Himachal Pradesh is one of the beautiful States in India. The State has 4 Lok Sabha seats but politically this State is important as this State reflects message. The State is one of the few States in India where the contest is confined between two major national parties the Congress party and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).
At State level the BJP and the Congress party go for rotatory system of governance like Rajasthan since 1993. The BJP and the Congress party won alternate Assembly elections in the State since 1990. In last 2022 Assembly election the Congress made much hue and cry over its victory over the BJP. But the Congress party shielded the fact that the vote difference between these two parties in 2022 Assembly poll was barely less than 38000 votes. Such slim victory after full five-year tenure of anti-incumbency is only a solace for the Congress party.
If we start since 2004 the Congress party won 3 seats while the BJP won only one seat. In 2004 the Congress party formed government at the Centre. In 2009 LS poll the BJP reversed the pattern and won 3 seats while the Congress party got single seat. In 2014 LS the BJP won all 4 seats with huge margin on all four seats besides 53.85 percent of votes. Again in 2019 LS poll the BJP won all four seats with 69 percent plus vote percent.
The BJP increased its vote share from 2014 LS poll by nearly 16 percent of votes. One important aspect of the BJP such splendid performance in 2019 LS poll was that on 68 Assembly segments within the 4 LS seats the BJP established lead on all 68 ACs. Since 2009 LS poll the BJP vote share is increasing in the State and it’s all likely that BJP vote share of 2024 will be more than its 2019 vote share. The BJP is virtually contesting the elections to maintain its seat tally and increase its vote share.
In all probability only the margin on all four seats matter for the BJP in the State. The BJP even won 3 seats in 2009 when the tally of the BJP decreased from 138 in 2004 to 116 in 2009. The BJP cadres have very grassroots connection with the State population.
It was also speculated that any member from the Gandhi family either Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi may contest from any seat in the State but assessing imminent defeat none of the Gandhi family members dared to contest from the State. The Gandhi family also acknowledges the slim margin of less than 38000 votes in the entire State the Congress party established lead in Assembly poll in 2022.
The Congress party has one of its high-profile leaders from the State Mr. Anand Sharma. He was long term Rajya Sabha member but the Congress party nominated many low-ranking leaders of the party like Ranjita Ranjan, Imran Pratapgrahi, Pramod Tiwari and many more much junior in stature to Mr. Anand Sharma but he denied the chance. Such cruel treatment to Mr Anand Sharma had angered the people of Himachal Pradesh and they will teach lesson to Congress party high command and the Gandhi family for this treachery to the State senior leader.
Himachal Pradesh is one of the 13 States/UTs from where the Congress party did not open its account in 2014 and 2019 LS polls successively. We cannot rule out the possibility that after its poor performance in 2024 LS poll multiple MLAs of the Congress party may resign in mass and the government may fall.
