His Holiness the Dalai Lama celebrated his 90th birthday on July 6. The main birthday celebration was held at Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, the headquarters of the Central Tibetan Administration. The spiritual leader of the Tibetans has lived in exile in India since the year 1959. A large number of prominent world leaders greeted the Dalai Lama including India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At his advanced age, the obvious topic for discussion has been the succession plan of the 14th Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama revealed that his successor will be selected as per procedure, and no-one has any authority to interfere in the matter. He obviously was referring to the Chinese assertion that the next Dalai Lama would be selected by them.
Tibet is often called the “roof of the world” and it is a high-altitude plateau and mountain region with an average height of 14,000 feet. Located to the south west of China, this massive area of 2,500, 000 square km is bordered by Nepal, India and Bhutan to its south. Before 1950, it was a remote area and it was an autonomous region. China gained independence on 1 October 1949 and immediately staked its claim over Tibet citing ancient linkage with the region. China forcefully annexed Tibet in 1951 and since then it has been under the administration of People’s Republic of China (PRC). After the Tibetan uprising in 1959, the spiritual leader of Tibetans had to fled to India and HH Dalai Lama established a Tibetan government in exile in Mussoorie on 29 April 1959 and thereafter it shifted to Dharamshala in 1960. Though India recognised Tibet to be part of China in 1954 itself, the existence of government in exile in India has not been taken kindly by it.
The One China Principle of China maintains that PRC and the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has sole legitimacy over Tibet, Hongkong and Taiwan. On the other hand, One China Policy of US accepts Tibet and Hongkong to be under the PRC and the US officially has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But the US has supported the call for genuine autonomy for the Tibetans from the autocratic China. In pursuance of this stated policy, the US Congress passed the ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ in June 24 to enhance US support for Tibet and promote dialogue between China and Dalai Lama. As expected, China has reacted very strongly and has asked the US to shelve the bill.
Given the advanced age of HH Dalai Lama and at times his failing health, the key issue would be his 15th successor to the Tibetan heritage. China certainly would like to have a successor attuned to their Communist thought process. The US has said that it would not accept a Beijing appointed Dalai Lama and has backed succession based on the past traditions. India would have to tread carefully here. One thing is sure. China is going to react very strongly to the succession plan of the Dalai Lama, particularly in Tibet.
The critical decision from the foreign policy perspective would be India’s stance on continuing with the Tibetan government in exile functioning from India. While we may continue to support the just rights of the around one lakh Tibetans living in India, the US should be offering the Tibetans more active support. India has already supported their cause for more than 65 years. Under the Biden administration, the US was more committed to the Tibetan cause, as evident from their much touted Reshape Tibet Bill/Act. One is not so sure of the Trump 2.0 administration. Based on how the 15th Dalai Lama is enshrined, India’s foreign policy must have the options ready. One obvious option is to settle border dispute with China and their claim over Arunachal Pradesh.
China refers to Arunachal Pradesh as Southern Tibet and calls it ‘Zangan’. China has often indulged in renaming exercise in Arunachal Pradesh to stake their claim over this Indian state. Such renaming exercise in Arunachal Pradesh have been done by China in the years 2017, 2021,202 and 2024. The last renaming exercise took place in May 2025. Located in the India’s Northeast, Arunachal Pradesh is the largest state in terms of area of the seven sisters which make the Northeast Region (NER) and the state has huge strategic importance. Earlier it formed part of the Northeast Frontier Agency (NEFA) and it became a full-fledged state in February 1987. It borders Bhutan in the west, Myanmar in the east and states of Assam and Nagaland to its south. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) that demarcates interim boundary between India and China can be favourably settled once China gives up the claim over Arunachal Pradesh.
To the dismay of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Tibet continues to believe in their spiritual leader the 14th Dalai Lama. Chinese administration under President Xi Jinping since the year 2013 has been extra aggressive to obliterate all reference to the Dalai Lama amongst the Tibetan people. Lakhs of young Tibetan children have been forced to study communist model of education, in the hope that the new generation of Tibetans lose reverence for the present Dalai Lama. China believes that their own appointed 15th Dalai Lama would ensure complete integration and loyalty of the Tibetan society with the CCP.
India has correctly distanced itself from the succession plan of Dalai Lama. MEA spokesperson said that “India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion.” Notwithstanding India distancing from the succession controversy, China is unlikely to change its stance on India’s role in Tibet. China views Tibetan government in exile as an interference by India in its internal affairs. China is likely to continue the bizarre exercise of renaming places in Arunachal Pradesh. Therefore, India perforce has to negotiate with China from a position of strength.
In all likelihood, the world is going to see two Dalai Lamas, one appointed by the existing incumbent as per the traditions and the other nominated by China. It is unlikely that the Dalai Lama appointed by China is going to find ready acceptance by the Tibetan people. India unwittingly may get trapped in unnecessary succession controversy. At that point of time, the stance of the US becomes important. If the US under President Trump sides with China purely for commercial interests, then India may have to take the next step which is in its best national interest. India may have to be militarily prepared to confront any aggression from China in Arunachal Pradesh in case the succession issue is not settled amicably.
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