The violence has flared up to dangerous levels in Manipur once again. Just a month back, there were signs of thaw amongst the warring Meitei and Kuki groups. The government has been sincerely trying to build up communication channels between the two communities. The recent talks and meetings between Meitei and Kuki MLAs also made some headway. Therefore, the sudden violence obviously been sponsored by those who do not want peace in Manipur.
This time around, the elected representatives are facing the ire of the protestors. The curfew has been imposed in the entire Imphal valley, Bishnupur, Thoubal, Jiribam and Kakching districts. The internet services have been suspended. Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been reimposed in most of the state. There are unconfirmed reports of BJP legislators seeking removal of Chief Minister N Biren Singh. Given the current precarious law & order situation in the state, the current state leadership is unlikely to regain the moral authority to rule and govern the state of Manipur.
Having served in Manipur during my military career and having followed up the events in the state, I am convinced that some tough action is warranted in the state now. So far, the security forces were in the defensive mode, with the aim of minimising collateral damage. Mind you, this type of action is very tough for the troops on ground, because you are expected to fight the armed militant with one hand tied down. The offensive action, which is based on hard intelligence and is short & swift is now needed in the state of Manipur.
First and foremost is the ability of the security forces to control and rein in the mobs. In Manipur, both the warring factions have the ability to muster thousands of protestors in quick time, that too with women leading the protests. The protestors storm the official buildings, residences and block the roads in no time and the security forces are really stretched to control them. The traditional methods of controlling such mobs through flag marches, tear gases, water cannons and barricades has limited effect on such aggressive mobs. Now the security forces may have to open fire at these unruly mobs. There is a risk of human rights violation but that has to be accepted as long as the principle of minimum force is applied by the security forces.
In order to deal with such volatile situation, I recommend that Human Rights activists and nominated persons be embedded with security forces. Some judicial officers can also accompany the security forces in sensitive locations. Such action would put the necessary caution on the security forces and the human rights watchdogs would also get to know the actual ground situation and compulsions. In short, irate mobs should be dealt with firmly, at the earliest.
The availability of sophisticated weapons, particularly with the Kuki groups is surprising. It appears that the weapons have been smuggled in through the porous Indo-Myanmar border. People’s Defence Force of Myanmar, a militia force is now in control of the border areas with Manipur. This faction which is fighting Myanmar military junta has the patronage of China. China could have sold or given sophisticated arms & ammunition as also the armed drone technology to the Kuki militants. Now the security forces have no choice but to launch offensive action to disarm the militants on the both sides. It’s going to be tough and such offensive action may lead to some human rights violation. Therefore, the security forces should follow the laid down Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) while undertaking such operations.
The Centre has rushed 20 additional companies of para military forces into Manipur. In the state of Manipur, the Assam Rifles has the experience and expertise to deal with such complex situations in the past. I recommend that additional Assam Rifles battalions, presently deployed in relatively peaceful states of the North East be redeployed in Manipur. Assam Rifles has the ability to quickly revive the human intelligence network in Manipur. The Manipur state police also need to be completely overhauled. It may be equally challenging but the 398 km Indo- Myanmar border of the state has to be quickly fenced, with modern infrastructure and latest technology. The security forces themselves need huge amount of coordination and I suggest a three-star General officer of the Army with past experience of having served in the state, to be based in Imphal and to head the unified command structure till return of normalcy.
The security forces should not hesitate to employ heavy weapons and automatic fire against the militants. Certain area weapons like the mortars and rocket launchers can also be used, as per the threat perception. Aerial domination by helicopters is another option. I fully understand that such offensive action may cause casualties to innocent civilians but such is the nature of grey zone warfare. Indian security forces use maximum restraint while fighting terrorism. Compare it with use of airpower, rockets, missiles, drones etc. by Israel against the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. Immediate firm action may have more advantages to restore the situation in Manipur, even at some cost of human rights violation. Therefore, the complete state of Manipur is a fit case for imposition of AFSPA.
While the political decision about the fate of N Biren Singh government may happen soon, the Centre has rightly taken control of the counter terrorist operations in Manipur. The immediate aim now should be fair, firm and decisive action against the armed groups from both the warring factions. A time bound action plan to restore peace & normalcy in Manipur by the end of the year 2024 is critical for the strategically important state of Manipur. The people of Manipur themselves are the biggest stakeholders in ushering peace in their homeland and begin the year 2025 with hope, positivity and togetherness amongst all communities.
