There is a story in Panchatantra titled, ‘Ranga Siyar’ (Blue Jackal), which talks of the tragic end of the Jackal, who acquires blue colour after falling into an indigo tub. He misused his new disguise to claim supremacy in the jungle. However, when his fellow jackals begin to howl one day, he joins in unison, revealing his true colours. The recent opposition meeting in Patna called by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, attended by fifteen political parties, is a reminder of the story of ‘Ranga Siyar’. However, the JD(U) leader known for his dramatic volte-face seems to have forgotten that efforts to forge an ‘opposition unity’ had failed in the past too.
Political pundits were hoping for some big announcements after the June 23 meeting. However, nothing significant came out of the meeting except for anti-BJP rhetoric in fighting the elections together. There was neither any proposal/discussion on the ‘common minimum program’ nor any decision on the Prime Ministerial candidate. The fact that leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and MK Stalin skipped the press briefing after the meeting insinuates the bumpy road ahead in terms of a ‘grand alliance’ of opposition parties.
Is this opposition meeting a new one?
The June 23 meeting was one of many of its kind. In the past, political parties opposed to the BJP had gathered to pose a united front a few months before the last Lok Sabha elections. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee hosted the meeting of 23 political parties at Kolkata’s Brigade Parade grounds on January 19, 2019. However, the failure of the ‘opposition’s efforts’ can be gauged by the fact that in the 17th Lok Sabha, the BJP returned to power with a clear-cut majority of 303 seats and 37.36 per cent votes, the highest vote share for a party since the 1989 general elections.
The proposed alliance with Congress at the helm of affairs may well turn out to be what Devendra Fadnavis referred to as the ‘Parivar Bachao’ alliance, as most of the participating parties (RJD, NCP, NC, DMK etc) are promoters of political dynasties and nepotism
In terms of the BJP-led NDA, two significant changes have happened since 2019. The Shiv Sena (SS) has switched sides and joined UPA since Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Elections concluded in late 2019. With 18 MPs on its original list, SS has split into two factions and the majority bloc is with the NDA. Furthermore, the cadre voter of Shiv Sena is pro-Hindutva and therefore, Eknath Shinde led faction of SS has an edge over Uddhav Thackery. Another party that walked out of NDA in the middle of 2022 was the Janata Dal (United), and its leader Nitish Kumar once again joined hands with its arch-rival RJD, to form the government. It is to be noted that in July 2017, Mr Kumar had publicly accused RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav of corruption and snapped ties with it.
In the Patna meet, parties like the Janata Dal (Secular), Bahujan Samaj Party, Biju Janata Dal, Shiromani Akali Dal, YSR Congress, and Bharata Rashtra Samiti were not invited. Also, many parties gathered in both meetings have been at loggerheads in their respective states. The unease between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party was evident in the June 23 meeting itself when the latter wanted the former to clarify its stance on the Centre’s ordinance.
Where do the parties stand electorally?
Out of the 15 political parties that participated in the opposition meeting, only Trinamool Congress (TMC), Samajwadi Party (SP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could be considered a new ally. The rest of the 11 political parties are already in alliance with Congress in different states (pre or post-2019). Interestingly, PDP has 0, AAP has one and SP has only 3 Lok Sabha seats. Given that J&K has only 6 seats and PDP strength is limited to 3 seats in the Kashmir region, it is an insignificant player in national politics in terms of numbers. However, the stand of BSP as of now is more inclined to contest independently of the two alliances. Therefore, even if it takes a final shape, the so-called united opposition is not expected to be impactful in UP, the largest state in India with 80 Lok Sabha seats. As far as the AAP is concerned, its discomfort with the Congress is well-known.
In Bihar, Nitish’s credibility is at its lowest due to multiple somersaults and his alliance partners, RJD and Congress, are internally suspicious of his moves. Nitish failed to get himself named as the convenor of the united opposition, despite taking the lead in hosting the meet. The loss of the Nitish-led alliance in recent by-elections for assembly seats has signalled that the people have not taken Nitish’s flip-flop kindly. His carefully crafted Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) voter base has also begun to disintegrate. Two of his one-time closest aides from the Luv-Kush combination (Kurmi and Kushwaha), RCP Singh and Upendra Kushwaha, deserted him after the split with NDA as they probably sensed the public mood on the ground. Among Dalit and Maha Dalit, his adversaries are now Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, a recent turncoat. Absence of Mayawati, along with above mentioned Dalit leaders in north India is surely going to harm the prospects of a ‘grand alliance’ both in terms of inclusiveness and almost 22 per cent of Dalit voters in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
However, the biggest challenge is emerging for the Congress itself. Since the next meeting venue was finalised in a Congress-ruled state, it signals that the Congress is not comfortable playing second fiddle to any other opposition party in terms of leadership of the united opposition. But the party needs first to set its house in order. In poll-bound Rajasthan, for instance, the rivalry between the Congress chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot is well-known. In Madhya Pradesh, the tussle between Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath had brought down the Congress government in the state. The recent victory in Karnataka may have made the Congress party euphoric.
‘Parivar Bachao’ Alliance
Nevertheless, success in a few states in the assembly polls may not signal a comfortable win in the Lok Sabha. With only 52 seats in its kitty in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party could not even secure 10 per cent of seats to claim the post of opposition leader as per the convention. It will also need to counter the label of a dynastic party lacking internal democracy.
The proposed alliance with Congress at the helm of affairs may well turn out to be what Devendra Fadnavis referred to as the ‘Parivar Bachao’ alliance, as most of the participating parties (RJD, NCP, NC, DMK etc) are promoters of political dynasties and nepotism. TMC leader Mamta Banerjee’s statement after the June 23 meet about history starting from Bihar insinuating at the JP movement of 1974-75 doesn’t fit well in this case. The call by Jayaprakash Narayan was against the autocratic government led by a Prime Minister whose election was declared void by the Allahabad court on June 12, 1975 in the Indira Gandhi vs Raj Narain case. The present government with its recent outreach program seems to have popular support despite a few hiccups in states like Himachal and Karnataka. With many of the opposition leaders marred in corruption cases, and with neither common ideological ground nor any constructive agenda for the voters other than challenging the BJP in the upcoming polls the opposition will have to do enough brain-storming before coming to a seat-sharing formula in Shimla. The proposal to call the new alliance as ‘Patriotic Democratic Alliance’ may only appear as old wine being served in a new bottle.
(Anushree teaches Political Science at Zakir Husain Delhi College, University of Delhi. She has done her PhD on ‘Political dynasties in electoral politics’ from the Centre for Political Studies, JNU. She has also done her Post-graduation in Radio & TV journalism from the Indian Institute of Mass Communication and has written extensively on socio-political issues for print media as well as digital platforms)
(Santosh Pathak is a political analyst and currently the State media in-charge of Bihar BJP)
