Just two years after the Congress party secured a significant mandate in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, the political landscape in the state has undergone a dramatic shift. Discontent is rising across communities and regions, with the Congress facing a steep decline in public confidence and the BJP witnessing a resurgence in support. A recent People’s Pulse–Kodemo survey has starkly highlighted this shift, revealing deep-seated dissatisfaction with the Congress-led administration.
From mandate to misgovernance: Congress under fire
Comparing current voter sentiments with the 2023 election results reveals a striking reversal. The survey suggests that if elections were held today, the BJP’s seat tally could potentially double. This reversal is being attributed to what citizens call “two wasted years” under Congress rule—marked by price hikes, unfulfilled promises, and administrative paralysis. The so-called “grace period” that Congress enjoyed after the election appears to have ended, with public patience wearing dangerously thin.
Failures of ‘guarantee schemes’ and economic mismanagement
The Congress government’s much-touted pre-election guarantees—such as Gruha Lakshmi, Yuva Nidhi, and Shakti—are now being dismissed by citizens as mere gimmicks. Far from being universal, these welfare schemes have been either poorly implemented or selectively delivered. Moreover, their fiscal burden has reportedly damaged the state’s economy, leading to increased inflation in basic commodities such as electricity, milk, and essential groceries. The urban middle class and rural working poor, once hopeful, now feel betrayed by what they see as Congress’s failed populism.
Exodus of core voters: Disillusioned youth and disenchanted farmers
One of the most concerning trends for Congress is the erosion of its voter base among young people and farmers. Over 56 per cent of voters aged 18–25 now support the BJP, citing jobs, stability, and development—not freebies—as their priorities. Even in rural Karnataka, once considered a Congress stronghold, support for the BJP has surged past 52 per cent, exposing the myth that the BJP is an urban-centric force.
The government’s inability to sustain schemes like PM-Kisan and Vidya Nidhi—both discontinued or diluted by Congress—has led to severe farmer backlash, further intensified by reports of increased farm suicides and economic stress.
A collapse of trust: Communities that once stood with Congress now lean toward BJP
The data reveals a collapse of support for Congress across key communities. Traditional support bases, such as the Kurubas (Siddaramaiah’s community) and Vokkaligas (DK Shivakumar’s base), are shifting toward the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys unprecedented cross-community support: over 70 per cent among Lingayats, Valmikis, Marathas, and Nayakas, and a notable 58 per cent even among Kurubas.
Among Dalits, particularly Madigas and SC-Ed subgroups, there has been a 35–40 per cent shift toward the BJP—indicating discontent with Congress’s failure to fulfil internal reservation promises and a belief that its actions were politically opportunistic rather than rooted in genuine commitment.
The caste census backlash and anti-Congress sentiment
Congress’s caste-based social engineering appears to have backfired. The leaked data from a controversial caste census triggered outrage, with over 75 per cent of surveyed citizens reportedly viewing the findings as non-representative and divisive. Far from consolidating its AHINDA coalition, Congress has alienated multiple subgroups, which now see its policies as tools of appeasement rather than instruments of justice.
The Modi factor: An unstoppable force in Karnataka
Perhaps the most striking finding is the overwhelming popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Not only is he the first choice for 73.9 per cent of BJP supporters, but a surprising 37.8 per cent of Congress voters also prefer him over Rahul Gandhi or Mallikarjun Kharge. Modi’s pan-caste appeal continues to grow, cutting across social and economic divides and undermining the Congress’s traditional vote banks.
In sharp contrast, Rahul Gandhi fails to garner support above 19 per cent in any significant voter subgroup, and Kharge’s influence appears limited, even within his native SC communities.
From professionals to pensioners: Congress losing touch
Even among educated professionals and postgraduates, the BJP enjoys 60.4 per cent support, a clear indicator of its appeal among aspirational and informed voters. Farmers, self-employed workers, and even teachers are gradually turning away from Congress, citing poor governance and declining public services.
Notably, elderly pensioners and homemakers—those who are supposed to benefit from welfare schemes—now complain of spiralling costs and broken promises. Congress’s inability to stabilize household budgets has turned these once-silent groups into vocal critics.
