The much-awaited I.N.D.I Alliance meeting is likely to meet the same fate as that of its past meetings. This meeting is much delayed. The main player of the bloc the Congress party was waiting for the Assembly poll results of the five States for this meeting. The Congress party was humiliated in Assembly polls of four States out of the five States. The resurgence of the BJP not only in Hindi-speaking areas but also in southern State of Telengana will force the INDI alliance parties to renew their strategy for the BJP-led NDA in forthcoming 2024 LS poll.
The Congress party was looking to put undue pressure on its INDIA bloc allies. Even Nitish Kumar uttered during the Assembly poll campaigning period that the Congress party had least interest on INDIA bloc meetings. There is lot of dichotomy among the parties of the INDI alliance bloc. If we analyse the state-wise pattern of the INDI alliance for seat sharing then its look awkard.
First consider the case of West Bengal. It has third-highest number of seats after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Mamata Banerjee is the face of the INDI alliance in the State. The Congress party has no MLA in the State. Though the Congress party won the Sagardighi assembly by-poll but the MLA was pulled by the AITC in its kitty. Again the Congress party has no MLA in the State. The cadres of Mamata Banerjee and the Communists are diehard against each other since 80s. Its hard for them to reconcile to each other. Even in 2021 Assembly poll the Communists and the AITC fought against each other. Its unlikely that Mamata Banerjee will allocate seats to the Congress party or the Communists under INDI alliance.
Uttar Pradesh is the most important State for the NDA as well as the INDI alliance. But the INDI alliance is in tatters in UP. The Samajwadi Party is the main face of the alliance in UP. Tin just concluded Madhya Pradesh Assembly poll the SP demanded some seats from the Congress party to contest. But the Congress party not only rejected the SP request but also scolded Akhilesh Yadav and his party. The attitude of the Congress party in MP had completely alienated the SP cadres in UP against the Congress party. Besides, its unlikely that the SP will give the Congress party more than two to three seats in UP. The seats may be Amethi, Rae Bareli and Kanpur.
Even if we consider the vote share of the Congress party as per 2022 UP Assembly poll, even on seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli the Congress party stands much behind the SP too. The SP can stake its claim on these seats as per 2022 UP Assembly poll results. Its also being rumoured that Sonia Gandhi may go to Rajya Sabha ffrom Karnataka or contest Lok Sabha poll from Telengana. In 1999 LS poll she contested from Bellary besides Amethi. Though the BJP won Bellary LS seat after 1999 LS poll when Sonia Gandhi won and resigned from the seat. Considering Rahul Gandhi’s attitude towards Amethi LS seat and UP politics its very unlikely that he would contest from the seat in 2024 LS poll.
Bihar accounts for 40 seats and two prominent leaders of I.N.D.I Alliance Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar are from the State. Lalu Yadav is looking to appoint Nitish Kumar as the coordinator of the INDI alliance to Nitish Kumar so that he vacate his CM’s post for his son Tejaswi Yadav, the Deputy CM of Bihar. In Bihar, its tough to negotiate for seat negotiation. All three important allies of INDI alliance in Bihar the RJD, the JDU and the Congress party are looking for more seats than their sphere of influence. Currently, the JDU has 16 LS MPs from the State which iit won in 2019 in alliance with the NDA. But under the INDI Alliance the JDU will have to forgo some of its winning seats. The JDU will hardly get 10 to 12 LS seats for 2024 LS poll under I.N.D.I Alliance. In 2015 Bihar Assembly poll the JDU contested on only 101 assembly seats even then the JDU had nearly 115 MLAs. Even in 2019 LS poll when the JDU has only two LS MPs the BJP under NDA banner, given 17 seats to the JDU by forgoing its winning seats. So the seat distribution dilemma is a tough task for the INDI alliance in Bihar.
The condition of Maharashtra is very fluid. Its very unclear in Maharashtra which party will lead the alliance in the State. The NCP, the Congress party and the Uddhav Thackery led Shiv Sena (UBT) are the main parties in the State. The seat distribution will be very tough among these allies in the State.
The Aam Aadmi Party is also in the I.N.D.I Alliance. The political turf of the AAP is same as that of the Congress party. The AAP grew at the expense of the Congress party. Punjab and NCT of Delhi account for 20 LS seats. These two allies of the INDI alliance is vying with each other for these seats. Even AAP supremo declared in his party speech that he would contest all these seats. In no case these two parties will share seats accordingly. The AAP will force the Congress party to completely leave Punjab and NCT of Delhi to AAP. Finally the INDI alliance meeting may be called as a photo session of the alliance parties.
