There has been a talk of regime change in Iran in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Initially, Israel stated that change of the existing regime in Iran is one of the main objectives of their military campaign against Iran. After Iran retaliated against Israel and managed to cause sufficient destruction in Israel, particularly in Tel Aviv and Haifa, that Israel changed its stance and said that change of regime is one of the desirable outcomes. Even USA talked of change in the regime in Iran for the good of the Middle East region but later they too retracted their statement.
Iran is an Islamic Republic, established in the year 1979 after the revolution that overthrew the monarchy. It is a theocratic state where Islamic law or Sharia plays a central role in governance. The country is ruled by a Supreme Leader in Ali Khamenei. In essence, Iran is an autocracy where Human Rights are suppressed, women face many restrictions and there is no free media. Any opposition to the ruling regime is met with death penalty or life sentence. The Iranian government has 1,25,000 strong Islamic Revolutionary Guards, which are mandated to crush any rebellion and interference with the regime.
As the events of the last two weeks has proved, the regime change in autocratic nations is never easy. Even though the people are oppressed and have to bear with huge difficulties, not much hope is generated, even when the world opinion may support them. It is similar to the situation in North Korea, where no one is even contemplating a regime change. North Korea is a totalitarian state with absolute dictatorship of the Kim family for the last seven decades. It is one of the poorest countries in the world, where the Army gets major share of revenue. It is a nuclear weapon state and has long range missile capability. So, regime change in autocratic states is never easy.
Nearer home, China is ruled by a single party Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which has total monopoly over power. There is no democracy in a country of 1.4 billion people. When we Indians complain that how China has moved ahead of India economically, we must remember that Chinese dispensation had a free hand in implementing what they wanted, with no regard to Human Rights and freedom of expression. Our western neighbour Pakistan is also a pseudo democracy where the Pakistan Army and the Army Chief rules the country through a proxy Prime Minister. After Army Chief Asim Munir has put Pakistan in an embarrassing situation by towing the American line against Iran, there are murmurs in the country. But any change in the power structure in Pakistan appears bleak as of now. The state of near anarchy in Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina regime is well known. That also shows that our neighbourhood does not have much democracy and India as a nation has to deal with autocratic leadership of these countries.
Are genuine democracies immune to a regime change these days? The evidence suggests that serious attempts are made by the big powers and the Deep State to destabilise the legitimate democratic governments. Foreign Electoral Interventions (FEI) are attempted by backing a preferred party in a targeted country, carrying out disinformation campaign and through polarisation techniques. The two largest democracies of the world, that is India and USA, have been victims of FEI. It is very difficult to prove the direct involvement of such inimical agencies as they rely on the supportive network of the targeted country. Therefore, a democracy is also susceptible to a regime change through indirect means. Therefore, the electorate of a genuine democracy like India have to remain conscious of such false narratives while exercising their franchise.
Indian democracy also faced a bleak future when Emergency was imposed on June 25, 1975. This 21-month period till March 21, 1977 remains the darkest chapter in India’s glorious democracy. The state of emergency empowered Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to rule by decree, cancel elections, suspend civil liberties and censor the press. More than 100, 000 political opponents, journalists and dissenters were imprisoned during this period. A lot of atrocities also took place against the hapless citizens. Thus, emergency in India too can be called a type of regime change by political coercion.
One of the strongest pillars of democracy in India has been its apolitical armed forces. When you compare around our neighbourhood or the region, very few armies have continued to function under the civilian rule. Indian armed forces are a shining example which has executed every constitutional role, under every democratically elected government of India. Therefore, when Prime Minister Modi gave full freedom to the armed forces to avenge Pahalgam terror attack of 22 April, our forces exhibited controlled aggression against Pakistan with precision strikes during Operation Sindoor. Even under provocation, Indian armed forces refrained from targeting the civilian population of Pakistan. Pakistan capitulated within four days and the Indian armed forces further raised the esteem of a democratic India.
More than 65% of India’s population is below 35 years of age. The declaration of Emergency 50 years ago means that at least 75% of Indian population has not experienced the horrors of a full-fledged dictatorship. In this context, it is important for a vast majority of our population to be sensitised on ‘Samvidhan Hatya Diwas’. Today India can boast of most vibrant democracy in the world, from the Panchayat to Parliament level. Today, India is recognised as the beacon of hope for democracy. We Indians are indeed blessed to enjoy the fruits of democracy. On this day, all the citizens should take the pledge to uphold the constitutional values, protect fundamental rights and follow the fundamental duties to Make India Great Again (MAGA). Jai Bharat!
