemes, offering substantial free food and cash handouts, along with a mix of nationalistic and religiously communal rhetoric, providing insight into the BJP’s national election strategy.
The Modi Government has significantly increased investments in the public distribution of private goods, including LPG, toilets, housing, and electricity connections. Data from successive waves of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) illustrates a substantial rise in access to various household goods. The penetration rate has notably increased post-2014, with examples such as the proportion of households using improved sanitation facilities climbing from 48.5 per cent in 2014 to 70.2 per cent in 2019. The relentless commitment to the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan has led to the construction of an impressive 12 crore toilets in rural areas across the country. Similarly, the percentage of households with access to clean cooking fuel has risen from 43.8 per cent in 2014 to 58.6 per cent in 2019. There has also been an increase in access to health insurance/financing schemes (from 28.7 per cent in 2014 to 41.0 per cent in 2019) and electricity access (from 88.0 per cent in 2014 to 96.8 per cent in 2019).
The PMJAY aims to alleviate severe out-of-pocket costs related to significant medical episodes, providing poor and vulnerable families with access to high-quality inpatient secondary and tertiary care.
The Jal Jeevan Mission Nal Se Jal scheme is geared towards supplying potable water connections to every household by 2024, with an allocated budget of Rs. 3.60 lakh crores. Reportedly, over 14 million out of 19 million rural households have received functional tap water connections, with the goal of covering the remaining households by 2024. This initiative has led to a reduction in child mortality, particularly from diarrheal deaths. An estimate by Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer and others suggests that the JJM, if successful in eliminating microbiological contamination, could prevent around 1,36,000 under-5 deaths per year. While geogenic contaminants like arsenic, fluoride, and nitrate are prevalent in certain regions of India, microbial contamination remains the most widespread, making diarrhoea the third most common cause of under-five mortality in the country.
To realise the goal of “Housing for All” in rural areas, the Ministry of Rural Development has been executing the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G) since April 1, 2016. The aim is to provide assistance for the construction of 2.95 crore pucca houses with essential amenities. Although the mandated target is 2.95 crore houses under PMAY-Gramin, the Ministry has allocated a target of 2.94 crore houses to the States/UTs. Out of these, States/UTs have sanctioned 2.85 crore houses to beneficiaries, and 2.52 crore houses have already been completed by December 2023.
Similarly, under PMAY-Urban, 79 lakh houses have been completed out of the sanctioned 118.6 lakh houses till December 2023. This welfare push aligns with the government’s adoption of direct cash transfers, channelling benefits directly into household bank accounts, and eliminating inefficient intermediaries. Data from the DBT platform reveals a significant increase in direct benefit transfers, from Rs 38,926 crore in 2014-15 to Rs 3,81,631 crore in 2019-20 and Rs 7,16,396 crore in 2022-23. Simultaneously, the number of schemes under the DBT platform has risen from 59 in 2015-16 to 314 in 2022-23. DBT and governance reforms, including the JAM trinity (Jan-Dhan bank accounts, Aadhaar, and Mobile), geo-tagging, etc., have led to the removal of duplicate/fake beneficiaries, plugging leakages, and targeting genuine and deserving beneficiaries.
The estimated gain from the implementation of DBT and other governance reforms until March 2022 is INR 2,73,093 crore. Contrary to the conventional narrative that attributes the BJP’s 2019 election victory solely to nationalism arising from a security crisis with Pakistan, economics played a distinct role. The Government announced an annual cash transfer of 6,000 rupees to every farming household, addressing rural distress. Recently, the extension of a pandemic-era scheme providing free food grains to 800 million citizens for an additional five years was announced. The number of beneficiaries has increased from 3.16 crore in 2018-19 to 8.57 crore till July 2023. Schemes like Vishwakarma and Svanidhi, supporting artisans, street vendors, women in rural households, and farmers, provide cash support linked to the employment and business performance of these economic groups. Under Svanidhi, as of January 4, 5.8 million street vendors, 44 per cent of whom are female, have received loans totalling around 11 thousand crores.
The Modi Government has expedited road construction, nearly tripling the rural roads built compared to the UPA Government. Efforts are underway to accelerate the coverage of flagship welfare programmes, with ministries aiming to utilise their budgets for 2023-24 promptly. Besides outlays for individual schemes, ministries and other implementing agencies have been given measurable “outputs” and “outcomes” for accountability. Recently, PM Modi has also appealed for people’s feedback on India’s progress in various sectors to gauge performance, emphasising people’s aspirations and feedback.
In conclusion, the BJP is positioned to leverage its significant welfare initiatives as a central pillar for success in the upcoming 2024 elections. The party’s adept combination of left-wing populism and right-wing cultural majoritarianism, particularly within the realm of welfare policies, not only strengthens its electoral foothold but also brings about tangible improvements in the lives of millions. Addressing a diverse array of needs, ranging from sanitation and housing to healthcare and direct cash transfers, the BJP’s comprehensive approach is especially impactful in rural areas. The commitment to transparency, efficiency, and responsiveness through initiatives like the Direct Benefit Transfer platform and governance reforms enhances the party’s image as a Government actively committed to accountability. By showcasing these achievements alongside public feedback and aspirations, the BJP aims to craft a compelling narrative of inclusive development, setting the stage for a robust electoral performance in 2024.
