A BJP hoarding in Madhya Pradesh capital, Bhopal (Image: The Hindu)
In just under a month from here, Madhya Pradesh is going to witness its upcoming assembly elections. Scheduled for November 17, the results will be unveiled on December 3. The electoral battleground is primarily between the incumbent party of 18 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and a resurgent Congress, buoyed by alleged anti-incumbency sentiments. The BJP’s ‘Vijay Rath’ traces its origins back to 2003, triumphing amid concerns over essential amenities like roads, water, and electricity. In 2008, internal discord within the Congress propelled them to victory, while the Modi wave secured their win in 2013. However, in 2018, Congress clinched victory, pledging debt relief, only to be undermined by internal conflicts, culminating in Jyotiraditya Scindia’s departure alongside other MLAs.
Examining the 2023 elections, there aren’t any dominant issues except the comparative debate surrounding Kamal Nath’s 15 months as the former Chief Minister versus Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s 18-year tenure as the current CM, along with the customary internal strife within the Congress.
BJP’s Rule and Congress’ Resurgence
Presently, both parties are vying for victory, having announced candidates for 228 out of 230 seats; the remaining two are yet to be determined. Madhya Pradesh boasts around 85 million registered voters, with women constituting a significant share of over 40 million. Both parties are diligently courting female voters, recognising their pivotal role in securing success. Numerous schemes and commitments have been introduced to sway this demographic.
The allocation of seats for women in the assembly polls is a fiercely debated issue, especially with the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam in effect. BJP has fielded 28 female candidates, while Congress has put forward 29. Notably, out of Congress’s 29, 20 hail from reserved seats for SCs and STs, and 12 of BJP’s 28 are from the same category. OBC leaders have been entrusted with 64 seats in BJP and 62 in Congress, who constitute fifty percent of the state’s population.
With their flagship programme, ‘Ladli Behna,’ bolstered by several expansions, the BJP seems well-positioned to give Congress a tough fight in the state, envisioning a swift victory. Various opinion polls conducted by different media outlets yield mixed results. For instance, the ABP-CVoter survey projects Congress securing between 108 to 120 seats out of 230, while BJP is anticipated to attain a slightly lower range of 106 to 118 seats. The threshold for victory stands at 116 seats.
In another pre-poll survey by IBC24, Congress emerges as the likely victor with 119 seats, while BJP is expected to gather 101 seats, fewer than its 2018 total of 109. Conversely, Times Now predicts a substantial victory for BJP, estimating 153 seats out of the 230-member Assembly, with Congress securing only 58. Similarly, the News Nation survey echoes a comparable outcome, indicating a commanding majority for BJP in this crucial Hindi heartland state. Thus, the election outcome remains uncertain, with both parties vying on equal footing.
Turning attention to the focal points of the BJP government’s tenure in the state, women and children, culture and tourism, agriculture, and farmers stand out. Notably, the state has implemented an anti-conversion law, and the action against mafia and rape accused has earned the CM the moniker of “Bulldozer Mama” alongside the familiar “Mama“.
Women’s Representation and Reserved Seats
From 2003 to 2023, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government in Madhya Pradesh has placed a strong emphasis on women and girls. Through resolute decision-making and developmental initiatives, Chouhan transformed Madhya Pradesh from a state once dubbed ‘Bimaru Pradesh‘ to a thriving one. The transformation includes cities progressing towards metro connectivity, boasting airport-like railway stations, world-class road networks, renowned educational institutions like IITs and IIMs, cities ranking among the cleanest in the nation, and more.
Under Chouhan’s leadership, various welfare schemes have been introduced for the welfare of women and the girl child, transitioning from initiatives like Ladli Lakshmi to Ladli Behna. These programs encompass a range of benefits, such as the Mukhyamantri Kanyadan Yojna, Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana, Annapurna Yojana, Kishori Shakti Yojana, Ladli Lakshmi 2.0, Lado Abhiyan (combating child marriage), Vridhha Pension, Divyang pension and many others.
