Delhi Assembly election is all set to be the next Waterloo moment for the Congress party. The Congress party which failed to open its account in the last three Lok Sabha and two Assembly elections is likely to meet the same fate in this round of Assembly elections in the NCT of Delhi too. This is the prediction of political pundits. In order to overcome this fiasco in Delhi, election after election, the Congress party had adopted its last tested strategy of attracting and depending on Muslim voters in Delhi. But the Congress party’s excessive dependence on Muslim voters in Delhi Assembly elections is like a double-edged weapon for the party.
The lack of seriousness and enthusiasm of Congress party in Delhi Assembly elections on non-Muslim majority seats is reflected from the fact that Sandeep Dixit has to contest the Assembly election on his own seat in New Delhi Assembly seat against the Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal. Sandeep Dixit is getting almost no support from the party even when Dixit is contesting the election with all his strength and might. The Congress party could have improved its position by strengthening Dixit on the New Delhi Assembly seat.
But it seems that the Congress party has made up its mind to contest the election in Delhi only by targeting the Muslim voters. The choice of venue for Rahul Gandhi’s election rally has further strengthened this idea. Rahul Gandhi has started his election campaign from Seelampur, the Assembly seat with the highest number of Muslim voters in Delhi. This is not the only reason but there is another reason too for Rahul Gandhi to start his election campaign from Seelampur. Seelampur Assembly seat falls under North East Delhi Lok Sabha constituency from where Congress party’s Kanhaiya Kumar contested the electoral battle against BJP’s Manoj Tiwari. In the Lok Sabha election on Seelampur Assembly seat, the Congress party had got a lead of 51011 votes over the BJP. Due to such performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party has big hopes on this seat and wants to take advantage of it.
It seems that the Congress party has made up its mind to contest the election in Delhi only by targeting the Muslim voters. The choice of venue for Rahul Gandhi’s election rally has further strengthened this idea
If we closely monitor the election strategy of the Congress party in Delhi Assembly elections, we find that the party is targeting Muslim majority seats only. These seats include Ballimaran, Seelampur, Seemapuri, Babarpur, Gokalpur (SC), Matia Mahal, Mustafabad, and some other seats. Before 2013, the Congress party used to win these seats without any trouble due to direct fight with the BJP, but after the advent of the Aam Aadmi Party into the electoral fray, the Congress party is losing badly on these seats election after election.
The Congress party is also hopeful of the fact that Muslim voters have been voting for AAP since the last several elections and this time due to the anti-incumbency wave and the anger against the AAP MLAs, the Congress party will definitely be able to open its account among Muslim dominated areas.
Not only that but the 2024 Lok Sabha elections along with some other elections have further strengthened the hope of the Congress party for the Muslim votes. Muslim voters are gravitating towards the Congress party again which can be seen from the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat of Assam. Rakibul Hussain of the Congress party defeated Badruddin Ajmal, the founder of the All India United Democratic Front and the most popular face of Muslims in the Northeast, by the highest margin in the country of more than 10 lakh votes. The victory margin of more than one-third of the 34 MPs of the Congress party is equal to this seat alone. Dhubri is one of the most Muslim-dominated seats in the country. The Congress party was losing badly to Ajmal on this seat in the last three Lok Sabha elections, but this time it has registered a surprising victory.
For the Congress party, the second such political trend was noticed in West Bengal in 2023. In the Muslim-dominated Sagardighi Assembly by-election in Murshidabad district of West Bengal, the Congress party defeated the Trinamool Congress and the BJP and won the by-election with considerable margin. In the 2021 Assembly elections, Mamata Banerjee’s party won the Sagardighi Assembly seat by defeating the BJP. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress party stood at the third position. But in the by-election held due to the death of the Trinamool Congress MLA, the Congress party surprised everyone by winning this Muslim-dominated seat. While the Congress party got 19.45 per cent votes in the 2021 Assembly elections, in the by-election this vote percentage increased by 28 per cent to 47.35 per cent. Not only the Trinamool Congress and the BJP but the Congress party itself was surprised by this result.
