The 69th year of Republic Day celebration was different. It set up new benchmark by inviting 10 Heads of the States of ASEAN countries. The emotions and jubilations were very high. The Op-Ed write-up by Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi was published in 27 newspapers in ten languages of 10 ASEAN countries. PM Modi tweeted “Shared values, common destiny and free from contest and claims are the focal points of this meeting.”
The theme of the Beating Retreat Parade was maritime security. Therefore, looking at the diplomatic move of PM Modi and its underpinning by celebrating the Republic Day along with 10 ASEAN countries redefines a new world order in Asia in particular and the World in general. It has been said time and again that epicentre of world politics has shifted from the West to the East. In tectonic shift of power, readjustment is required. Since the end of Cold War, China’s rise as an eminent world power challenging the US is being discussed. India has been an emerging power. With the beginning of the Modi Era, the reluctance of Indian gesture was shed off and a strong India, a contender of its share at least in Asia emerged. The Doklam tussle was a flashpoint. This led to belief among many South East countries that India could be the best partner to balance the Dragon.
Throughout the Cold War, the US setting in the South East Asia was based on ideological designing. The US set-up the grouping of nations under its military umbrella to check Communist influence. The US tried to save Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos from falling into the trap of Communist China. The regional military organisations were pushing military and strategic interests in the region. The core interests of the region were denied. China’s overstepping in the region created a ‘one way traffic’, less trade more fear evolved among the region. That is how most of the ASEAN countries started looking at India to come forward not merely to checkmate the increasing speed of China but to accelerate the trade and security ties. PM Modi defined his Look East Policy during the 12th India-ASEAN summit in Myanmar in 2014 where he explained to take the joint venture beyond military and strategic calculus. There is a strong civilisational connect between the two regions. The
closer links of Buddhism and Ramayana were the green belts to strengthen the socio-economic ties. An ASEAN relation with India has grown steadily from 1992 onwards since India articulated the Look East policy. In 1996, India’s relationship with the ASEAN got upgraded to that of a dialogue partner. Six years later, India became a summit level partner. In 2012, the relationship transformed into a “Strategic partnership”. India in October decided to establish a permanent mission to the ASEAN.
India from the very beginning advocated for the rule-based system on sea. The unprecedented rise of China is a shared concern, and ASEAN nations engage India as their alternative to an increasingly assertive China. China overtly denied the share of littoral states in South China Sea. Most of the states failed to create a wave against China due to Chinese power. ASEAN has failed to put up a joint front against China’s building of artificial islands across the South China Sea. The support from ASEAN countries to Philippines and Vietnam has lukewarm. China with $12 trillion economy and a $ 450 billion trade with ASEAN remains an elephant in the room in each of the ASEAN countries.
India and ASEAN are on the same page on the issue of China’s alleged hegemony in the South China Sea. Shri Modi said from ASEAN forum, “India assures the ASEAN of its steady support towards achieving a rule-based regional security architecture that best attests to the region’s interests and its peaceful development”. Tourism is another area where India and ASEAN find common ground. In the joint declaration of 2012 they decided to have framework for cooperation to prevent, disrupt and combat international terrorism through the exchange of information, intelligence and capacity building. The Delhi Declaration underlines specific concern about cross-border terrorism and freedom of navigation that commits them to an early implementation of various agreed projects, including their Plan of Action 2016-2020. It was also expressed that better connectivity with India’s 7 North Eastern states with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam brought ASEAN to share borders with India. It is believed that new focus on Act East policy will connect the Indian states by rail and road.
The ASEAN countries view India as non-expansionist power and share no territorial or maritime disputes with it. India’s outreach comes at a time when China is deepening its military, economic and political footprints in South East Asia and beyond. India’s participation in ASEAN emphasises the centrality of South East Asia in the regional economic and security architecture. Prime Minister Modi has visited all ten ASEAN countries. India has signed defense and shipping agreements with a number of ASEAN states. It also proposed line of credit of 1 billion US Dollar for physical and digital connectivity with ASEAN.
