Shahid Abbasi comes from a wealthy family like Sharif. He has a political family background. His father, late Khaqan Abbasi, was a minister in the General Zia-ul-Haq Government
Dr Pramod Pathak
Where else but in Pakistan! It was expected the history to repeat itelf and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would not complete his term. It has happened time and again since Pakistan came into being. Pakistan is about to celebrate the 70th Independence day and it has set a record of not letting a single PM complete the term. Unseating of Nawaz was expected. On the day, the court verdict was to be declared Ayesha Siddiqa, scholar of military history in Pakistan, explored the scenario of “Country without PM” for Pakistan (The Hindu July 28). From the Sharif family Raj, if not Nawaz’s daughter Maryam, then brother Shahbaz Sharif, is expected to take over as PM after being duly elected within 45 days. In the meanwhile it was anticipated that either Sharif’s current Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar, favoured by both the Establishment and the rival Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Teheerik-e-Insaf (PTI) or Sharif’s Finance Minister and also Father-in-law of Sharif’s other daughter, to take over for the interim period. But neither of them stepped into the PM’s shoes. A proxy has taken over. Nawaz was forced to let his staunch ally and former Petroleum Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to take over as PM. Shahid Abbasi comes from a wealthy family like Sharif. He has a political family background. His father, late Khaqan Abbasi, was a minister in the General Zia-ul-Haq government. He is well educated with technical background, has successfully run a private airline, Air Blue, and is no novice to the political system in Pakistan. He was imprisoned by Musharraf for two years. As a PM, he is formidable candidate to take over. His staunch support to his mentor will be put test just within a month and half.
There are fair indications that it was Judiciary-Army nexus with Judiciary actively supported by sleeping partner, Army. What can be aptly called, judicial dictatorship, has ousted Nawaz. Ever since the Panama papers were leaked, Imran Khan’s PTI was on the roads protesting for removal of Sharif. The media too had become strident of late in denunciation of the Sharif family Raj after it was revealed that Maryam Sharif had forged property papers and both his sons had built business Empire out of the country. Although the Court appointed a special investigation committee to investigate undisclosed wealth of the family, it showed Sharif would be on his way out for holding a remunerative position in the family- based concern. He may cry hoarse that he hasn’t received a single rupee, Sharif has been nailed for being unreliable and dishonest in conducting the PM’s office.The Court has barred him from political activity for the whole of his life, possibly to end his career as a politician. Not only him but his family as a whole has been indicted.
It is generally acknowledged that business acumen of Nawaz helped ,otherwise, beleaguered and growth hampered Pakistan to receive accolades from the international media. Wall Street Journal praised Pakistan for having achieved 5% growth with the rise of the middle class which can help bring stability in the country. The IMF showed satisfaction on the economic front. Poverty alleviation rose and terrorist attacks and sectarian deaths showed a downward trend. It was recognised that Pakistan was about to emerge as free market economy where western countries, and China as well, would find a large market for the consumable goods. However, as Khaled Ahmad writes in his “After Nawaz” (The Ind. Epxr. July 29) average Pakistani was averse to these good tidings. They assessed “All this to be a Hindu-Jewish propaganda”. This showed to what extent Arabization of the Pakistani public- aawaamhas gone. Hard Islamic theological indoctrination has blinded Pakistani public. All this ,though went in favour of Sharif, was antagonistic to the interests of army generals, both active in service and the retired. They run parallel economy. Ever since the US got frustrated with the sham anti-terror campaign conducted by the Pakistani Army, the generals decided not to assume power. So the manoeuvres behind the screen point to active support to Abbasi in collusion with Imran Khan. He too is waiting in the wings. The street battle launched by PTI went unhindered but for the support from Army. It made Sharif’s fall inevitable.
Pakistan is not run by elected governments, but by triple “A” combination of Army, America and Allah (i.e. Mullahdom). Of late, after Trump’s election, Pakistan has come under stricter scrutiny from the US establishment. Various agencies in US are now conducting cost-benefit analysis of financial and military support to Pakistan. It is failing on many fronts. US Senator John McCain is after nailing Pakistan. He is favouring to impose gradual diplomatic, military and economic costs on Pakistan if it continued to provide support to terrorist groups, including the Taliban and Haqqani network. This is with the view to make smooth power transition, establish stability in war- torn Afghanistan and to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a launch pad for attack on America. With the US public opinion is turning against Pakistan, active role of America in Pakistan will be on wane. The US President Trump signed military aid contracts worth more than 1000 b$ with Saudi Arabia for equipping Saudi Arabia in warfare and mid-level armaments for the war in Yemen. These are the ones Pakistan has been using against Bharat constantly in cross-border infiltration. Saudi Arabia has been supplying fodder for Wahhabi indoctrination through madrassas all over Pakistan. Hence, afterwards ,Arabia is expected to divert some of the US military aid to Pakistan to make up for deficiency as it continues to support cross-border infiltration and terrorism. As soon as amendments by Senator McCain are implemented, it will be as if America has withdrawn. But Arabia will step in its shoes to make up for the third “A”. As far the AAA nexus, its nature will not change. The ISI and the Pak Army will continue to get fodder for cross-border activities and situation for Bharat is not expected to change. However in these transient times, the Army and the ISI- sponsored groups being not accountable for any government or to America, it can result in intensifying the cross-border activities.
Nawaz Sharif was active in pushing cooperation with China for infrastructural input and China-Pak Economic Corridor. Chinese proved astute manipulators. They did not come to the rescue of Nawaz. China has treated the matter as internal matter of Pakistan. It has assured to go ahead with the CPEC project amidst the report that some of these ventures can be probed for corruption. China is likely to enhance infra-structural input in Pakistan in lieu of the facilities like storages all along the road, mineral resources to be exported from Baluchistan and to the extent of having permanent military bases in Pakistan to detriment of the defence establishment in Bharat. Pakistani dependence on China will rise and Pakistan will shift over to ACA –Army, China, Allah nexus, knowingly or unknowingly. That will initiate the shift in policy towards Bharat. Pakistan has potential to be a big pendent in the defence establishment, the pearl string China is building around South Asia. Bharat will have to take long term view of this shift to ACA and start planning to counter it.
Sharif and his family have fallen out of favour of the Pakistani army. Imran Khan has ambitions to step in as PM. Shahid Abbasi too is a formidable candidate to counter Sharif. The SIT is yet to submit full report to the court. It is opportune time for the foes of Nawaz to root him out of the country. It has happened to him earlier when he went in exile. His family members too are expected to be inducted. Shahbaz too is part of the family. For now, being sponsored for PM’s post, PTI and other foes are expected to put all the efforts to defeat him. Although firmly entrenched in Lahore, Islamabad appears to be far away for Shahbaz.
(The writer is a freelancer)
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