The visit by foreign secretary Vikram Misri to Bangladesh on December 9 is a welcome move and there are signs that talks are likely to move forward.
Spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal said that the foreign secretary is scheduled to visit Bangladesh for Foreign Office Consultations on December 9. This is part of our structured interactions with the Bangladesh side, he also said.
While talks are a welcome move in any crisis situation, the problem however is that the Muhammad Yunus led caretaker government has been taking a confrontational approach in recent times. On one hand, the atrocities against the minorities especially the Hindus has gone up ten-fold on the other the Bangladesh army has enhanced surveillance along the border.
Confrontational tactics
The Turkey developed Bayraktar TB2 drones have been sighted along the Indo-Bangladesh border. This amounts to suspicious activity especially at a time when there has not been a single instance of any provocation by Bharat.
The drones can travel at a speed of about 230 kmph and are capable of destroying modern tanks with the MAM laser-guided missile. These drones can carry up to four such MAMs in one flight.
Further these drones create a disturbing sound when approaching their targets and this is designed to psychologically unsettle the enemy.
Bharat however remains on high alert with this development. However there is not much cause for concern as the Indian Army is capable of handling these drones.
The question is why Bangladesh has decided to deploy these drones especially at a time when tensions are so high between the two nations. Bangladesh may be carrying out a surveillance exercise to study the security on the Indian side.
This is a cause for concern said a security official to Organiser. This border has been notorious for infiltrations and cattle smuggling. Hence the deployment of the drones could be more of a reconnaissance exercise. We all know that the Jamaat is fully in control of Bangladesh and the infiltration programme is heralded by this outfit for many years now. Taking advantage of the situation and with the help of these routes, the Jamaat may also try and send in terrorists into states like West Bengal, Tripura and Assam, the official also warned.
Whose script is Yunus playing to
Muhammad Yunus has proven to be a puppet in every sense. First he was played by the West and next by Pakistan. Currently he is being controlled by the Jamaat and in other words that is Pakistan.
Intelligence Bureau officials say that Pakistan is egging Yunus to provoke Bharat. By escalating tensions and heightening activity along the border, Yunus is trying to be confrontational so that Bharat is provoked and would react. Any knee jerk reaction by the Indian Army would give Bangladesh plenty of leverage. Moreover he has support from the United Kingdom and also the current dispensation in the United States.
Pakistan is aware of this fact and would want to leverage this before there is a regime change in the US. Islamabad knows that the US deep state will not be able to function with ease once Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20.
Islamabad would also look to push Yunus to hold an election as early as possible. It is aware that the Awami League is still capable of winning the polls if a free and fair election is held. Under Yunus the elections will not be free and this means that for the BNP and Jamaat it would be cakewalk.
Testing the waters
The next month and half would be crucial as ties between Bharat and Bangladesh remain fragile. Bharat is not interested in any sort of provocation at least militarily and will not fall into the trap that Islamabad is trying to set. Bharat would continue to try and engage with Bangladesh, while also conveying in strong words that its patience should not be tested for long.
If a BNP government is in power, Bharat would still be able to handle the Bangladesh issue. The party has been in power in the past and New Delhi has dealt with the country back then as well. The road ahead may be tough, but all is not lost.
Bharat is testing the waters to see how the developments would shape up. Currently the biggest priority is to secure the lives and liberties of the minority community in Bangladesh.
If Bangladesh does not come around and continues to irk Bharat then an all out trade war could be launched. Moreover with Donald Trump set to take over, the games being played by Islamabad would come down and Bharat would be in a better position to deal with the issue.
However another official said that New Delhi would like to deal with the situation on its own as it has the capability to do so. A change of regime in the US would add to the support morally, he also explained.
A lot would depend on the talks that the foreign secretary would hold during his December 9 visit to Bangladesh. While one should not expect the sky, it is still a start and would set the tone for how relations are shaped up in the days to come.
