Bharat faces an increasingly complex security landscape, with adversaries employing hybrid warfare tactics to destabilise the nation. Hybrid wars use multi-domain warfighting approaches, including cyberattacks, disinformation and subversion, economic blackmail, sabotage, and sponsorship of proxy forces to destabilise a society or nation by influencing its decision-making process without resorting to traditional conflict. Advancements in technology and its fusion with irregular forces add different dimensions to warfare.
In J&K, of late, terrorists have been killing non-local workers to prevent infrastructure and economic development. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) report released on September 19, says, inter alia, that the Left Wing Extremism is trying to dislodge the central government in India. In the conflict in Manipur, inimical forces are playing their role to carve out a separate state. Efforts are also being made by a few anti-national elements within and outside India for a separate Khalistan. Addressing an event on Police Commemoration Day on October 21 2024, the Honourable Home Minister said that emerging threats like drones, narcotic trade, cybercrime, attempts to spread unrest through AI, conspiracy to incite religious sentiments, infiltration, smuggling of illegal arms and terrorism are the challenges we face today. A few recent incidents in succeeding paras are noteworthy.
As reported in Indian media on August 29 2024, the mastermind of the 2002 Akshardham Temple attack and Bengaluru’s Rameshwar Café blast, Farhatullah Ghori, has sent a message to terror sleeper cells in India to carry out attacks on trains, petroleum pipelines and Hindu leaders. The message shared on telegram directed sleeper cells to target Indian railway infrastructure. It also called for an attack similar to the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel. Recently released from Bangladesh jail, Jashimuddin Rahmani, chief of the terror group who plotted attacks in India, has also called upon his cadre to carry out attacks in India.
Rising sabotage incidents- 56 in 2024, threaten India’s vast railway network, endangering millions of daily passengers. This becomes a serious concern as India’s 132000 km railway network has been rendered vulnerable. Fishplates and clips have been removed in some cases. Boulders, iron bars, gas cylinders, fire extinguishers, hammers and even bikes have been found in the way of running trains. These objects are large enough to derail a running train, putting millions of lives in danger. Signalling systems are interfered with or removed to misdirect a train, which can lead to possible collision. Recently a senior political leader met some class 3 and 4 railway employees and told them that they are of lower cast and their seniors/ officers are of higher cast. Is there an attempt to create divisions/ disrupt our railway network, which is a great unifier in our country?
In the last ten days, more than 170 flights operated by Indian carriers have received hoax bomb threats, resulting in avoidable delays and fear in the minds of passengers. Is this to assess the reaction of airlines and the security establishment before the actual attack? Such incidents create fear and affect trade and the economy. With current relations between Canada and India and Khalistani terrorists in Canada getting encouraged by Justine Trudeau’s stand on the Nijjar murder case, this can be dangerous, keeping in view what happened in 1985 to the ill-fated Air India Flight.
A bomb blast near CRPF School in Delhi took place on October 19, and a Khalistani group from Canada claimed responsibility.
A dossier prepared by ED after a four-year probe revealed that PFI has hundreds of enlisted members and offices across Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Delhi. Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, J7K and Manipur. The outfit, which was proscribed under UAPA in 2022 after a failed attempt on PM Modi’s life in July 2022, has at least 13000 members in Singapore and five Gulf countries, from where funds are generated in cash and sent to India through Hawala, according to ED dossier. An arms training camp in Narath in Kerala’s Kannur district was found, where PFI cadre were being trained in the use of explosives and weapons under the garb of physical education classes. The real objective of PFI is to carry out Islamic movement in India through Jihad, though PFI masquerades itself as a social organisation. So far, the money trail has led to revelations of a collection of over 94 crores by PFI and its affiliates. PFI has been using this money for terror activities in the country, the ED has said to the media.
Contemporary Technologies which exacerbate hybrid warfare challenges autonomous systems: These systems can perform tasks in changing environments with limited human intervention or control. These systems can be vulnerable to cyberattacks, supply chain disruptions, or exploitation by adversaries for intelligence collection, eg.-A, a Chinese company, ZPMC Engineering, installed intelligence gathering equipment on cranes used at seaports across the US that could allow Beijing to spy on Americans. Most of the CCTV cameras used in India are of Chinese origin.