In June 2023, during the first installment transfer of Rs 1000 to the accounts of 1.25 crore beneficiaries under the Ladli Behna Yojna, CM Chouhan told Organiser, “When I took office, the male-to-female sex ratio was 1000:911, and daughters were viewed as a burden. Recognising this, I introduced the Ladli Lakshmi Yojna in 2006. This scheme proved transformative. Subsequent schemes have been built upon this foundation. Ladli Behna did not emerge suddenly; I have been advocating for women in the state for a decade now.”
Beneficiary Savita Soni from Jabalpur expressed her joy with Organiser, stating that the money would grant her financial independence, eliminating the need to seek her husband’s approval for every expense. She also welcomed the CM’s commitment to increase the amount to Rs 3000 in the coming years.
Mamta Lodhi, a 50-year-old beneficiary from Bhedaghat’s Bheetha area, who supports her son’s family since her husband’s passing, explained that she would use the money to aid her son with their monthly expenses. She mentioned receiving Vidhwa pension of Rs 600 from the Government and emphasised that people in MP cannot afford another term under a Congress government, fearing it would set the state back by at least two decades.
Another beneficiary, Nasreen Bano, residing in Jabalpur, stated that Rs 1000 sufficed for her expenses. She affirmed her intention to vote Shivraj back to power, noting that everything had been on track under the BJP Government, not solely due to the scheme but due to overall governance.
Congress Manifesto and Promises for Farmers
Similar promises were made in the Congress manifesto announced ahead of the elections. Here are some of the highlights:
As Congress promises to waive farm loans in the manifesto, readers should know that BJP government, led by Chouhan, has implemented several significant welfare schemes for farmers in the state, including the Mukhyamantri Krishak Samriddhi Yojana, Kisan Samman Nidhi, Saur Sujala Yojana, Soil Health Card Scheme, Mukhyamantri Kisan Kalyani Yojana, Mukhyamantri Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana, Mukhyamantri Kisan Aay Badhotri Yojana, and more.
Organiser interviewed two beneficiaries in Madhya Pradesh who have experienced positive outcomes under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s BJP government.
Prakhar Mishra, a 28-year-old entrepreneur and full-time farmer residing in Umaria district, owns a two-acre plot of land. He benefits from the Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme, possesses a soil health card, and consistently sells crops worth a minimum of Rs two lakh per season through the government mandi system.
Rama Gond, another beneficiary, hails from Khamraoudh village in Shahdol district. He is a full-time farmer and a member of the vanvasi community. Holding a Below Poverty Line (BPL) card, his house was constructed under the PM Awas Yojna. Rama also receives benefits from the Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme and participates in other farmer-centric programs. He expresses a desire for Shivraj to continue as CM.
Cultural Development in State
In addition to benefiting women and farmers, the BJP-led government under Shivraj Singh Chouhan has made significant investments in the promotion of religious sites, cultures, and traditions to boost tourism. Notable sites include Mahakal Lok in Ujjain, Salkanpur Devi Lok near Bhopal, Ekatma Dham in Omkareshwar, Parashuram Lok in Janapav near Indore, Hanuman Lok in Chhindwara, and Ram Raja Lok in Orcha, Bundelkhand. These projects are at various stages of completion, with some already inaugurated.
To counter the BJP’s Hindu-centric approach, the Congress has also made efforts, such as erecting a statue of Hanuman Ji in Chhindwara and inviting Sadhus like Dhirendra Kirishna Shashtri and Pradeep Mishra.
Tribal Demographics and Electoral Significance
Tribals constitute over 21 per cent of the State’s population, with 47 reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes. Of the 52 districts, six are classified as “fully tribal,” and 15 as “partially tribal.” The Bhil community makes up nearly 40 percent of the state’s ST population, followed by the Gonds at 34 percent. In the 2018 polls, the BJP won 16 of the ST seats, while the Congress secured 30. The Congress is leveraging incidents of atrocities against tribals to criticise the Government. For instance, they highlighted a case in which a man with alleged BJP links urinated on a tribal man in Sidhi district.
