Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Poland and Ukraine from August 21-24, 24. American Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Tel Aviv resolving Hamas Israel Conflict. But his whole attention was on the Russo Ukraine Cease Fire Cauldron, so important for Security of Europe. It is for sure that PM Narendra Modi has cast a positive shadow on Russo Ukraine Cease Fire Solution. Poland is the last prominent NATO Bastion near/ bordering Russia and only land route for American/NATO Weapons and Other Aid to war-torn Ukraine for the last 21/2 years.
Though recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had emphasised that in Present Circumstances, Cease Fire is a Distant Dream; Russian President Vladimir Putin had Shown Inclination to Discuss Cease Fire. America/NATO, bearing the burden of supporting Ukraine, are sure that if there is an opportune time for Cease Fire, it is Now or Never. PM Narendra Modi has visited Ukraine at a Volatile Juncture of War. On 06 August 24, Ukraine has gone in Western Kursk Region of Russia and Russia is grinding out Slow but Steady Advances in Eastern Ukraine.
This is a historic opportunity for India to become a Global Peace Master, at the same time, remain Non Aligned to any Global Camp and further Indian National Interests. India has Three Envisaged Roles in this Conflict; a) End idea of Colonialism and Imperialism by arranging Cease Fire to contain Russian Aggressive Nature and ensure Ukrainian Rights to exist as a Free Nation; b) Check formation of Axis of Evil between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea and c) Though Resolution of Conflict is governed by Military Situation on Ground, Indian PM will have to exercise his personal Charm and Trust with both Putin and Zelensky. Even a mere hint of Agreement on Initiation of Peace Talks between these Two would enhance his and India’s Image as a Global Peace Broker and Influencer.
End July/beginning August 24 saw; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky working towards ending “The Hot Stage of War” and Russian President Vladimir Putin showing interest in US/NATO led negotiations. Now, World is waiting with abated breath for India to Start and Accelerate the Peace Process. Probabilities of a Frozen Conflict, a Negotiated Ceasefire, Potential Armistice or a Peace Agreement are in sight. Since neither Russia nor Ukraine has achieved a Clear Victory, both have to invest in making one or more of these probabilities to Become Real. Ukraine has realised that ”Winning lost territories back by force is difficult and only the Power of Diplomacy could help her to Establish Peace”. Zelensky has realised it after his Multiple Drone Attacks on Moscow destroyed a S 300 Air Defence System Congregation on 21 August 24 because in spite of that, Russia still continued to fight relentlessly in Eastern Ukraine. Russia would respect the deal so long as Territorial Claims for her Physical Safety and Safety of Pipelines from Mainland Russia to Black Sea and beyond are Firmly Recognised. Both seem to be ready for negotiation if talks are in Good Faith. And that is where India comes in.
Defence Analyst envisage Four Potential Endings of Russo Ukraine Conflict; a) Frozen Conflict : Can pose Very Highest Risk of renewed conflict; b) Negotiated Ceasefire: Less chances of Conflict Recurrence. Must have concurrence of America/NATO and China as well creation of a Demilitarised Zone; c) Cease Fire followed by an Armistice which may take a long time to mature; d) General Peace Settlements between Russia and Ukraine followed by Settlements between Russia and America/NATO to ensure European Security.
Frozen Conflict
Russia may/would prefer a Frozen Conflict to prevent Western Influence in areas surrounding her domain where Russian Minorities are residing. That way, she can support Separatists in those nearby Areas for continuing Low-level Fighting in those areas on her behalf as “War of Attrition”. Ukraine may/would not accept this arrangement/agreement as this would be a “de facto Legitimisation of Russian Gains”. America/NATO may/would oppose it as it entails risk for European Security. Even Russia also may/would not accept this as it would increase chances of granting NATO Membership to Ukraine.
Formal Cease Fire
If Ukrainian Counter Offensive in Kursk Region peter out without major gains/fails, as is anticipated/expected, she may/would have No Option but to accept/ negotiate for a Formal Ceasefire to ward off further Loss of Lives/ Infrastructure. If Ukraine is successful in her Counter Offensive inside Russia, Russians may, perforce, have to accept a Negotiated Ceasefire to Stop Ukrainian Onslaught. But it must be understood that, Negotiated Ceasefires can Break Down, may be in few days/months, as seen after Indo Pak/Arab Israel Conflicts under following conditions; a) If there is No Clear Victor; b) both have a History of Violence and c) Very Existence of one side is at Stake. These factors may become a major Stumbling Block to Russo Ukrainian Cease Fire. On other hand, Negotiated Cease Fire may become More Durable under following conditions; d) If there is Sufficient Incentives for adhering to Ceasefire; e) Mutual Faith in actions and intentions of Adversary and f) System of controlling Accidental Violations is in vogue / in place firmly. Again, this is where Modi’s Acumen and Diplomacy comes in.
