Kerala is undergoing a major demographic change with a report stating that the Muslims in the state have higher live births than their share in the population.
On January 30 2025, think-tank Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) published a report in which concerns were raised about possible religious-demographic imbalances in the state.
The report titled, ‘Religious Demography of India: Rising Religious Imbalance analysed data from the Annual Vital Statistics Report between 2008 and 2021 on birth rates and deaths by religious communities in Kerala.
Key findings
The Muslims overtook the Hindus who form 54 per cent of the population in total live births after 2015. In the year 2019, out of the total live births, Muslims had a share of 44 per cent. This is a stark increase in numbers as the population of Muslims as per the 2011 census was at 27 per cent.
While the live births in Hindus and Christians declined between 20018 and 2021, the share of Muslims in total live birth witnessed a significant increase.
In 2008 the live births of Hindus was at 2,41,305 or 45.04 per cent. In the same year the Muslims recorded live births of 1,94583 while in the case of the Christians it was 94,175. In 2009 the numbers for Hindus went up to 45.51 per cent, while in the case of Muslims it was 37.61 per cent and 16.61 per cent respectively.
In the following year of 2010, the Hindu live birth was recorded at 2,46,297 (45.03 per cent) and Muslim live birth count stood at 2,09276 (38.26 per cent). However in the case of the Christians live births declined to 88,936 or 16.26 per cent.
While in 2012 and 2013 live births of both Hindu and Muslim communities witnessed a sharp increase, the same was the case in 2013. However for Christians the live births dropped during this period.
However, a major change was witnessed in 2014 when the Muslim live births went up while that of Hindus and Christians dropped. From the year 2015, the live births of Muslims continued to go up while that was not the case for Hindus and Christians. That year the live births of Hindus was at 2,221,220 where in the case of Muslims it stood at 2,13,865 and for Christians it was at 79,565.
For the first time in 2016 the live births of Muslims went past that of the Hindus. 2016 recorded 2,11,182 Muslim live births as opposed to the Hindus where the number stood at 2,07,831. Christians during the same year recorded 76,205 live births.
In 2017 the annual live births crossed the 5-lakh mark. However in 2018 live births witnessed a sharp fall. In 2019, the Hindu live births came down to 1,97,06 whereas in the case of the Muslims it was at 2,12,933. In 2020 and 2021 the Hindu live births further declined from 1,85, 411 and 1,81,396. In 2020, the Muslim live births were at 1,96,138 while in 2021 it went down to 1,69,296. The Christian live births went down from 62,265 to 59,766 between 2020 and 2021.
Deciding fertility rate
The CPS report said that the number of births in Kerala rose from 5.36 lakh in 2008 to the peak of 5.60 lakh in 2011. From there, it declined rapidly to reach 5.16 lakh in 2015. It has further declined to 4.46 lakhs in 2020 and 4.20 lakhs in 2021. The live births in 2021 are a quarter below the number in 2011. This, of course, is an indicator of the declining fertility of Kerala. The TFR in Kerala had fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 already by the early nineties as estimated in the first round of the National Family Health Survey of 1992-93. It has fallen to 1.46 in 2021 according to the annual vital statistics report for that year.
Further it pointed out that the Total Fertility Rate remained below replacement levels for over three decades. This has led to the live birth rates falling and this signal that the population is shrinking.
The share of Muslims in total live births has been rising consistently since 2008. The rise was somewhat slower up to 2011 and has been more rapid since then. This rising trend has led to the share of Muslims in live births overtaking that of Hindus after 2015. This is remarkable, because the share of Muslims in the total population of Kerala was less than half that of Hindus in the Census of 2011,” CPC said.
“The data shows a peaking of the share of Muslims at 44.35 percent of all live births in 2019. After that, there is a slight decline in 2020 and, as we have mentioned earlier, a further sharp decline to 40.33 percent in 2021. However, as we see later, this decline in the share of Muslims and a corresponding rise in that of Hindus and Christians is accompanied by the number of deaths among Hindus becoming almost equal to the live births. In case of Christians, recorded deaths in 2021 exceed the number of live births, thus leading to a shrinking of their population,” the report also noted.
Demographic change
The fact that between 2008 and 2019 the share of live births of Muslims has gone up while that of the Hindus and Christians has shrunk is an indicator of a major demographic change. During this period the Muslim live births increased from 36.3 per cent to 44.4 per cent. In the case of the Hindus it fell from 45 per cent to 41 per cent during the same period. The Christian live births fell from 17.6 to 14.3 per cent respectively.
“According to Census 2011, Muslims in Kerala form only 26.6 percent of the population. But their share in the live births in 2019 is as high as 44.4 percent. On the other hand, Hindus have a share of 54.7 percent in the population, but their share in live births is only 41.0 percent. For Christians also, their share of 14.3 percent in total live births is far below their share of 18.4 percent in the population. Stated in other terms, the share of Muslims in live births is two-thirds more than their share in the population, while that of Hindus and Christians is a quarter less than of their share in the population,” the report said.
The CPC report takes note of the fact that Muslims have always been growing faster when compared to Hindus and Christians since 1951. It also says that the gap has also widened considerably. As a consequence of this differential growth, the share of Muslims in the state has increased by 1.84 percentage points at the cost of both Hindus and Christians who have lost 1.44 and 0.64 percentage points, respectively, from their share in 2001, CPC said.
Th higher birth rates are due to the Total Fertility Rate. The last four rounds of the National family Health Survey suggests that the Total Fertility Rate of Muslims has been around 50 per cent higher than of the Hindus in every round except during round four of the survey.
Muslim foray into Kerala
Muslims have been present in the country before the Mughal empire. Muslims arrived in India as early as the 4th century BCE. It was at this time that the Arab traders came to trade spices. Kerala is known for its rich spice trade and hence the traders from the Arab nations were attracted to this state.
The traders apart from doing business also mingled with the local population. Further Kerala became a gateway for Syrian Muslims and traders from the Arab world to travel to the rest of the country. During this time many decided to settle down and this led to Islam reaching the southern state in a big way.
The Arab traders then married Indian women and also established families. The Muslims of Kerala who are dominant in the northern part of the state are known as the Mappilas. They are the oldest native converts to Islam in South Asia.
The presence of Islam was further established when in the 14th century Moroccan traveller Ibn Battuta visited Kerala. The Kerala traders began travelling with their Arab counterparts which led to further alignment of cultural and religion. The influence of Islam was however stamped with the Mughal invasion.
The first Mosque in Kerala dates back to 699 CE, The Cheraman Jump Masjid located in Thrissur, Kerala was built by Malik bin Dinar. He was a contemporary of of the ruler of Kodungallur, Cheraman Perumal, who had traveled to Mecca and converted to Islam. Perumal invited people from Mecca to visit India and spread the teachings of Islam.
