An incisive analysis of Gujarat Elections, 2012—II
Dr JK Bajaj
WHILE going through the detailed analysis below, it is helpful to keep in mind the overall share of vote obtained by different parties. In 2012, BJP has got 47.9 percent of the total valid votes polled. The Indian National Congress (INC) is way behind with a vote share of 38.9 percent. Of the other parties in the fray, Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) has got 3.6 percent, Janata Dal (United), JDU, 0.6 percent and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) about 1 percent.
The BJP share is about a percentage point below its share of 49.1 percent in 2007, while the share of INC has increased by about 1 percent from 38.0 percent of 2007. NCP had got the same about 1 percent in 2007. The impact on the vote share of BJP is only a quarter of what the GPP has taken away.
Share of ST and SC Seats
Of the 182 seats in Assembly, 27 seats are reserved for the scheduled tribes (ST) and 13 for the scheduled castes (SC). Of the ST seats, BJP has won only 10; of the remaining 17, 16 have gone to INC and 1 to JDU. In 2007, of the 26 ST seats, BJP had won 11, INC 14 and JDU 1. Of the 13 SC seats, BJP has won 10 and INC 3. The tally of these seats in 2007 was, 11 for BJP and 2 for INC.
Distribution of low margin seats
In 2012 elections, 36 seats have been decided by margins of less than 5,000. Of these, BJP has won only 13, while INC has got 21 and GPP and NCP have each got 1 seat. Among these 36, 4 seats have been decided by margins of less than 1000 and, of these,INC has won 3 and BJP only 1.
In 2007, 9 seats had been decided by margins of less than 1000, but these were nearly equally divided between the two parties, with the BJP winning 4, INC 4 and NCP 1. Another 39 seats in that election had been decided by margins between 1000 and 5000. Of these, BJP had won 20 and INC 19. In the current elections, BJP has clearly and unusually lost disproportionately in the seats that have been decided by narrow margins. This does indicate lack of enthusiasm on the part of at least some of the committed workers.
Having looked at the factors that have had some impact on the state as a whole, let us turn to detailed region and sub-region wise analysis of the election results.
Analysis of Region-wise Results
Kachchh (BJP 5, INC 1)
Of the 6 constituencies in Kachchh, BJP has got 5 and INC 1. The BJP and INC had got the same number of seats in 2007 also. The margin of victory for INC is less than 8 thousand, while GPP has garnered nearly 20 thousand votes. Mandvi is the other constituency in this district where GPP has got a substantial vote of nearly 13 thousand; but that seat has been won by BJP with a margin of more than 8 thousand.
In 2007 elections, INC had won Rapar by a margin of less than 6 thousand; in this election, this seat has been won by BJP by a margin of about 9 thousand. Of the votes polled in 2012, BJP got 45.4 percent, INC about 40 percent and GPP another 5 percent. In the absence of GPP in the fray, BJP would have won all 6 seats. Gandhidham in Kachch is a reserved SC seat; the seat has been won by BJP by a margin of above 21 thousand.
North Gujarat (BJP 13, INC 14)
In this region, comprising of Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan and Sabarkantha districts, adjoining south Rajasthan, BJP has lost heavily compared to its showing in the previous elections of 2007. Of the 29 constituencies of the region in 2007, BJP had won 23. After delimitation, number of seats in the region has come down to 27. Of these, BJP has managed to win only 13, suffering a loss of as many as 10 seats compared to its previous tally.
BJP has done particularly badly in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha, the two districts adjoining south Rajasthan. In Banaskantha, it had won 7 of the 8 seats in 2007; in 2012, it has won only 4 of the 9 seats that the district now has. Congress has won the remaining 5, 4 more than its tally of 1 in 2007. In Sabarkantha, BJP had won 5 of the 8 seats in 2007; in 2012, it has managed to win only 1 of the 7 seats.
Of the total votes polled in the region in 2012, BJP has got 43 percent; the share of INC is 44 percent. NCP, which contested from 2 seats in the region, has got a substantial vote share of 1.8 percent. The showing of NCP in Vav of Banaskantha, has been particularly good, where it polled more than 30 thousand votes, ensuring the loss of that seat for INC. Vav was won by the BJP with a margin of about 12 thousand.
GPP, which had put up candidates in all seats, has obtained a vote share of 1.35 percent in the region. But its showing in the region has been significant only in two constituencies, Becharaji of Mahesana and Kankrej of Banaskantha. GPP polled nearly 14 thousand votes in Becharaji; the seat has in any case been won by BJP, though with a thin margin of about 6.5 thousand. In Kankrej, GPP polled about 7.5 thousand votes; the seat has been lost by BJP by just 600 votes.
