After Iran fired several missiles into Israel, the country stands at a vital diplomatic crossroads. Iranian missile attacks have sent shockwaves across the world’s geopolitical landscape and have seriously raised questions about the possibility of full-scale conflict in the Middle East. There is particularly special interest for India in the possible implications of this escalation, as India has strategic partnerships with both Iran and Israel.
This confrontation not only threatens regional stability but also global energy security and the diplomatic efforts put in place for peace. In the following article, we will discuss the broader ramifications of this conflict from an Indian perspective and the potential challenge it may pose to the international community.
Modi’s recent tweet on talks with Netanyahu:
On September 30, 2024, PM Modi on X, spoke about his conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where he appealed for peace in the region and expressed solidarity. “Spoke to PM @netanyahu on recent developments in West Asia. Terrorism has no place in our world. Must prevent regional escalation, and all hostages released safely.”
India will continue to provide all possible support to the efforts being made for the early restoration of peace and stability in the region.
In the wake of deepened tensions between Israel and Iran after the death of the leader of Hezbollah, and Operation Northern Arrows, Modi’s tweet drew international attention. It is the first time that PM Modi advocated to prevent any kind of further escalations in the Middle East as there is a high chance of a direct escalation between Israel and Iran.
The Dilemma for India:
This Modi tweet resonates with one trend in New Delhi’s history-growth pattern, that of a partial endorsement for Israel. Meanwhile, however, this again provides ammo to those voices in India that caution and impose strategic restraint because New Delhi needs to tread an extremely thin line without antagonizing Iran either. The potential harms that may befall India in this competition are:
1. Frayed Relations with Iran: Iran would view India’s growing closeness to Israel with profound suspicion. This could affect India’s energy security and strategic investments, especially the Chabahar Port, just because of the conviction from Iran’s side that it has always feared the increase in Israel’s relevance in West Asia and if Indians start moving closer to Israel, Tehran would reduce its cooperation with New Delhi.
2. Stressed Energy Security: Iran was India’s largest oil supplier before sanctions were imposed by the United States. A war targeting Iran would further alienate Tehran and dismember the country, which would potentially disrupt India’s energy security. Greater generalized instability in West Asia, from which the biggest share of India’s oil imports comes, could cause electricity price instability and bring economic costs to the Indian economy.
3. Regional Security Issues: A war between Israel and Iran would seriously destabilise West Asia, where India’s expatriate population resides and from whence some of the critical inflows in remittances come. Thousands of Indian nationals are reportedly working in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, a region that would take the worst of a protracted war. Any regional security disruption impacts this very workforce and their inflows into India’s economy.
Running through the diplomatic Tightrope :
India’s growing engagement with Israel, as seen in Modi reaching out to Netanyahu, need not necessarily be taken to mean that India is choosing between the two nations of this rivalry. India has adopted a consistent policy of De-Hyphenation and has made conscious efforts to pursue relations with both Israel and Iran on mutual interest considerations. India must effectively manage the risks that may unfold if there is a conflict with the following:
1. Asserting Neutrality: India must assert that it is not an interventionist country in the Israel-Iran conflict. Thus, if it is to engage with both parties diplomatically without appearing to take sides, then it will not be readily pulled into the geopolitical struggle between them.
2. Multilateral Diplomacy: India has to use the multilateral platforms availed by its position at the United Nations to bring about a dialogue and peaceful resolution between Israel and Iran thus preventing its assumption to be one-sided. India’s role in this regard is constructive in reducing the issues.
3. Diversification of Energy Imports: Though an important strategic asset for India, Iran has already been diversifying its energy imports. In recent times, Iran has imported oil from the United States, Russia, and many other countries. Diversification of energy imports would help India turn out to be less vulnerable if energy supplies get disrupted due to a conflict in West Asia.
4. Protect Strategic Investments: India should continue to protect its strategic investments in Iran, specifically its Chabahar Port, which is a significant hub for trade and connectivity between Afghanistan and Central Asia. A very sensitive balance between keeping an ongoing relationship with Iran and further improving relations with Israel will require deft diplomacy.
Prime Minister Narendar Modi’s last tweet where he talks to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasises the fact that the partnership between India and Israel is going steadily and raises certain questions in the context of the hotting up relations between Israel and Iran and that India needs to tread this tightrope with huge care since its national interests in relation to security and energy will not take a back seat. India can actually manage the risks related to an Israel-Iran conflict by employing diplomatic neutrality, multilateral engagement, and strategic diversification while continuing to do other things under which Israel and Iran feel strong pressure.
For sure, the war with Iran will not prove to be a piece of cake for Israel. Israel has to taste the hardest part of the cake, and without the direct support of American troops, Israel couldn’t go for full escalation, and entry of American troops into the war is going to be the deadliest and costliest of all time in the Middle East and for the entire world. So this is concerning for India. Also, we are witnessing somehow the bitter taste of a multipolar world, and as prof Happymon Jacob wrote, ” Those who seek a multipolar world often romanticise it as non-hegemonic, egalitarian & inclusive. In reality, multipolarity could be messier, more unstable, potentially more violent etc. Just look around! And the world has not yet become multipolar.”
