Bangladesh has been a fragile and politically disintegrated landscape since August 2024 when the elected regime of Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power in a violent student uprising. The interim government in Dhaka under the leadership of its Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus is unable to fully stabilize the country which is still embroiled in violent protests, lockdowns thus leading to massive disruption of the political and economic ecosystem of the country.
With the regime transition in Dhaka, the bilateral relations with New Delhi have also been under drastic strain. With the spiking Bangladesh-Pakistan nexus and repeated illicit target of the Yunus administration towards the Northeast of India, there is further derailment of diplomatic ties thus raising strategic and security concerns in the borders of India. In the latest row, the International Crimes Tribunal(ICT) of Dhaka has sentenced the deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death sentence over her alleged ‘crimes against humanity’.
Hasina has been imposed with two distinct death sentences. One is related to unleashing fire on six unarmed protestors in Dhaka leading to their death. The other case is related to the alleged killing of six student demonstrators in Ashulia on August 5. This capital punishment has stimulated the Yunus administration in Dhaka to send a fresh request to New Delhi to extradite Sheikh Hasina back to Bangladesh. A note verbale has been rendered to the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi via the Bangladesh High Commission.
Here intrudes an important question. Will New Delhi extradite Sheikh Hasina? Will India cede to the demands of Dhaka. India and Bangladesh indeed have an extradition treaty that mandates the transfer of the alleged culprits through mutually agreed diplomatic channels. However, there are certain legal angles pertaining in the treaty which gives a diplomatic firewall to India against extraditing Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh.
The extradition treaty inked between India and Bangladesh has aspects that addresses the political sensitivities.
- The pact claims that the extradition cannot proceed if the accused is likely to face any unfair or biased persecution and trial in the home country.
- If the charges or the verdict imposed seems to be politically motivated then India can deny the extradition request.
- Extradition request can also be denied of there is any undue risk of capital punishment
These elements of the extradition treaty act as a diplomatic firewall to India, to deny the latest extradition request and the political developments witnessed in Bangladesh since August 2024, indeed stimulates doubts regarding the true intentions of the interim administration. The apprehensions towards the interim government are as follows:
- Sudden and violent student protests
- Derailing economic progress and stability of the country, which was hitherto one of the fastest emerging economies of Asia under the rule of Sheikh Hasina
- Rift between the interim Yunus administration and Bangladesh military
- Spiking allegations on the interim government regarding power abuse and massive corruption
- Repeated violent protests and disintegrated domestic polity
- Banning of the Awami League to contest from the 2026 general elections, the political party of Sheikh Hasina and creating monopoly under the Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP)
- Repeated attack on India and its sovereignty
- Increasing assault on the minority Hindu community in Bangladesh and the raise of extremist Islamic elements
- Increasing Pakistan-Bangladesh nexus, is of utmost and particular concern to India
This chaotic landscape of Bangladesh is fueling instability and security crisis in larger South Asia, particularly affecting India. This state of Dhaka raises apprehensions regarding the political ambitions behind the death sentence imposed on Sheikh Hasina and the following extradition request to India. Given these strategic concerns, India can deny the request to deport Hasina back to Bangladesh and currently India is considering the legal aspects surrounding the suit.
“The request is being examined as part of an ongoing judicial and internal legal process. We remain committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh including peace, democracy, inclusion and stability in that country and will continue to engage constructively in this regard with all stakeholders”, asserted the Ministry of External Affairs in its statement. Given the complexity and geopolitical sensitivity of the case, it is also said that New Delhi will not reply to the extradition request of Dhaka anytime soon and will take extensive time to examine the request, its legal aspects and the larger geopolitical or strategic implications in the long-run.
India will interrogate the matter in a holistic way before exclaiming any reply. The terms of the bilateral extradition treaty, ethos of the Indian legal order and judicial system and the larger global human rights credentials will be considered by India. Many geopolitical analysts and strategic experts also opine that if India hands over Sheikh Hasina to the interim administration of Bangladesh it will be a diplomatic defeat. It will be a scenario of conceding to the demands of the interim government in Dhaka when they are actually busy promoting anti-India rhetoric by forming a nexus with Pakistan, China etc., which has deeper security concerns for India in the form of terror infiltarion and illegal migration.
Accepting the demands of Bangladesh can also be a setback for the diplomatic and strategic firmness of India in its neighbourhood. This might give rise to other irrational demands by other countries. Handing over Sheikh Hasina will be an act of fueling the hegemonic and monopolistic ambitions of the interim government, which is against the legitimate interests of India that collapses the diplomatic firewall that India has to ensure and protect for its national security, says the geopolitical experts.
In an era, where the geopolitical chessboard is increasingly unpredictable, India cannot take chances and has to make an extremely vigilant move that upholds the sovereignty, territorial integrity, national security and strategic autonomy of India. New Delhi is currently making its geopolitical calculations in this backdrop.
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