The current Panchayat elections in Assam were being seen as the semi-final to the Assam Assembly elections which are scheduled to be held next year. In the Panchayat elections, once again, the public has given its support and blessings to the BJP and its other allies like Asom Gana Parishad and others. The BJP’s tsunami has swept the Opposition parties like the Congress Party, Badruddin Ajmal’s the All-India United Democratic Front and others.
The BJP had performed splendidly not only in its strongholds but also in areas construed as weak seats for the party, which is the special outcome of the panchayat’s elections. Not only that, but the BJP also surprised its opponents and the experts by its splendid performance in Muslim dominated areas. By such performance, the Chief Minister of Assam has set a target of winning 95 seats in the forthcoming Assembly elections.
Many new political trends have surfaced during the Panchayat elections. The Congress Party has failed to win even a single Zilla Parishad seat in the parliamentary constituency of the party’s Deputy Leader in Lok Sabha and Jorhat MP Gaurav Gogoi. This is enough to demonstrate that the vote of the Congress Party has now become negligible. The Congress party vote share is due to its candidates and leaders. The Congress party has only to showcase the seats won by the party only in some Muslim-dominated areas. In the overall performance the Congress party is also seen lagging behind the BJP’s ally the Assam Gana Parishad.
On the political front Assam has a special feature that is also called as the gateway to the northeastern States. The party which forms the government in Assam also gets acceptability in other States too. The BJP had no relevance in Assam and in the entire northeast region at one point of time. But the BJP has spread itself by leaps and bounds after 2014 in NE States like the entire country. As of now the party has Chief Ministers in three states of the Northeast, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and Assam besides in some other States in alliance with other parties.
Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in five States in 2026. These States are Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. Just before the Assembly elections in Assam such a bad performance by the main Opposition party the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s the All-India United Democratic Front in the Panchayat elections is a big setback which is tough for the parties to recover before the Assembly elections. It was expected that the Congress and the AIUDF may forge alliance in forthcoming Assembly election during the Samaguri Assembly by-poll vacated by Rakibul Hussain. The AIUDF unilaterally extended support to Rakibul Hussain’s son during the by-poll. But after the results of the Panchayat elections, now Ajmal’s party will also try to settle the Congress party on fewer seats. Other allies of Congress will also make similar efforts. But the Congress party has an undeclared policy to even face defeat rather than giving seats to its allies. The Congress party’s unstated policy is not to give space to its allies to grow.
The journey of the BJP in Assam and other States of the Northeast has been very challenging. The BJP could not even open its account in the 1985 Assam Assembly elections. But in the 2016 Assembly elections, the BJP, along with its allies, contested on just 89 seats and won 60 seats, falling just 4 seats short of a clear majority to form the government. There seems to be almost no anti-incumbency wave against the BJP governments. Again, in the 2021 Assembly elections the BJP contested on 93 seats and won 60 seats. It is also important in the Assam assembly elections that BJP, which won only five seats in 2011, won 60 seats in 2016, adding 55 more seats in its 2011 kitty. The BJP has succeeded in making a long-term place in the hearts of the people through its public welfare measures such as development in infrastructure and other public oriented services.
While on the other hand Assam has been a stronghold for the Congress party since the first election of 1952. In the 13 Assembly elections held in Assam before 2016, the Congress party succeeded in forming a government with a clear majority on 10 times. Such electoral performance of the Congress party was seen in very few States. But after the rise of the BJP in 2014, the Congress party has been marginalised in Assam and other states of the Northeast.
Muslim voters are very important in Assam. Like States of West Bengal, Keral and UT of Jammu and Kashmir. As per the estimates in Assam the population of Muslims is 34.22 per cent. As per survey reports and results on most Muslim dominated seats the Muslims do not vote for the BJP. But despite this perception the strong performance of the BJP in three consecutive Lok Sabhas in Assam and forming the government in the State twice in succession is a big achievement for the BJP.
A big change in the voting behaviour of Muslims in Assam has been witnessed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the Muslim-dominated Dhubri Lok Sabha seat, Rakibul Hussain of the Congress Party defeated Badruddin Ajmal by the highest margin in the country of more than one million votes. The victory margin of Rakibul Hussain was more than one-third of the Congress Party’s MPs. This has a clear indication that Muslims have now voted for the Congress Party again by sidelining the All-India United Democratic Front.
At the same time, Muslims unanimously voted for the Congress Party by sidelining a big leader like Ajmal shows that Muslim votes are not divided. Even though AIUDF contested three Lok Sabha seats, it failed to gain a lead in even one of the 25 Assembly seats which fall within these LS seats. This clearly shows that Muslim voters always vote for a particular party in the entire State. Muslims voting preference changes as per the State. Muslims prefer the party within the State which is more suitable to defeat the BJP.
Keep this pattern in mind in West Bengal, Muslim voters who once used to vote for the Communist parties are now completely voting for Mamata Banerjee’s the All India Trinamool Congress. In Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Muslim voters who used to vote for the Congress till 1990 are now voting for the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Party respectively. Whereas in Kerala, Muslim voters still vote for the Congress Party and its ally the Indian Union Muslim League. In J&K, Muslim voters are inclined towards local parties the National Conference, the PDP and now some Independents. On the lines of Lok Sabha elections, the bad defeat of Badruddin Ajmal’s party All India United Democratic Front and the victory of Congress in his stronghold Dhubri in the Panchayat elections proves that Muslim voters unanimously vote for a particular party.
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