Presenting what the media called a ?flat? interim budget for the year 2009-10, the External Affairs Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee rightly paid tributes to farmers of India as the ?real heroes? of India'ssuccess story since it were they who with hard work had ensured food security for the country.
He is certainly right in describing farmers as the real heroes of India, but his subsequent statement in the same paragraph that ?production of foodgrains increased by about ten million tones (mt.) each year to reach an all time high of 230 million tonnes in 2007-08, is erroneous. The increase from 2003-04, the last year of the NDA regime to that in 2008-09, the last year of the UPA regime, does not come to ten mt. per year. Here are the statistics, which can be verified from the Economic Survey and other official documents.
Production in 03-04 was 213.16 mt. which was all time high at that time. The very next year and the first year of the UPA rule, 04-05, production had actually gone down by as much as 14.80 mt to a level of 198.36 mt. It was in 2005-06 that recovery was possible to harvest 9.77 mt more to take the figure to 208.59 mt.
There was another rise of 8.69 mt. in 06-07 to take the final figure for the year to 217.28 mt. In 2007-08, the production rose to 227.32 mt. an increase of 10.04 mt. the only year during the five year period when production rose by ten mt. in a single year. However, the final figure for the next year, 2008-09 is only 230.78 mt. an increase over the figure of 07-08 by only 3.46 mt.
What is worse, the second advance estimate for the year 2009-2010, published on February 13, 2009, is only 227.88 mt., a decline of about of three million tones from the final figures of 08-09,which is matter of concern in the current economic melt-down world
If one correlates the south west monsoon rainfall to the production figures of foodgrains in the country, it will become evident that the south-west monsoon plays a decisive role in foodgrains production in India. The poor show of agriculture in 2002-03 which had seen the decline of production of foodgrains from 212.85 mt. in 2001-02 to 174.77 mt. in 2002-03 was caused by the severe drought the country had suffered in 2002 when the rainfall was only 81 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).The next year, rainfall went up to 102 per cent of the LPA and the country saw a record production
However, the very next year and the first year of the UPA regime saw the monsoon plummeting down to 87 per cent of the LPA and production decline by almost 15 mt. In the next two years the monsoon was 99 per cent of the LPA and things went normal. In 2007, the south west monsoon recorded 105 per cent of the LPA and the foodgrains production rose to 230.78 mt.
There are other factors too that affect production of foodgrains production. India still ranks very low in the consumption of chemical fertilizers which averages about 1,110 kilogram per hectare. Even Bangladesh consumes more per hectare. Besides, there is no effective extension mechanism in the country which can guide farmers in proper utilisation of fertilisers. Since urea, which provides nitrogen to the crops, is comparatively cheaper than phosphorous and potash, farmers apply more urea than the other major plant nutrients. This improper use of plant nutrients have a negative impact on production, but there are no extension workers to advice farmers about proper utilisation of fertilisers. There is an organisation called the ATMA (Agriculture Technology Management Authority) which is supposed to perform these duties.
Since Punjab, Haryana and western UP have facilities for assured irrigation, these regions perform very well in agriculture. Rain fed agriculture is actually a game of chance and unless India increases the area under assured irrigation, its agriculture future cannot be said to be bright.
It is absolutely necessary to ensure that politics and politicians do not affect agriculture for garnering of votes. Pranab Babu'sstatement in his speech presenting the country'sinterim budget was obviously an effort to politicise agriculture.
Let no other politicians take a cue from this.
