BJP flag flutters in Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh

Debobrat Ghose

Much before the five Indian states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattis-garh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Mizoram had gone to the polls in November-December, pollsters had been predicting at least one thing with certainty – that the incumbent Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan was set for a record third term in the state Assembly. The election results announced on December 8, that anointed Shri Chouhan yet again as the ruler of the central Indian state, therefore, were no surprise at all as far as Madhya Pradesh was concerned.

A lot many bouquets have been handed to Shri Chouhan since then for achieving a laudable feat for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Several reasons have been cited for the stupendous performance of the party in the state, which won 165 seats out of a total 230, making its tally higher than the 143 in 2008 election. 

An important reason for his victory, which has unfortunately not been lauded enough in as many words on innumerable panel discussions, has been his genuine, honest connect with the grass roots, the absence of which has sent the country’s oldest party Congress hiding for cover since December 8.

Shri Chouhan’s one-on-one connect with his voters has created a mass appeal over the years in his favour, and it helped him in routing the Opposition Congress and virtually reducing it to a non-entity in MP.  

And, his image of a humble, modest and low-profile Chief Minister for more than eight years reflected in his first address after the victory, when he said, “This victory is a victory of BJP’s ideology, victory of the organisation and victory of all the party workers, who have dedicated themselves for the cause, without ever caring for their names to be known in public. I’m neither a raja nor a sadhak, but just a party worker and a sevak of BJP who has tried to do his duty with honesty.”

The huge margin with which the BJP won, even surpassing 2008 figure can only be compared with the victory gained by Uma Bharati-led BJP in 2003. But even after that Shri Chouhan displayed not an iota of pride or arrogance, and instead said, “Any ordinary party worker in my position would have won,” while thanking all – from senior citizens to mothers, sisters, nephews, nieces, etc.

Giving a jolt to the Congress, which was expecting to end its 10-year long exile under the leadership of Jyotiraditya Scindia, the BJP won 165 seats in the 230-member House, whereas the Congress managed to win only 58 seats, and others seven, including the Bahujan Samaj Party winning five seats.

Shri Chouhan who won from his traditional Budhni seat by 84,805 votes, played a master strategist by contesting from Vidisha seat as well and winning it by 16,966 votes. He played the master stroke to retain the seat in favour of the BJP as it originally belonged to former Finance Minister Raghavji, who was sacked on charges of sodomy.       

With his mass appeal and connecting to almost each and every voter of his area, veteran BJP leader and Urban Administration minister Babulal Gaur recorded a tenth consecutive victory from Govindpura by 70,644 votes by creating a record of the sorts.

Though due to Shri Chouhan’s clean and secular image, the BJP won seats in Muslim-dominated regions like Burhanpur but the Muslim-dominated Bhopal (North) seat was won by Congress heavy-weight Arif Aqueel defeating the only Muslim BJP candidate Arif Baig. “But, it can’t be denied that a considerable number of Muslim voters across MP voted in favour of BJP, as many Muslim girls from economically weaker section had been beneficiaries of Shri Chouhan’s much-lauded Kanyadaan Yojna,” observes Umesh Chandra, who has been closely analysing the state elections.

“Pro-incumbency followed by Shri Chouhan’s welfare schemes, pro-poor image, over-whelming popularity among women voters, good governance and leadership helped in increasing its winning margin and may ultimately wipe out the divided Congress in MP,” an expert said.

Mincing no words, Shri Chouhan gave a clarion call to party workers and appealed to voters that under the leadership of its Prime-Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi time had arrived to work hard to ensure the formation of a BJP-led government at the Centre in 2014. “Madhya Pradesh will ensure maximum number of MPs for this mission,” Shri Chouhan added.

(The writer is a Delhi-based journalist, who writes on various issues related Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. He can be reached at dbg@rediffmail.com)

Chhattisgarh

Dr Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh has emerged victorious by a comparatively narrow margin in a nail-biting competition. A difference of a few percentage votes here and there would have seen him sitting in opposition for this term.  That’s what makes Dr Raman Singh’s victory an event needing intricate introspection. With the sceptre of the May 25 Maoist ambush on senior Congress leaders hanging heavily over the government’s credibility, there was every likelihood of the Congress winning sympathy votes as a consequence. And the party too had not left any stone unturned to take advantage of the situation by fielding family members of the slain leaders. The Congress fielded the wives and son of their slain leaders to gain the sympathy votes, however only Devati Karma, wife of Mahendra Karma, and Umesh Patel, son of Nand Kumar Patel respectively from Dantewada and Kharsia managed to win.  