Highlights of Delhi Declaration
- Strengthen maritime cooperation through existing relevant mechanisms including the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF) to address
common challenges on maritime issues. - Work together to prevent and manage accidents and incidents at sea and promote effective coordination between ASEAN and India in maritime search and rescue
- Deepen cooperation in combating terrorism in all forms and manifestations, violent extremism and radicalisation
- Strengthen cooperation between ASEAN and India on cyber-security capacity building
- Further strengthen ASEAN-India economic
relations through effective implementation of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area - Cooperate for conservation and sustainable use of marine resources in Indian and Pacific Oceans
- Promote maritime transport cooperation between ASEAN and India, and encourage private sector participation in development of seaports, maritime logistics network and maritime services
- Continue to enhance cooperation for ensuring long-term food and energy security in our region through strengthening cooperation in agriculture and energy sectors
- Continue to deepen sectoral relations in science and technology
- Encourage health cooperation in areas relevant to the ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda
- Cement a stronger cultural link by promoting
cultural tourism - Strengthen cooperation in education in the form of setting up of Entrepreneurship Development and Vocational Training Centres
- Strengthen ASEAN-India cooperation in disaster management and humanitarian assistance
- Promote dialogue on empowerment of women,
- Promote cooperation in environmental management and climate change
- Enhance cooperation in biodiversity conservation and management, through exchange of
knowledge and experience - Reaffirm commitment to enhance digital
connectivity in line with MPAC 2025 and AIM 2020 - Encourage the early completion of the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project and extend this Trilateral Highway to Cambodia, Lao PDR and Viet Nam
Challenges Ahead
India does not enjoy robust relations with all ASEAN countries. There are different sets of interests in the 10 countries. Their priorities are guided by their strategic interests and bilateral understanding. As a result, India’s success in interacting with the ASEAN region is largely issue based and mostly bilateral in nature. However, there is little consensus among the ASEAN countries on what is expected from India in terms of a political or security role. For example, while Singapore, Vietnam and Myanmar are supportive of a stronger Indian security presence in the region, Malaysia and Indonesia are not interested. Thailand and Indonesia maintain that the security of the Malacca Straits must lie primarily with the littoral states. Laos and Cambodia are closer to China and not much excited with India’s larger role in the region.
Second, Trade with China and ASEAN countries is much larger in comparison to India. While China-ASEAN trade accounts 15.2 per cent of the block’s total trade, its trade with India only constitutes 2.6 per cent. For India, it is not possible to match the Chinese feat. Since China has geographical advantage, the real challenge is meeting India’s own targets. On trade, it is nowhere near reaching the goal of $200 billion by 2020 set five years ago. Connectivity projects with ASEAN like the trilateral highway to Thailand via Myanmar, are years behind schedule. Chinese outreach is wide in South East Asia due to its early entry. China enjoys the biggest industrial supply chain in the region. Indian size is very small in comparison to China. India has to push its more industrial sectors in the regions to enlarge its size.
The Republic Day Diplomacy has evolved new ideas. India’s Look East Policy is not based on deterring China. It does not see the region from the prism of strategic stratagem. It is more than that. Therefore, ASEAN countries are full of lights for India. The Sino-centric Asian order has been challenged by the smart diplomacy of Modi. India is aware of its geographical locations; it may not be competing alone with China. More than one partner are moving together so that Chinese hegemony could be challenged. Myanmar is one of the ASEAN countries which desperately want to get rid of Chinese clutch. If Singapore along with other South Asian countries is willing to invest in Myanmar, its acute dependence over China will be restored. Therefore, it needs combined efforts. Modi’s Republic Day diplomacy has succeeded in creating viable joint ventures among the ASEAN countries which would create a new Asian World Order in which each of them will have a share.
(The writer is HoD Political Science in Central University of Haryana)
– Dr Satish Kumar
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