With the result of Wayanad Lok Sabha by-poll and the two Assembly seats in Kerala it is becoming obvious clear that there is secret understanding between the Gandhi family and the Kerala Chief Minister P Vijayan. In Kerala by-polls were held for Wayanad LS seat and two Assembly seats of Palakkad and Chelakkara. Wayanad LS by-poll was held due to resignation of Rahul Gandhi from the seat as he won 2024 LS election from two seats of Wayanad and Rae Bareli.
In 2024 LS election Wayanad seat poll was held in second phase while Rae Bareli polled in fifth phase. The notification for Rae Bareli LS seat was held only after the voting in Wayanad. Rahul Gandhi did not even mention his intention of contesting from any other seat till the voting in Wayanad.
It’s also a matter of thought that why Rahul Gandhi resigned from Wayanad. It was obvious since the result of the LS that Priyanka Vadra would contest from the seat which would be vacated by Rahul Gandhi. It would be easy for Priyanka Gandhi to win by-poll from Rae Bareli. From Rae Bareli since 1967 the Gandhi family is contesting and winning barring 1977. Indira Gandhi started from the family to contested from the seat and winning the seat barring 1977 when she was defeated by Raj Narain of the Janata Party by big margin of 16.62 per cent of votes.
In 1980 Indira Gandhi won from two seats of Medak in erstwhile State of Andhra Pradesh and her traditional seat of Rae Bareli. But Indira Gandhi resigned from Rae Bareli to make way for his cousin Arun Nehru to enter Lok Sabha as she felt the seat safer for Arun Nehru.
Similarly it was expected that Rahul Gandhi may vacate Rae Bareli in order to give safe entry to Priyanka Vadra to Lok Sabha. But the decision of the Rahul Gandhi and largely of the family to resign from Wayanad had some unusual meaning. Why Rahul Gandhi resigned from Wayanad? The main reason is the secret understanding between the Gandhi family and the Chief Minister of Kerala Pinayari Vijayan.
The Gandhi family requires a seat from southern States in order to keep their representation in Lok Sabha. Sonia Gandhi’s Bellary LS seat experiment failed miserably as the Congress party lost the seat in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 LS elections after resigning of Bellary seat in favor of Amethi in 1999. Due to such result of Bellary in Karnataka the Gandhi family is suspicious of its winning from any seat in the State. Besides in Tamil Nadu the Congress party is a parasite to the shoulders of the DMK. In Andhra Pradesh the Congress party has no representation in Lok Sabha or in Assembly. The Congress party has hopes only from States of Telengana and Kerala in southern India.
In 1984 LS election the Congress party had even lost Medak seat in erstwhile Andhra Pradesh to the NTR’s the Telugu Desam Party. This happened even when the Congress party won 404 seats by contesting on 491 seats in then held LS election. The Congress party lost only 87 seats in the then held elections including Medak which was won by Indira Gandhi in 1980. The LS elections in Assam and Punjab were held later.
The secret understanding between the Gandhi family and P Vijayan is that Vijayan will be allowed to win the Assembly election in Kerala and the Gandhi family will win Wayanad LS seat in exchange for that. In 2021 Assembly election in Kerala the Left Democratic Front(LDF) won the Assembly election in succession was a big development as since 1982 election after election there is system of change of governance between the Congress party led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM led LDF.
But the Congress party contested Assembly election in Kerala 2021 with minimal strength. The Congress party never put its full effort to win the Assembly election but it became only part of the ongoing electoral process. Even the Congress party ally and second largest constituent of the UDF the Indian Union Muslim League had put more fierce fight to the LDF on the 25 seats it contested within its quota within the alliance.
While on Wayanad LS seat either in 2024 LS election or in consequent by-poll the CM of Kerala P Vijayan was not serious for strong political contest with the Congress party. The CPM and the LDF only put token contest against either Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Vadra. Even victory margin of Priyanka Vadra has increased in the by-poll.
In two Assembly by-polls in Kerala both the seats were retained by the respective allies. One seat was won by the CPM while the other by the Congress party. Chelakkara seat remained with the CPM while on Palakkad Assembly seat the Congress party won as in 2021 Assembly election. The BJP was runner on Palakkad AC while on Chelakkara AC the BJP vote share was improved by 5.81 with respect to its 2021 performance on the seat.
Due to increasing mass base of the BJP in Kerala the Gandhi family and P Vijayan both are in state of desperation. The Gandhi family is fearful of its Wayanad LS seat while P Vijayan is cautious for CM’s post.
Besides three members of the Gandhi family in Parliament Robert Vadra had already made his intentions clear for his Lok Sabha membership. So in next LS election we cannot deny the fact that Amethi MP Kishorilal Sharma may be force to vacate his seat in favour of the Gandhi family.
