The election results in the recently held five state assembly election has shattered the opposition camp as they were betting on these results with the hope that Congress will score a perfect 3/5. It is not only Congress which was hoping for that favourable result but even TMC leader Derek O Brien was confident of Congress losing only Rajasthan and winning all other three. The scene got reversed and barring Telangana, where Congress scored a victory, all the other three-Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan went in favour of BJP by a comfortable margin which the opposition camp was not anticipated.
In a sense it is shock to the I.N.D.I.A conglomeration and cracks in that opposition fort were visible even before they formally met to assess the extent of damage the results caused to them. It was Congress which is in a hurry to have a meet of I.N.D.I.A as it apprehends a counterattack on their wounded morale, if time is given to the regional parties. Leaders of regional parties sensing the mood of despair in Congress camp sharpened their arsenal on the GOP to have their own pound of flesh in the prospective negotiations of seat sharing in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The regional parties are not ready to stand by Congress at this dejected time and share the burden of defeat. The three parties-TMC, JDU-RJD and APP- distanced themselves with defeated Congress. Mamata Banerjee the CM of Bengal termed it as “the defeat of Congress and not the people” while Kunal Ghosh, the spokesperson of TMC is not even ready to appreciate the Telangana victory of Congress. He expressed doubts on the survival of Congress government in Hyderabad even before it is formally installed. TMC now plans to have “bigger role in national politics” replacing the Congress as it did in Bengal. Mamata’s public announcement of not being a invitee to I.N.D.I Alliance meet is a well thought out snub to the Congress high command. TMC is not even ready to concede its preeminent position to Congress in I.N.D.I Alliance as its leader Kunal Ghosh claimed that “the coalition of I.N.D.I.A is formed under the active leadership of Mamata Banerjee and their leader is going to play bigger role in national politics”.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav waiting for the moment to hit back at the Congress ever since his demand for five seats in Madhya Pradesh election was dismissed with a derogatory remark by Kamal Nath-led Congress. Akhilesh Yadav made known his intention of show “Congress its place” in Uttar Pradesh. If Akhilesh sticks to his plan to fight alone in UP, then the I.N.D.I. Alliance is in big trouble. The SP is suspicious of the Congress moves to wean away the Muslim votes from the SP. All the moves of Congress leaders in UP has not forgotten by Akhilesh Yadav. The UP Congress chief calling on the convicted SP leaders Azam Khan in Sitapur jail and Rahul Gandhi visit to BSP MP Danish Ali’s place in the wake of BJP MP Ramesh Bhiduri’s attack on the floor of the house and taking back some Muslim leaders from SP and BSP are prickly issues for Akhilesh.
With both SP and Congress fighting for the same Muslim votes and Congress high decibel statements for backward castes count in the state is an added friction in the vote-bank political game. The Yadav and Muslim combination is what SP feels its electoral bastion. With Congress fighting for the pie from the same social groups Akhilesh Yadav fears a drop in his grip on established SP voters. Moreover the SP leaders close to Akhilesh Yadav express their fears of SP by conceding the leadership of Congress to I.N.D.I Alliance will lessen their party’s image of being a second fiddle. They think any association with Congress will hit the SP and help Congress to revive in UP.
The plan of defeating BJP at the national level should not hit SP at the state level is what the senior advisers cautions Akhilesh Yadav. This is the unresolved dilemma of Akhilesh Yadav, whether to restrict himself to his fight with BJP in UP and consolidate the OBC &Muslim votes or join hands with Congress to fight BJP at the national level. The stakes of SP being very low at the national level and UP base is more important for the party’s survival, the chances of Akhilesh Yadav and his party SP moving away from I.N.D.I.A are high.
With the caste count promise of Congress in the four states failed to garner votes, Nitish Kumar, Bihar CM, the original votary of BC caste count feel the damage the defeat of Congress caused to his vote bank politics. With BJP victory despite its implicit opposition to the BC caste count and its projection as pro-BC with Modi as a mascot and BC leaders appointed as CMs, Nitish Kumar may have to seek a way to wriggle out of I.N.D.I Alliance. Chirag Paswan speculated that Nitish Kumar is trying to quit I.N.D.I Alliance block quietly and his unwell clause in not attending the Delhi meet is only an alibi to find time to recalculate the possible benefit of moving back to NDA.
Nitish is known to be a person who values power than political principles. If the founder of the alliance moves away, the foundation will shake and further widen the cracks in I.N.D.I Alliance edifice. The rivalry of Nitish and Lalu Yadav is still on and Lalu Prasad is trying to upstage his foe Nitish Kumar and that is evident from the way he announced the next I.N.D.I Alliance meet schedule without consulting his colleague in coalition in Bihar. Lalu is not holding any position in I.N.D.I Alliance, while Nitish was the one-time convenor of that coalition.
That will leave the two diehard fans of Rahul Gandhi named Tejaswi Yadav and M.K. Stalin. The Dravidian party leaders’ provocative anti-Santana Dharma statements are becoming a huge embarrassment for Congress and other parties of North India. The latest statement in parliament by the DMK MP Senthil calling the states of MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as “cow urine states” is sure to damage the prospects of opposition group in north-India. It was because of this provocative nature of DMK that Congress leaders kept Stalin out of their campaign in Madhya Pradesh. With latest diatribe by DMK MP, the gulf between Dravidian party and Congress will widen further.
With Mamata Banerjee of TMC, Aravind Kejriwal of AAP, Nitish Kumar of JDU, all in power as Chief Ministers and Akhilesh Yadav of SP not willing to accept the leadership of Congress for I.N.D.I Alliance the way forward is bleak for the opposition. The group already under the strain because of defeat of Congress is likely to crack under the pressure of internal contradictions thus paving the way for the straight third win for Narendra Modi.
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