Russian terms for a Ceasefire are : a) Ukraine to be a Neutral,Non Nuclear State; b) Ukraine to give up Idea of acquiring NATO Membership or Placement of Foreign Military Bases/Troops on her soil; c) America/NATO to guarantee these terms. Maybe, if America/NATO agrees, Russia might not oppose Ukraine becoming an EU Member and might agree to negotiate over captured Ukrainian Territory at a Later Stage. It is certain that America/NATO would try to mitigate the severity of Russian terms by future removal/dilution of some of the Stringent Sanctions. There is always a possibility of Russian Reorganisation for restarting her Offensive by taking advantage of Ceasefire.
To guard against that, International Observers would be required to Monitor and Arbitrate disputes between Ukraine and Russia in the Demilitarised Zone, which is required to be created running the full length of Cease Fire Line. Presence of Monitors extends the duration of Cease Fire and reduces risk of any Renewed Conflict. War devastated Ukraine will need Construction Material required to come by Land Route. Both; Ukraine and Russia will require Sea Route to ship out their Oil and Food Grains respectively, for which, Ceasefire Agreement would have to Guarantee Access to Shipping Lanes in Black Sea. China has offered help to reconstruct Ukraine once Cease Fire is put to effect. There is scope for India too. Extended Cease Fire will enable the European Union to develop more Strategic Defence Capabilities against Russia.
Armistice and Peace Settlement
Permanent/Extended Cease Fire would enable for a Formal Armistice though it does not guarantee Durable Peace. According to Defence Analysts; Formal Armistice will not take root till Vladimir Putin is at the helm of affairs in Russia. Peace Treaty/Formal Armistice between Russia and Ukraine may/would culminate in talks between America/NATO and Russia to formulate Arms Control on Conventional and Nuclear Weaponry. It is possible that, in future, Russia might forgo some of the captured Ukrainian Territory to Extract Economic Concessions from Western Countries.
America may Stop all Military Assistance if Ukraine does not give a Positive Response to Cease Fire Call/Negotiations. She may slap more Stringent Economic Sanctions on Russia if she refuses Cease Fire Call. America will have a change of regime in January, 25. If; any one of above probabilities to end conflict does not become Effective Reality by then and Donald Trump becomes the President of America, he will definitely resort to taking above discussed steps. In any case, Trump wants America to turn away from Europe and instead focus on Asia. He had expressed so in no uncertain terms during his last tenure as President of America. Europe is scared of escalation of Russo Ukraine War to engulf her and reduction in American support for Ukraine which serves as a deterrent against Russian aggressions
Russo Ukraine Cease Fire Cauldron is difficult to resolve, as was evident from February 2022 onwards. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to “Fight till End”. Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to relent till Ukraine and America/NATO agree to “His Demands”. All efforts of a possible reproach have failed so far. Anti War Sentiments are on the rise both in America/NATO countries, maybe because the Financial Burden of supporting Ukraine indefinitely and Simultaneous Deprivation of natural oil and gas from Russia and food grains from Ukraine has resulted in Social Hardships which obviously is taking a toll on European Life. Both Russian and Ukrainian Presidents have been wishing/hinting for help from PM Narendra Modi to progress Cease Fire efforts. PM Modi has met both these Leaders during various conferences over the last few months. It was not for nothing that he made a surprise dash to Russia and met President Vladimir Putin in July 24. Exactly after a month, he had gone to Poland and then to Ukraine. Four MOUs and a couple of Treatises beneficial to Indian Defence Forces were signed in Ukraine.
Body Language of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Modi during their meet in Kyiv indicated for sure that something fruitful will be seen in near future. And that is how, Trio of America/NATO, Ukraine and Russia will be indebted to and remember Indian Premier Narendra Modi. He has reportedly discussed prospects for ending the war in Ukraine with President Zelenskyy citing that, India supports “Dialogue and Diplomacy over War”.
This is the First Visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine after she became independent in 1992. As per reports, the meeting was “very Detailed, very Open and very Constructive.” Zelensky wants India to attend Second Peace Talks Summit to be held at the end of this year but has emphasised that he wants “Peace on His Terms only”. PM Narendra Modi gave him assurance to help Materialise Peace Talks in both official and personal capacity. Issue of Purchase of Russian Oil and Modi’s embracing Putin during his visit to Russia in July 24 was clarified by India. The MOUs would probably facilitate supply of Spare Parts of Weapons, Aircrafts, Guns and Submarines/War Ships from Ukraine in case American/Western Sanctions/Blockades prevent Russia from shipping these outside Russia.
India and Russia are old friends and India is trying to forge a positive relationship with Ukraine. If India succeeds in bringing Kyiv and Moscow to the Negotiating Table, it would prove useful in Building a Durable Peace. It will enhance the Global Standing of India to a great extent. Thereafter, proverbially, Sky is/will be the Limit.y
