Whenever there is dissatisfaction against the present Government, the people support the opposition and extend the final mandate to form the new Government. If there is anti-incumbency, there is inevitable decisive change in the present regime. In all over the world in democratic form, elections are displaying either satisfaction or dissatisfaction for the present Government. However, in 2024 Lok Sabha election results, it is clear, there is no dissatisfaction, but yes, there is somewhere on something, simply “no satisfaction” that caused reduced intensity in the support to BJP. This less intensity can be analysed on various counts but most perceptible prominent fact is complacency of most of the BJP MPs who have been thinking, the Modi factor or brand Modi is so strong that there is no need to do continuous Jansampark in their respective constituencies during last five years. Modi factor has been bringing the mandate to BJP since 2014 but in 2024, this factor has caused complacency at local level that had further caused local anti-incumbency.
In 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP got 240 seats with 36.56 per cent vote share and the NDA as a pre-poll alliance secured clear mandate of 290 seats to form the Government. The opposition or mainly Congress Party is reading the election results as a dissatisfaction with Modi Government though the entire opposition tally is less than the single seat share of BJP. Answering the wrong reading of election results, it is necessary to compare the results of 2014 with 2024. Congress after ruling 10 years under the leadership of Manmohan Singh managed to get only 44 seats with 19 per cent vote share only whereas BJP now achieved 240 seats alone with more than 36 per cent vote share. It will be a hara-kiri for Congress not reading at least election result in true sense, after 10 years of alleged dissatisfaction with Modi Govt. Congress got only 99 seats.
It is now perceived everywhere, many BJP supporters are in grief for not securing majority by BJP alone and no one is talking about why the opposition or the Congress is not in a position of forming the Government. Some opposition supporters or sympathizers are clearly reading the “national Story” in this election result and according to them, this “national story” is filled with disapproval of Modi Ji and his policies. However, it is difficult to decode the result into a national story because BJP has swept Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Delhi Himachal Pradesh and almost Gujarat, merely 4 per cent to 9 per cent less vote share in some States, such swept away result in these states cannot build the national story. This mandate is clearly showing no dissatisfaction at national level, only some crunches in some states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The victory in Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Telangana should be talked about and it should be seen that BJP has marked its strong presence in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Congress ruling Karnataka and recently formed Government in Telangana have performed poor in both the States.
It is historic for BJP to form the Government in Odisha and BJD veteran leader, Naveen Patnaik has tested the defeat after long 24 years. No doubt, he has been well accepted a good leader who formed his Government with BJP in 2000. In 2024, BJP with its vote share of 40 per cent secured 78 seats out of total 147 seats. BJP nurtured its leadership, inducted top bureaucrats and intellectuals, one or two good leaders of BJD and invested top leadership tirelessly for these long years that has yielded now in a historic victory. This result in Odisha has given BJP a new hope and faith in eastern India. Now BJP is able to make a good axis of massive support base in Assam, West Bengal and Jharkhand that will certainly affect Bihar too.
The local anti-incumbency against some MPs coupled with the demotivating factor for cadres because of massive influx of other Parties leaders into BJP and tickets were given to them. BJP cadres in a particular constituency has been upbeat on many ideological issues including Ram Mandir, Article 370, etc. but they found a leader being a candidate of BJP in this election who has been abusing the Party ideology for long time. There is nothing wrong to get leaders from other Parties for political gains or strengthening the Party base but taking the leaders and giving them ticket in short span of time without testing his organizational acceptance has certainly demotivated the cadres. Out of all 303 seats of 2019, BJP retained 208 seats in 2024, it already gave 3 seats to its allies and it won 32 new seats.
Balancing the works of seat selection and candidate selection between Parliamentary Board and State level recommendations have somewhere not done well. It was fully surprising thing to notice how Party was perplexed about its own preparation for Asansol constituency. Relocating the candidate like Dilip Ghosh and not reading well the local anti-incumbency in Bankura are some of the examples. In Uttar Pradesh, it is well known that CM, Yogi Adityanath has massive popularity and now deeper understandings about all the local factors, resultantly there was no harm to give them full responsibilities in everything including candidate selection. BJP was much more involved into caste coalition in Uttar Pradesh and for that matter, it accommodated many leaders from other Parties who have been against the BJP ideology for long time, that has certainly reduced the intensity of support.
