With the election results having been declared last week, it has been given to understand that the new government in Jammu & Kashmir will be taking oath this Wednesday. With this, a new socio-political scenario would emerge in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir. The first and foremost job for the new government led by the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) would be establishing a working relationship with the Central government and the Lt. Governor of Union Territory.
There are many unprecedented technical and administrative issues that the new government will have to cope with in the given scenario. The notion that the ‘JKNC and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) hold collective responsibility for Jammu & Kashmir’s fate & future’ is the biggest message of the kind of results of the recently held Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir. This message needs to be recognised, diffused and analysed. It would be necessary for this issue to be brought to the notice of the political leaders, political parties, and the common citizens of the UT as the foremost narrative for the next five years.
The JKNC has emerged as the biggest political party in the state, with an overwhelming representation of the Kashmir valley in terms of seats (42), and it won. However, it is the second-largest party in terms of the vote share it got (23.5 per cent). The BJP came out as the second-largest party in terms of seats (29) it got, but it has simultaneously emerged as the biggest political party in the state in terms of its vote share (almost 26 per cent). It won all its seats in the Jammu region only. On the face of it, it becomes clear that the voters have recognised the JKNC as the prime representative of the Kashmir valley. Likewise, the BJP stands as the premier representative of the Jammu region. All other political forces in the state have been virtually sidelined, huffed or decimated in the electoral battle, including the Congress and the PDP. The consequent results haven’t been alleged as rigged or manipulated by anyone this time.
To clear the position, it needs to be noted that the Kashmir valley has a larger population than the Jammu region. Still, it has a comparatively smaller area than the Jammu region. While Jammu constitutes an area of around 26,000 square km, the Kashmir valley comprises almost 16,000 square km only. The BJP can claim representation of a bigger geographical area, while the JKNC can do so in terms of the population it represents. The JKNC has six seats in the Jammu region (mostly from the Muslim-dominated constituencies). The BJP has emerged as a key player in the Kashmir valley for the first time with almost 6 per cent vote share. The other fact is that it has stood second in two constituencies in the valley and third or fourth in several other constituencies.
In a nutshell, while JKNC has emerged as the main representative of the Kashmir valley and the Muslim population of the state, the BJP has emerged as the principal representative of the Jammu region and the Hindu population of the state. This equation is reminiscent of the past when Srinagar Study Circle and Jammu & Kashmir Muslim Conference (latterly JKNC) stood as the representatives of the Muslims and the Kashmir valley and were pitted against the then Maharaja of the state and Praja Parishad and Bhartiya Jana Sangh (latterly as BJP) would represent the sentiments of the Jammu region and the Hindu minorities of the state and would support full integration of the state with the Union of India.
The BJP, in all its forms and manifestations, opposed both ‘constitutional separatism’ as well as ‘extra-constitutional separatism’. The JKNC was always a votary of ‘constitutional separatism’ and would at times even support ‘extra-constitutional separatism’, sometimes overtly and sometimes covertly. Article 370/35A, special status, separate symbol, a separate constitution for the state and the separate flag were all representative of ‘constitutional separatism’, which would encourage ‘extra-constitutional separatism’, leading to the absurdity of secessionism and terrorism. Article 370, though a temporary provision in the Indian constitution, was instrumental in providing an administrative mechanism for separatism and fissiparous tendencies in the J&K state. With the abrogation of Article 370, the issue of ‘constitutional separatism’ is buried forever.
The National Conference, as a responsible representative of the people of the state and especially of the valley elected under the Indian constitution, has a bounden duty and responsibility to make its core constituency, particularly in the valley, understand the ground realities of the current socio-political scenario of the state as well as of the nation. Article 370 is a dream impossibility that can never be restored, particularly after the two final decisions of the Supreme Court of India. The primary task of the National Conference is to take the Jammu region along, make cordial relations with the Centre, provide a people’s friendly government and work towards the welfare, safety and security of its minorities in the state. All other issues, including statehood, can wait.
On the other hand, the BJP, as the elected representative of the Jammu region, has several responsibilities and will have to prove itself equal to the task in the given situation. Besides being the torch bearer of Jammu’s interests, it has also received the overwhelming support of the state’s minorities, refugees, and displaced people living in the region and a sizeable portion of the population in the Kashmir valley. It will have to protect the political, religious and human rights of these sections of society, particularly when all these sections have reposed their trust in the party. It has an added responsibility since the BJP leads the Central government, and the Lt. Governor of the UT is an appointee of the Central government.
Under the J&K Reorganization Act 2019, the LG of the UT has a vast arena of political and administrative powers despite having an elected government in the UT. This puts an extra onus on the BJP to make its mission of protecting minorities and the people of the Jammu region a reality in functionality and essence. BJP will be held more responsible in all circumstances by its core voter constituency in the given scenario. This doesn’t absolve the government of the day from its responsibilities towards its citizens. However, considering the past experiences of the NC and NC-Cong rule in the state, the BJP will have to be extra-cautious and proactive and prove itself as a truly contributing factor so far as the safety, security and welfare of the minorities are concerned.
The J&K state heavily depends on the Central government’s aid and support. The state has meagre revenue sources of its own. Any confrontation by the state government with the Centre will only jeopardise the pace of development in the UT, precipitate a financial crisis and create an unpalatable political situation. The JKNC has a tough test, particularly when its allies in the Indi-Alliance have their irons on fire. States ruled by the Indi-Alliance partners have a very dismal report card to exhibit. The Supreme Court of India also rejected their pleas for more funds from the Centre. Then, they also have nothing tangible to offer to J&K. The JKNC-led government in the UT of J&K needs to learn lessons from the past and the present. Any kind of unfriendly relations with the Centre has the potential to lead the UT to mayhem and chaos, which no saner element would like to happen.
The JKNC would be expected to run a responsible government in the UT, and the BJP is supposed to act as a responsible and effective opposition. The central government would be expected to maintain public order and bring terrorism to its end, as well as help the UT government with its welfare measures whenever it needs support. The controversial political questions need permanent rest. The parliament can take up the statehood issue only when there is a guarantee that the UT will not return to the stage from which it has been brought out with so much labour, sacrifices and planning. Let the new government work to create ‘an appropriate time’ to take up that question by the Centre. It is time to perform collective responsibilities under the constitution with commitment and dedication.
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