The region has 3 ST seats, all of which have gone to INC. In 2007, the only ST seat in the region, Khedbrahma of Sabarkantha, was won by the INC with a considerable margin of nearly 26 thousand votes. In 2012, INC has won the seat by a massive margin of 50 thousand. This is the largest margin that INC has registered in this election; the second largest margin in favour of INC has come from another ST seat, Jhalod of the neighbouring Dahod district.
Of the 3 SC seats in the region, two have been one by INC and 1 by BJP. In 2007, all 3 SC seats in the region had gone in favour of BJP. Of these, Kadi in Mahesana has been lost by BJP with a margin of only 1,217; GPP in this seat has polled 1,769 votes. North Gujarat region, where the BJP has fared so poorly, is also among the least urbanised in the state with an urbanisation ratio of 17.6 percent compared to the state average of 42.6 percent as per the provisional figures of Census 2011. Urbanisation ratio of Banaskantha and Sabarkantha is even lower at 13.3 and 14.5 percent, respectively. Sabarkantha also has substantial ST presence of 20.2 percent.
Central Gujarat (BJP 45, INC 25, Others 3) Central Gujarat, as it is usually defined, is a vast region comprising Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahals, Dahod, Vadodara, Bharuch and Narmada districts; and, a total of 73 seats. In this region, BJP has done well in the current elections, gaining 9 seats compared to its showing in 2007.
IN 2007, BJP had won 36 of the 73 seats in the region and 32 went in favour of INC. Of the remaining 2 went to NCP, 1 to JDU and 2 to Independents. In the current elections, BJP has won 45 seats; INC has got only 25. Of the remaining 3, 1 has gone to NCP and 1 to JDU.
Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP has got 49.8 percent; INC has obtained about 39 percent, GPP about 2 percent, NCP and JDU about 1 percent each.
This region, where BJP has gained 9 seats more than its 2007 total, has an urbanization ratio of 46.2 percent compared to the state average of 42.6. Parts of this region are among the most urbanised in the state and there BJP has done even better.
There are considerable variations across different parts of this region; it is instructive to look at them separately.
Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar (BJP 19, INC 7)
These two districts, which form the capital region of Gujarat, have 26 seats between them. The number of seats in this sub-region has increased by 3 after delimitation. Of the 23 seats in 2007, BJP had won 15, INC 7 and one seat had gone in favour of an Independent. Of 26 seats in the current election, BJP has won 19 and INC 7. The BJP has thus gained 4 seats from this region alone. Of the total votes polled in the sub-region, BJP has obtained 57 percent, while INC has got only 36 percent. Of the 7 seats that INC has won in this region, 4 have been decided with narrow margins. The margin in favour of INC in Kalol of Gandhinagar is only 343 and in Dehgam, it is 2,297. Sanand and Dariapur of Ahmedabad have also been won by INC with low margins of 4,148 and 2,621, respectively. BJP, on the other hand, has registered its highest margins in this region. It has won Ghatlodia with a margin of more than a lakh and Maninagar by more than 86 thousand. However, the party has also won a couple of seats, Bapunagar of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar North, by narrow margins of less than 5,000. GPP had put up candidates in many constituencies in this region, but its presence has not been of much significance anywhere, except perhaps in Kalol, where the 543 votes that it has polled are more than the margin of defeat for BJP.
This sub-region, which has voted so overwhelmingly for the BJP, is highly urbanised. The ratio of urbanisation for Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad belt is 77.5 percent. There are no ST seats in these two districts. There are 2 seats reserved for the scheduled castes, both in Ahmedabad district. Of these, Asarwa has gone to BJP and Danilimda to INC.
Anand-Kheda (BJP 4, INC 9, NCP 1)
Indian National Congress has historically deep roots in this sub-region of Central Gujarat. Of the 17 seats in the region in 2007, BJP had won only 6 seats, while INC got 10 and NCP 1. After delimitation, number of seats in the sub-region has come down to 14. Of these, BJP has won 4, INC 9 and NCP 1. Interestingly, the winning candidate of the NCP remains the same as in 2007; though his old constituency of Sarsa no more exists, and he contested from Umreth. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP has got 43.6 percent and INC 44.3 percent. NCP, which contested 2 seats one of which it has won, has got 3.2 percent. GPP has got 1.7 percent of the vote. Its presence, however, has not been insignificant, because margins of victory are very narrow for several seats in this sub-region. GPP has clocked a respectable tally only in Mehmedabad of Kheda, where it has obtained 11,662 votes; BJP has lost this seat by only 4,181 votes. In 2007, BJP had won theseat by 11.5 thousand votes. But, even the meagre GPP tally of 642 in Sojitra of Anand has proved decisive; BJP has lost this seat by only 162 votes. GPP has certainly been responsible for the loss of these two seats. Margins are narrow in Umreth and Anand also; the former has been won by NCP, the latter by BJP.
This region has no ST or SC seat. Urban ratio of the region is 26.4 percent. This makes it among the less urbanised parts of the state.
Comments