Less than 1 per cent vote share difference from 2019 to 2024 took a cost of losing 63 seats by BJP, that is fall of 21 per cent in BJP seat share. Merely little variation in vote share has not caused 63 seats loss but the consolidation of some communities in favour of opposition has really given material damage. Out of total 131 SC/ST seats, BJP managed to get 53 this time while it had 77 in 2019. It is common rhetoric that BSP supporters or Dalit votes in 2024 has shifted to SP and Congress in Uttar Pradesh but it should be judged based on issues. Many Dalits are reportedly not happy to see allotment of PM Awas to those people who have already everything in villages. The parameters of allotment of PM Awas are compromised at the level of Panchayat that is giving dissatisfaction to Dalit community and when they got such allotment, the amount was less than what today people are getting. Therefore, imbalance in beneficiaries has been a major issue among poor people, specially Dalit community. If the affluent people at village levels are getting money for Toilet and Awas, it will cause the reversal of support and poor people will not give the credit for their all previous benefits.
Among OBC castes, the division based on reservation was tried with good focus by the opposition because they had experimented already in the past. BJP and the Prime Minister started answering the questions of opposition and it gained the currency in the campaign. Somewhere the Hindu consolidation has been done in many elections only based on nationalism, cultural unity, resurgence of Sanatan Dharma and, it had manifested into Ram Mandir Pran Pratishtha. It was a historic moment in the Indian religious and cultural history. It should have continued rather coming at the pitch of reservation. The narratives set by opposition were divisive which should not have been answered during the campaign.
The fallouts are seen more in caste fragmentation in four major States, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar. BJP lost 54 seats in these four States. This loss is clearly a defeat of strategy to counter the divisive and fake narratives of opposition. Losing 10 seats in Rajasthan and 8 in Karnataka are also the outcome of not so prepared campaign machineries and not cementing more the own ideological narratives. However, in south India except Karnataka, this result is filled with great optimism as shown in the Table, it is clear that in every state of South India, BJP vote share is increased and except Karnataka, the seats are also increased, out of total 132 seats, BJP got 30 seats. More than 16 per cent vote share, defeat in Thiruvananthapuram only by the margin of 16,077 votes and Thrissur victory of more than 74,000 margin, BJP has registered its strong mark in Kerala and this result will certainly affect the 2026 Assembly election. In Tamil Nadu, the efforts with lots of dedication and zeal of K. Annamalai has paid the dividends to BJP because the vote share has gone up to 11.24 per cent and BJP is at second position in 9 Lok Sabha seats. K. Annamalai secured more than 4,50,000 votes and in this seat particularly, it is clear that AIADMK has damaged heavily the prospect of BJP. In Telangana where Congress has recently won the Assembly election, BJP vote share has gone up to 35 per cent that fact is itself writing a future story of replacing BRS and making Telangana, two-way corner fight between Congress and BJP.
Among the middle class and salaried class, the more appealing issues like nationalism and Hindutva were losing the grip, they have been always ready to accept hard economic decisions and their support to Modi Ji leadership is unconditional. This core supports became little passive when they see the narratives of castes and reservation rather Ram Mandir, future strong economic prospects and revolutionary upcoming steps like UCC and Population control. On the opposition front, they were pitching even the issue of inflation though inflation has been all-time low during two months of election. There was less attention towards addressing the issues related to Government staff, encountering the issue of inflation and unemployment, projecting the major marvels of infrastructural developments during these ten years and bringing the attention of youths towards upcoming major IT and manufacturing developments that will certainly boost to the growth and employment.
Basically, the narratives of faith and hope coupled with cultural and religious pride were missing and this gap was filled with the issues which were earlier nowhere before the election. However, NDA as a pre-poll alliance got a comfortable majority and BJP alone got as many as seats what Congress has not won in three elections combined from 2014 to 2024. The Prime Minister is the leader of NDA and his leadership is vetted by the people of India. Many people among his own supporters are apprehensive about the cultural and religious ongoing Santana Dharma works and his crusade against corruption because of his dependence on alliance partners in new formation and, they accept this verdict as an interregnum of Hindu cultural renaissance. However, it is also a fact that the leadership of Prime Minister is not going to be dependent on arithmetic in the Lok Sabha but it will be stronger enough only based on continuous supports of people and his own connects with the people. 2014 post-truth is converting now into “New Normal” that is new growth and development era of Bharat. In coming months, the BJP as a Party may also help to strengthen Prime Minister through giving the victories in three States, Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
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