Bangladesh witnessed the formation of a new party. The party led by the students whose protests eventually led to the downfall of Sheikh Hasina has been named the National Citizens Party (NCP).
On the dais were familiar faces who had taken part in the Monsoon Revolution which led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. The students then demanded that Muhammad Yunus be made the caretaker of the country until elections are held.
The NCP has the blessings of Muhammad Yunus, but it is unclear as to what role he would play if at all the new party comes to power. One thing however is clear and that is Yunus wants to be at the episcopal-centre. He is aware that if a BNP or Awami League comes to power, he would have no role to play in any future government.
The new party looks good on paper and the students have been making all the right noises. However what they have forgotten is that since the ouster of Hasina, Bangladesh has quickly moved towards becoming a radical Islamic nation. Even as the party formation was announced the fault lines can already be seen. The Jamaat-e-Islami which has a new lease of life in Bangladesh courtesy the ISI is at logger heads with the new political party.
Fault lines exposed
The path to the formation of the new party has not been exactly a smooth one. There has been plenty of infighting between the non-Shibir and former Shibir factions, The Islamic Chhatra Shibir is the students’ wing of the Jamaat.
The tensions were visible when two of the Shiner’s former Dhaka University unit presidents, Ali Ahsan Junayed and Safe Salman Rifat were sidelined during the launch of the NCP.
Junayed had demanded one of the top post in the new party, but was denied. These developments are not good for the new party, which has promised to build a new Bangladesh, which is not governed by dynasty politics.
The tensions between the NCP and Jamaat has prompted the latter to launch a new political party which would be led by students. Junayed and Rifat are likely to lead this party. While the Jamaat led new party may not score big in the elections, it could still be an irritant for the NCP.
While it is interesting to see that students are taking the lead to run the country, in the long run the latest developments are bad news for Bangladesh. If the Jamaat led Shibir floats a political outfit, the country can expect violence. The Jamaat and Shibir are two violent outfits which believes in the imposition of the Shaira law. Further, it has the complete backing of the ISI, which is now a big player in Bangladesh following Hasina’s ouster.
The NCP while being formed made it clear that it is neither pro-India or pro-Pakistan. This could be a trigger point for the ISI to needle the Shibir to indulge in violence and weaken the NCP.
Can the NCP make it
On paper it appears as though everything is going for the NCP. It is the same set of students who led the protest to oust Sheikh Hasina. They promised that this was necessary in the interest of the country.
Further it was the same students who insisted that Yunus be put in charge of the country. Since his taking over, Bangladesh has only gone from bad to worse. There has been unending violence, the relations between the government and army has soured and ties with the two mainstream parties is under immense strain. Further Yunus has surrendered completely to the ISI and allowed his country to become a playground for Pakistan.
Now it is clear that the NCP has the blessings of Yunus. Even if the NCP were to form the next government in Bangladesh, will it be able to run independently? The party may have said that it is not pro-Pakistan, but with the Yunus shadow cast over the party, will the NCP be able to keep the ISI at bay.
The other challenges that the party faces is the lack of ground level workers. Both the BNP and Awami League have scores of ground level workers who have a good connect with the people. Further both the parties have ruled the country and have the experience to do so. If the NCP thinks that it could rule the country with an advisor like Yunus around, then it is mistaken. Yunus has proven to be a disaster since the past seven months of him taking over. The country has made no headway in maintaining peace and protecting the Hindus. Further a country once touted as one of the most promising economies, currently is a disaster when it comes to finances.
The other big question surrounding the NCP is the funding. It says that the long standing patron-client model followed by earlier governments will not be continued. Under this model, the big businesses very often corrupt would bankroll the political parties in exchange for favours. This ensured that the political parties received ample funding. Will the NCP follow the same model for its funding? The new outfit says that this is not something that it would follow.
While the NCP has for now rejected all offers by big businesses, the question is how will it inject money into its system. The party has promised a Republic which protects against poverty, inequality, abuse of power. If it follows this motto then it is unlikely that the NCP would fall for the patron-client model.
Hence on the face of it, the future for the NCP looks tough. It needs a clean source of funding if it wants to execute what it has promised. Further it will always be at logger heads with the Jamaat. The Jamaat could challenge the NCP by floating a political party led by its students’ wing. If the NCP wants to avoid that clash then it may have to accommodate members of the Jamaat in government jobs. The Jamaat wants a piece of the cake and hence would insist on some portfolios and more importantly government jobs as this is a sure shot way of infiltrating into civil society.
In a nut shell, the formation of the NCP looks good on paper. With Yunus at the helm, interference of the Jamaat, lack of funding and experience could well make the NCP a non-starter.
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