Shruthee M S
After a decade, the DMK party is all set to form the government in Tamil Nadu by winning a comfortable majority of 159 seats with its allies. The burden of winning on both the Dravidian parties was huge this election. DMK’s party chief M K Stalin was under heavy pressure to prove himself as a leader who can steer the party to victory in the absence of his father. His road to the Chief ministership has been a long one indeed. The AIADMK has seen many turmoils within the party after the demise of Jayalalitha in 2016 without a political heir then. Edappadi Palaniswami’s rise in the party and his role as a competent chief minister has earned him a good public will. For him, this election was important to fasten his grip over the party and put an end to leadership rivalry. Both the parties entered the arena without their political stalwarts and were at high stakes to prove themselves and earn public trust.
The contest has been tighter than what was expected by exit polls, with AIADMK giving a tough fight in many constituencies. The DMK alliance has secured victory in over 159 seats out of the 234 assembly constituencies, with the DMK alone winning 133. The alliance swept Northern and Central Tamil Nadu and did considerably well in Southern Tamil Nadu too. Chennai district has once again proved itself as the Bastion of DMK as the party swept all 16 seats in Chennai and regained several constituencies back. M K Stalin won from Kolathur while his son Udhayanidhi Stalin won with a huge mandate from Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni.
The West of TN, known as the Kongu Belt has backed AIADMK largely and has once again proven itself as the party’s fortress, winning more than 60% of seats in the region. AIADMK performed well in Salem due to the large Vanniyar votes and Edappadi’s influence in the district and swept Coimbatore too. The Kongu Belt is seen advantageous for the BJP too and they have secured two seats from the belt- Coimbatore South and Modakurichi while losing Dharapuram where their state party Chief L Murugan contested, by a narrow margin of 668 votes. Most of the ministers from ADMK regime have retained their seats in Western TN.
Anti- incumbency factor against AIADMK played a huge factor in their loss, despite the party giving a tough fight. But other factors also impacted vote swaying this time. The 10.5% internal reservation for vanniyar community hit the AIADMK’s performance, specifically in Northern Tamil due to Anti- Vanniyar Consolidation. Even in Vanniyar dominant constituencies where PMK fielded its candidates, like Arcot, Sholinghur and Tiruppatur, their candidates lost. In Southern TN and Delta region too, consolidation of OBCs against the Vanniyar internal reservation helped DMK win many seats. The AIADMK- PMK alliance and the internal quota bore fruits only in Western Tamil Nadu. Surprisingly, Central Tamil Nadu (Delta zone) which is dominated by farmers swayed heavily towards DMK this election and led to the dethroning of many big names from AIADMK like M R Vijayabaskar, despite the writing off of ₹12,110 crore crop loans of farmers.
Two parties’ growth in the state needs attention- one is NTK and the other is BJP. Seeman’s party that stood independently in all 234 constituencies won no seats this election but the party’s vote share has significantly risen to 8% from 1% in 2016. BJP, an alliance partner of AIADMK has won four seats out of the 20 seats that it stood this time and gave a tough fight in many of the constituencies , thereby marking its political presence significantly for the first time in the state. TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK failed to put a good show, despite all the hype about the party. DMDK that allied with AMMK sees no future with a rapidly falling vote share. MNM party of Kamal Haasan has failed to capture votes and didn’t win a single seat, and its party Chief Kamal Haasan lost to BJP’s Vanathi Srinivasan.
Meanwhile DMK’s allies played a significant role in consolidation of votes. Congress, the biggest ally of DMK managed to win 18 out of the 25 seats it contested and received 4.29% of the total votes in the state. DMK has managed to keep its minority votes impact, and has performed well in regions with sizeable population of minorities. VCK helped consolidate Dalit votes for the DMK alliance. CPI and CPM of the DMK alliance have performed better than 2016 elections, winning 2 seats each. The strong anti BJP rhetoric of DMK and its allies helped them up their game further.