Organiser also spoke with the Vanshakar family, belonging to the Scheduled Caste category, residing on encroached land in Madhya Pradesh. They expressed dissatisfaction with the Shivraj Government, advocating for Kamal Nath as CM. They cited issues with the PM Awas scheme, lack of benefits from other programs, and demands for money from the local councillor.
Gwalior-Chambal Magic
The upcoming elections in 29 seats, including those held by key figures like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Budni and Kamal Nath in Chhindwara, promise close contests. Noteworthy battles will also occur in Dimni (Narendra Singh Tomar), Narsinghpur (Prahlad Singh Patel), Niwas (Faggan Singh Kulaste), Indore-1 (Kailash Vijayvagiya), Datia (Narottam Mishra), Lahar (Leader of the Opposition Govind Singh), and others.
Political pundits suggest that if the BJP can address the speculated internal discord, it stands a chance at returning to power
Well there is another statistic to be kept in mind while eyeing on these seats are the performances of the respective party candidates in the Chambal-Gwalior belt. It is a proven fact that the party performing well in this region can swiftly win the elections. If we look at the data of last 50 years, except for two elections out of eleven, the party winning the region has won the state elections. The data is like—1972 (BJP-19, Congress-10), 1977 (BJP-32, Congress-2), 1980 (BJP-7, Congress 25), 1985 (BJP-7, Congress-26), 1990 (BJP-24, Congress-5), 1993 (BJP-9, Congress-19), 1998 (BJP-16, Congress-9), 2003 (BJP-22, Congress-8), 2008 (BJP-16, Congress-3), 2013 (BJP-20, Congress-12), 2018 (BJP-7, Congress-26).
Congress, I.N.D.I. Alliance and Internal Feud
Tensions are escalating within the INDI bloc over the allocation of seats in the state ahead of the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Samajwadi Party had a tiff with Congress over not giving them seats; also reminded them of the alliance rules. The conflict intensified as the Congress unveild its candidates, sparking frustration within the SP. The Congress is prioritising a showdown with the BJP and cautioning against splitting the vote. Initially, the INDI Alliance aimed to unseat the BJP, but seat-sharing remains unresolved. Parties are now pursuing their individual objectives, with the Congress striving for an improved performance.
Additionally, internal strife is brewing within the Congress between two of its most senior leaders, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh. They are engaged in heated arguments and trading allegations against each other. At one point, they even spoke of tearing each other’s shirts. Other videos depict individuals performing tantra puja in support of Kamal Nath’s victory. CM Shivraj commented on this, questioning the unity within the Congress and remarking, “Whose Congress is this? Sonia Gandhi’s, Mallikarjun Kharge’s, or Kamal Nath’s? I suppose it is K-Congress, as he decides everything on his own.”
Following SP leader Akhilesh Yadav’s statement, journalists asked Nath about the alliance, to which he responded dismissively with the remark Akhilesh Wakhilesh, ko Chhodo. Digvijay Singh later called Nath out, calling it a friendly disagreement between alliance members. Furthermore, Congress is facing protests from its own party workers in 40 assembly seats, with five reported resignations. In some areas, supporters even burned effigies of their own leaders due to dissatisfaction with ticket allocations.
Quest for a CM Candidate
As for the CM candidate in Congress, Kamal Nath is set to be the face if allowed by Singh and his supporters. In contrast, the BJP has yet to announce its CM candidate. At one point, it appeared as though Shivraj was stepping down, but he has reasserted himself amidst allegations of being sidelined. The BJP is approaching this election with the Modi factor in hand, with slogans and songs echoing the theme of MP ke Man me Modi…
Political pundits suggest that if the BJP can address the speculated internal discord, it stands a chance at returning to power. However, the choice of CM candidate remains uncertain, with potential candidates including Kailash Vijayvagiya, Rakesh Singh, and Dr Narrottam Mishra.
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