Then there was the anti-incumbency factor against quite a few sitting ministers and MLAs of the ruling BJP due to corruption charges and non-performance , which would have been a worrying factor for Dr Raman Singh’s poll strategists. Indeed, five sitting ministers lost. Two tainted ministers – Rural Development minister Hemchandra Yadav got defeated by Arun Vohra, son of Congress veteran Motilal Vohra, who had earlier faced two consecutive losses in his pocket borough. Drug and Agriculture Minister Chandra-shekhar Sahu lost to senior Congress leader Dhanendra Sahu. Home minister Nanki Ram Kanwar, Water Resources Minister Ramvichar Netam and Women & Child Welfare minister Lata Usendi from tribal dominated areas, lost due to non-performance. On the other hand, some of the ministers like Brijmohan Agrawal (Raipur), who holds the PWD portfolio, Rajesh Munat (Raipur West) of Housing and Amar Agrawal (Bilaspur) of Health and Urban Development, despite having strong allegations  levelled against them by the Opposition,  managed to win. “This was due to the weak Congress candidates and infighting within the party,” a political analyst said.

BJP succeeded in winning five out of seven seats in Raipur constituency.   “The results show that now people vote for development and political stability, like MP has proved that if good work is done, then pro-incumbency helps in winning the election,” Dr Raman Singh said.

Though the Congress gained one seat over the last 2008 election’s 38 seats, after the day-long drama it finally failed for the consecutive third time due to leadership crisis emerging after the Maoist attack at Darbha Ghati that had wiped out Congress’ top leadership. The faction-ridden Congress failed to tackle the complacency amongst some of its MLAs.

The Bastar result is significant not just for Chhattisgarh but for the entire country – where 70 per cent of polling took place for the first time. The Maoist infested belt of Bastar and the adjoining Rajnandgaon has 18 seats, out of which 15 were with the BJP in 2008, got reduced to just six this time, as Congress won 12 seats. In Rajnandgaon that also has Raman Singh’s seat, BJP lost four of the six seats. “It’s alarming for the BJP, because its loss in Dandakaranya confirms that people in this violence-hit zone want a change and not just the rice scheme of Raman Singh,” observes an expert. The voters in Naxal-hit Bijapur and Dantewada chose NOTA (None of the above) option, which was 10 per cent and 8.9 per cent respectively. 

It’s largely the ‘Raman-effect’ that helped the BJP to win the race in a photo finish, as the situation was doubtful till 4 pm.  Despite dissent within the party, Raman Singh’s popularity among the masses (if not within the party members), his populist schemes, his Vikas Yatra, aggressive campaigning in over 80 seats and his hand-picking and fielding of some candidates like municipal councillor Ashok Sahu from Kawardha against Congress stalwart Mohammed Akbar paid dividend. Finally, the ‘Chaurwala Baba won for the third term.  —Debobrat Ghose

Rajasthan submerged into saffron

BJP’s landslide victory under Vasundhara

Remaining loyal to its history, Rajasthan did not repeat the incumbent government and has topped the ruling Congress led by Shri Ashok Gehlot. What is different in this election is the margin of victory BJP has registered under the leadership of Smt Vasundhara Raje. The party has won three-forth of the seats where polling was held by breaking all the previous records. In the landslide victory, BJP secured 162 seats with massive 48 per cent of vote share. With the jump of 14 per cent vote share, the BJP broke the record of the Congress party’s performance of 1998 Assembly elections when the latter won 153 seats with a vote share of 44.95 per cent.

Congress faces super-anti-incumbency

As predicted by our special issue on elections (dated November 24, 2013), Gehlot government in Rajasthan faced the super anti-incumbency. Most of the Congresses flagship programmes like food security to cash transfer were run as pilot projects in Rajasthan. The incumbent government also tried to sell them in the last six months. Its star campaigner Rahul Gandhi started electioneering from tribal-dominated Mewar region with emotional appeal. Still, Congress faced double anti-incumbency because of bad track record for more than four years on key indicators of development, namely roads, water and electricity. Most of the Centre funding remained un-utilised and the schemes unfinished. Corruption haunted the Gehlot administration like most other Congress governments. The State Government is seen as mastermind of numerous scams, which in turn hampered governance in the state. Even close relatives of the Congress CM were allegedly involved in the mining scam. 

Sex scandals/crimes which turned Jaipur into crime capital, was another issue that went against Gehlot. Three ex-ministers of his government are in jail in the cases of sexual assaults. Besides, law and order issues and communal riots also dented the popularity of the Congress government. The national issues like rising prices too contributed to the tumbling of Congress in the State. The magnitude of Congress loss was so huge that several biggies have lost the polls. Among them are Tourism Minister Bina Kak (Sumerpur), Vidhan Sabha Speaker Deependra Singh (Srimadhopur), Leela Maderna (Osian) and Health Minister Aimadu-ddin Ahmad Khan (Tijara). 

Vasundhara rides on Modi wave

Rajasthan has clearly displayed what a credible state leadership with popular national appeal can fetch.  Vasundhara Raje after the magnificent performance of the party rightly gave credit to the Modi wave in the state. “Modi wave has played a decisive role in Rajasthan Assembly election,” Raje told media after the results in Assembly election.