Drones present a unique challenge to the security organisations. In the wrong hands, regular consumer drones can be used as lethal weapons. It enables terrorists to plan, coordinate and launch a vast range of deadly and potentially disruptive attacks against civilians, soft targets, and critical infrastructure.
- Generative AI: There has been a significant increase in cyber tools and services over the last few years that profoundly impact the threat landscape, as more state and non-state actors obtain capabilities and intelligence not previously available to them.
- Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs): A sophisticated, sustained cyberattack occurs when an intruder enters a network undetected, remaining for a long time to steal sensitive data. They frequently involve the use of AI to avoid detection and target specific organisations or individuals.
- AI-powered Malware: Malware that uses AI has been taught to think for itself, adapt its course of action in response to the situation, and particularly target its victims’ systems.
- Phishing: Using natural language processing and machine learning, attackers create convincing phishing emails and messages that are designed to trick individuals into revealing sensitive information.
- Deepfake attacks: These employ artificial intelligence-generated synthetic media, such as fake images, videos, or audio recordings that are indistinguishable from real ones. They can be used to impersonate people in authority or even to spread false information, which can be used for malicious purposes.
Information Warfare: All means of communication are used for this during peace or war.
Quantum information Science and Technology: A large-scale quantum computer could potentially allow for the decryption of the most commonly used cybersecurity protocols. Thus, it puts the Cyberinfrastructure at risk of protecting today’s economic and national security communications. Whoever wins the quantum computing supremacy race could compromise others’ communications.
Blockchain technology: The use of cryptocurrencies on the dark net ( like TOR, Freenet, Zero net) for terror acts, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities poses a serious threat to India’s national security and a big threat to security agencies as well. Cryptocurrencies have emerged as one of the most advanced methods for terror financing, which we cannot trace.
Steps Bharat must take to effectively prepare against Hybrid Warfare
- India must develop a ‘whole of government’ approach to tackle hybrid warfare threats from its adversaries. A coordinated ‘grand plan’ encompassing all ministries, is needed to address this threat.
- Establish Counter National Hybrid Warfare Agency: To coordinate efforts across agencies.
- Special provision for fast justice delivery in national security cases is the need of the hour. All pillars of the Justice Delivery System, viz, judiciary, police, jails and prosecution, need to be revamped. Delayed justice encourages anti-national elements to carry on with their nefarious designs.
- Public Awareness and Education: Raising awareness about the conduct of hybrid warfare by inimical forces, their modus operandi and various precautions they need to take in the interest of national security. All efforts should also be made to foster Social cohesion.
- Enhance the strength of NIA and ED officials and provide them with the requisite skills, money and finances to swiftly deal with various anti-national elements.
- We must adopt a multi-prong strategy, including technological advances, suitable policies, and international collaboration.
- Further enhance the national budget and our efforts in research and development, especially in AI, Quantum computing, cyber technology and biotechnology.
- Establish dedicated R&D centres and synergise efforts of academia, private and government sectors and defence forces.
- Financial transactions must be made transparent, including cryptocurrency, and no Hawala transactions should be allowed. This itself can nip many problems in the bud.
- The private sector needs to be included: this will help innovate new technologies/methods to deal with hybrid threats. In the Ukraine Conflict, various technical giants like Google, Meta and Starlink helped Ukraine with their expertise.
- The UN created the Global Counter-Terrorism Programme on Autonomous and Remotely Operated Systems (AROS Programme) in 2021 to support member states in addressing the threat posed by drones and other AROS. There is a need to establish an international framework for collaboration and cooperation among nations.
- Biotechnological advancements: Enhance biotechnology research and develop countermeasures against biothreats.
- Strengthening Cyberinfrastructure and capabilities to defend against cyber attacks, espionage and information warfare. Also, critical infrastructure and national assets must be secured.
Hybrid warfare is a complex and evolving threat to Bharat’s national security. A multifaceted approach involving government agencies, private sector and civil society is needed. We need to be proactive, resilient, and stay ahead of the curve to face these challenges and emerge stronger.
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