Intro: The future of geopolitics in IOR would be determined by the interplay and relationship between China, India and the US in Future. And Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands can provide us with an opportunity to influence events much deeper into South-East Asia.
Strategic Centrality of India in Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
Geography plays a significant role in determination of economic wellbeing and foreign policy considerations of a nation. This is borne out by the changes in the geo-strategic standing of IOR, both in economic and political terms in the last two decades. Historically IOR has always been a vortex of global activity; however, in the 21st century it has truly become an “Oceanic Highway” resulting in a dramatic shift in global power play in Asia-Pacific region—especially in the IOR. In this strategically important space of IOR, India enjoys a strategic centrality of vital geo-strategic, economic and energy network and is well poised to play a major role in shaping the strategic environment of the region. Towards this, security and development of Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI) is an essential first step which would also provide traction to our “Look and Act East” policy.
Threat Analysis
The 21st century global geopolitics and that of the IOR in particular is changing, and changing fast. It is witness to enormous strategic competition for access to energy involving China, India, Japan, Korea, USA and various other countries. The economic growth amongst the littorals is also fuelling their ambitions. Globalisation of Chinese economy and its unprecedented hunger for resources has enhanced its reliance on the seas. It is anticipated that by 2020, Sea lines of communication (SLOCs) of IOR will see tankers transporting almost eight billion barrels of oil daily through it and consequently through the Strait of Malacca. Development of alternate ports and pipelines is also a part of Chinese desire to ensure an alternate to Malacca Strait. That is why you have the increasing Chinese deployments in IOR. It has signalled its intent by operating the Gulf of Aden patrol and, sailing in the vicinity of ANI and utilising Operational Turn Round facilities (String of Pearls) close to Indian mainland. While operations at Sittwe port are likely to result in increase in traffic from the Indian ports on the eastern seaboard, operations at Kyaukphyu and Dawei port will cause increase in international and Chinese traffic, through the Bay of Bengal to the west and the Andaman Sea to the East of ANI altering the security environment in the region.
Also of interest is the development in Coco Islands which is just about 20 nm north of North Andaman where the runway length is slowly being enhanced over the years. China therefore is fast becoming a major player in this region. The naval modernisation plan of China is reflective of the fact that control of the Indian Ocean is emerging as its priority.
The geopolitics of Asia is becoming further complex with the involvement of other regional and extra-regional powers-South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and USA amongst others. The US has enhanced its military deployment and has become a major player in the region. It views Chinese economic and naval growth, and its actions in South and East China Sea as a threat to the region and the SLOCs. On the other hand China views the US rebalancing as an attempt to encircle it. Therefore, in the final analysis it can be said that the future of geopolitics in IOR would be determined by the interplay and relationship between China, India and the US. Other major powers and littorals will also influence the same. India should be watchful of Chinese development in IOR and militarisation of ‘String of Pearls’. For India, strategically Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands provides an opportunity to influence events much deeper into SE Asia.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI)
ANI, located over 1200 Km east of Indian mainland, constitutes less than 1% of its landmass but provides for over 30% of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of India with tremendous potential for seabed resources. Located closer to a large number of littorals (160 Kms from Indonesia, 450 Kms from Thailand and 600 Kms from Malaysia and Mayanmar), they sit astride the strategic sea lane leading to the Strait of Malacca. They offer India a strategic view over the shipping traffic between the gulf and the Strait of Malacca transporting nearly 17 million tons of oil every day (300 ships daily) to growing economics of SE Asia nations—China, Japan, and Korea etc.
Terrain and Infrastructure Aspects
ANI comprises of a chain of 572 islands, of which only 37 are inhabited. Stretching over a length of 720 Kms, they provide a vast coast line of 1920 Kms and an EEZ of approximate six lakh Square Kilometres. They are thus vital for our economic and strategic needs. The two major subdivisions, Northern Group of Islands (NGI) and the Southern Group of Islands (SGI) have a spread of almost 190 nm and 165 nm each and are separated by the ten degree channel which itself is 80 nm wide. Bridging this gap remains a formidable challenge. Since the work still needs to be done, SGI is more susceptible to threat due to its vastness and the isolated location of the Islands.
Geographically, SGI is divided into three main groups-Carnic, Nancowry and the Great Nicobar Islands (GNI). Carnic accommodates Air Force Station Carnicobar. The Mus jetty in Carnic has limited capability to host civil/naval ships. Nancowry group of islands on the other hand comprises of approximately 10 islands accommodating some Naval and Coast Guard elements. GNI is the largest Island in SGI. It has a runway of approximately 1000 metres length being extended in a phased manner. It is the southernmost airfield of the country. Campbell Bay jetty also has limited capability. Indira Point overlooks the crucial six degree channel, the hub of all maritime activity and hence plays an important and crucial role for GNI.
The islands occupied a marginal position in India’s strategic consciousness until October 2001, when Delhi established a new Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC) in the local capital, Port Blair.
The ANC is India’s first and only joint tri-service command, with rotating three-star commanders-in-chief from the Army, Navy and Air Force reporting directly to the chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee
Infrastructure Development in ANI
Infrastructure development is a necessary criterion for economic growth and functioning of a society. However, infrastructure development in ANI has a few peculiarities. Firstly 94% of Island is covered by forest land/wild life sanctuary. This combined with proximity to the coast line and Protection of Aboriginal Tribes Act shrouds development in a maze of rules and regulations with its resultant unimaginable delays. Secondly, the working season is restricted to six months in a year due to excessive monsoon rains, leading to longer gestation period for a project. Thirdly, lack of raw material combined with the remoteness/lack of accessibility to the Islands, and delay due to reasons explained above escalates the cost of the project manifold. GNI is still inaccessible even today due to the destruction of the North-South road after the Tsunami of 2004. Completion of the reconstruction of North-South road therefore holds the key to development in the area of GNI up to Indira Point.
The way ahead logically is development, but considering the dynamics of the process, it seems to be a tall order. Developing ANI will have its own peculiar vulnerabilities. An increased awareness of our unique maritime position in terms of geo-strategy and geo-economics will be a key to our
ability to be able to play a meaningful role in contributing to security and stability in IOR.
Air Marshal PK Roy (Retd) (The writer has been the Commander-in-Chief of the Andaman and Nicobar Command)
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