From the beginning of her Suraj Sankalp Yatra, Modi effect was visible in the state.  Her track-record of development has also helped. Despite such close interest and scrutiny of the Gandhis, the BJP’s saffron is awash across the state. BJP has made huge gains in the Marwar region and in the North. The party also made strong inroads in the Mewar-Haroti area which is supposed to be Congress stronghold, and even in the eastern belt BJP has done better than last time. The force of saffron wave was so strong that even in Muslim dominated constituencies, party has secured sizable number of votes, with 2 candidates from the Muslim community winning on lotus symbol.

The keen interest of the Gandhi scion in campaigning and ticket distribution in Rajasthan has added another failure to the dynastic kitty. On the other hand, Modi’s march from Jaipur to Udaipur has made huge difference. Rajasthan has given a definite indication of what it wants in the coming General elections.

And as highlighted by Raje, BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi did act as a force in rallying support behind the party’s bid to reclaim power.

There are anti-incumbencies and then there are ‘super anti-incumbencies’- Gehlot has become the victim of the latter.

What possibly also contributed to the Congress rout in the state is that the electorate saw a better leader in Vasundhara Raje, whose five-year rule from 2003 to 2008 was remembered by many for better development track record and good governance compared to Ashok Gehlot, notwithstanding the fact that she lost power in the last elections.    —Bureau Report

Vote Share

Alliance           Voteshare (%)       Change (%)

CONG                     33                             –4     

BJP                          48                             14     

OTHERS                17                          –12     

NOTA     2                                 2  

Congress hits a new low, Delhi divided on anti-Congress alternative

BJP is Victorious but AAP steals the show

In the recently held Assembly elections, as expected in the pre-poll predictions, Delhi plunged the most surprising results. Congress has faced worst ever defeat with the tally of 8 seats. On the other hand, BJP under the leadership of Dr Harsh Vardhan turned out to be the single largest party with 32 seats. But the real hero in these elections turned out to be Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) under the leadership of an IRS officer turned social activist turned politician Arvind Kejriwal. With the divided anti-Congress votes in Delhi, no formation is in position or willing to form a government, they have taught a lesson for all the political parties. 

Strong anti-Congress sentiments

Even after emergency, when anti-Congressism was at its peak, Congress had retained 10 seats. But in 2013 Congress has hit the new low with 8 seats and mere 24.7 per cent of votes. Delhites have definitely voted against the issue of corruption, inflation, dynastic rule and all over mis-governance of the Congress in both Center and state. The oldest party lost 15.6 per cent of its vote from its 40.3 per cent of vote share. The loss of seat is of 35. In most of the constituencies, Congress was not even in contest. All the stalwarts of the party including the three times Chief Minister Ms Sheila Dikshit lost badly. This clearly suggests that Delhi voted to defeat the Congress and even the conventional vote bank of the party is also fed with the misrule. Interestingly, 4 MLAs out of 8 are Muslims.

BJP is victorious, but not good enough

BJP which was a natural alternative to the ruling Congress improved its tally by 9 seats but fell short of 4 seats for majority. The clean and sober image of Chief Ministerial candidate Dr Harsh Vardhan definitely helped the party but perhaps his projection earlier would have helped in crossing the threshold. Even the campaigning by BJPs prime ministerial candidate Shri Narendra Modi proved important for BJP in becoming the single largest formation along with Akali Dal.

BSP lost its base to AAP

Bahujan Samaj Party with 14  per cent vote share has been important third force in Delhi lost chunk of his votes (nearly 9 per cent) to AAP which is surprising. The election symbol of AAP and winnability seems to have worked against the BSP.

AAP steals the show

Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal has stolen the show in Delhi with impressive 29.7 per cent vote share and 28 seats in the debut elections. With the large portion of Congress and BSP voters, AAP has attracted most of the young voters with its anti-corruption plank. In a meticulously conducted campaign, AAP combined conventional methods of electioniring like door-to-door campaign and corner meetings with social media onslaught. The party also raised money through donations and foreign funding, through posturing it could convince the voters that elections could be fought with meager amount. The new political outfit has definitely shown to the established parties that elections can be contested on issues and ‘honesty’ still a valued currency in India.

The tangle of government formation, President’s rule look inevitable

With the hung verdict, government formation has become a difficult task in Delhi. Congress is ready to support the AAP to prevent BJP from coming to power but AAP is not willing to be part of the anti-Congress wrath. BJP being the main contender is not in the AAP option. BJP has categorically denied accepting the offer of forming the government. Immediately after the results, Shri Modi declared that BJP would not take support from any defected group. After the election of Dr Harsh Vardhan, he himself along with the state in-charge Sri Nitin Gadkari called upon the newly elected legislatures and party workers to get ready for the re-elections. In such scenario, President’s rule will be imposed in Delhi and re-elections will be held along with the General elections. In this period, the direction of national politics will decide whether Delhi remains indecisive on anti-Congress alternative or not.

—Bureau Report